Technical News | Daily

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR IN TURMOIL AHEAD OF U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

EUR/USD

Forex news: The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report released Friday showed a number of 161K new jobs, which was lower than the anticipated 174K. This triggered a move up after some mixed action at the time of release.

Technical Outlook

The bulls remain in control for now and we expect an encounter with 1.1150 resistance during today’s trading session. The Relative Strength Index is overbought and is showing bearish divergence: price made a higher high while the oscillator shows a lower high. This is a sign of reversal so we may see a bounce lower if 1.1150 holds. The first bearish target is 1.1100 but if this level is hit, the pair may resume bullish movement.

Fundamental Outlook

The Eurogroup Meetings will be today’s only notable event. These are attended by European personalities from the political and financial fields but are closed to the press until they have concluded. A formal statement, containing details of the meetings is released at the end of the day but often participants talk to the press even before the end of the meetings. Volatility may be generated and caution is advised.

GBP/USD

The pair continued higher Friday, mostly due to a disappointing Non-Farm Employment report, which triggered Dollar weakness and allowed price to climb above resistance.

Technical Outlook

The move above 1.2480 brought the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic in deep overbought territory, making us anticipate a retracement back below this level. As long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish but this doesn’t exclude a pullback lower to clear the overbought condition. Once this retracement is complete, the bulls will probably move the pair higher if the Moving Average holds.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major releases for today, thus price direction will be mainly influenced by the technical aspect.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: VOLATILITY AND UNCERTAINTY

EUR/USD

Forex news: Yesterday the US Dollar erased some of the losses incurred during the previous days and the pair retraced closer to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. The week opened with a gap that wasn’t yet filled completely

Technical Outlook

The next direction depends on the result of the U.S. Presidential Election but strictly from a technical point of view, we expect a bounce higher once the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is hit. Yesterday’s retracement was expected and signalled early by the overbought condition of the oscillators as well as the presence of bearish divergence but the medium term uptrend is still in place. The levels to watch are 1.1150 as resistance and the 50 EMA as support.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United States will decide their next President and the US Dollar will be heavily influenced by the Election. Other than that, there are no other major economic indicators but we expect strong volatility and thus, we recommend caution.

GBP/USD

The pair had a bearish trading session yesterday as the greenback strengthened against the Pound. Price is now trading below the resistance at 1.2480, but still above the moving average.

Technical Outlook

We expect an encounter with the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but once and if price gets there, the chances of another push higher will increase. The 50 EMA is very close to the horizontal support at 1.2325, creating a confluence zone that will be tough for the bears to break. The US Dollar and consequently the pair will be heavily influenced by the U.S. Presidential Election.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the British Manufacturing Production is released, with a forecast change of 0.5% compared to the previous 0.2%. The indicator tracks changes in the total value of goods generated by the manufacturing sector and higher values suggest increased economic activity, thus a stronger Pound.

[GDMFX]

[B]FOREX NEWS: THE AFTERMATH. ELECTION RACE COMES TO AN END

EUR/USD[/B]

Forex news: The United States Electoral race still didn’t have a clear winner at the time of writing and the pair remained inside a tight range for most of the day. Volatility is still expected, as soon as we come nearer to a clear result.

Technical Outlook

The next direction still depends on the result of the U.S. Presidential Election so we cannot make an accurate prediction. For now the pair is having trouble moving away from the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and looks like both sides are reluctant to commit to a direction. The levels to watch are at the time of writing 1.1060 as immediate resistance and 1.1025 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major indicators on the economic calendar but surely the U.S. Dollar will continue to be influenced by the result of the Election and volatility will be high.

GBP/USD

Despite a better than expected value for the British Manufacturing Production, the Pound weakened slightly against the greenback yesterday and the pair touched the 50 EMA ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election conclusion.

Technical Outlook

The pair is struggling to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and probably the result of the U.S. Election will be the catalyst that will decide the next move. The current important levels are 1.2480 as resistance and 1.2325 as support, with the 50 EMA playing an important role as well. So far the picture remains blurry until a definitive election result is announced.

Fundamental Outlook

Today there are no major releases on the British economic calendar so we expect the pair’s direction to be decided by the U.S. Election results and the technical aspect.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: THE US DOLLAR REACTS POSITIVELY TO THE NEW U.S. PRESIDENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: The United States has a new president and the result created a strong reaction, as expected. After a spike, the US Dollar recovered and erased all losses, even advancing against its counterpart.

Technical Outlook

It seems like the Trump win was well received by the markets and now the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, with strong US Dollar momentum. We will probably see increased volatility during the days to come, but the overall bias for the time being is bearish, so we anticipate a move closer to 1.0900 and possibly 1.0860. To the upside the first barrier is represented by the level at 1.0995.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases but the US Dollar will still remain under the influence of the recent events. The irregular movement may continue, thus caution is recommended.

GBP/USD

The impact of the U.S. Election was lower on this pair than on EUR/USD and overall we had a mixed session yesterday, without a clear winner.

Technical Outlook

The pair failed to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and is still trading between 1.2480 resistance and 1.2325 support. The picture remains blurry as the pair is still in a range until one of the mentioned levels is broken decisively. We may see US Dollar strength but as long as price is above the 50 EMA, our bias is slightly bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases for today but we may see a stronger response to the U.S. Presidential Election so the risk remains high.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR CONTINUES TO DRIFT AFTER SURPRISE TRUMP WIN

EUR/USD

Forex news: Yesterday the pair continued to move lower but as it was expected, movement was slower than a day before. Support was almost touched and price is now showing rejection.

Technical Outlook

The current momentum is bearish as the US Dollar strengthened after the Election result came out but the support around 1.0860 was tested yesterday and rejection was clearly seen. Also, price travelled a long distance south without clear retracement and the Stochastic is oversold for the second time in a short while, so all this makes us anticipate a bounce higher, possibly into the resistance at 1.0950.

Fundamental Outlook

U.S. banks will be closed today in observance of Veterans Day, so volatility may be affected by this; however, at 3:00 pm GMT the University of Michigan will release their Consumer Sentiment survey, which shows the opinions of consumers on current economic conditions. The survey acts as a leading indicator of consumer spending but the impact may be muted by the recent U.S. developments; under normal circumstances, higher values than the forecast 87.4, strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair remained above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average for the entire part of yesterday’s trading session as the US Dollar doesn’t seem to be affected much by the Presidential Election. Also the session lacked any economic releases and this contributed to the ranging movement.

Technical Outlook

The bulls are struggling to break 1.2480 resistance and if they succeed, we will probably see increased buying pressure and thus higher prices. A bounce lower from this level would show that the ranging period is not yet over and that the pair is headed for the first support, located at 1.2325. The 50 period Exponential Moving Average was touched many times and offered support but price didn’t bounce strongly after touching it so its strength is fading and this increases the chance of a break if price touches is again.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the rest of the week, the Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today. Price direction will be decided by the technical aspect and the U.S. Consumer survey.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SHOWS MIXED REACTION. RANGING SESSION AHEAD

EUR/USD

Forex News: The U.S. Consumer Sentiment released Friday by the University of Michigan showed a 91.6 reading, better than the forecast 87.4. This added more strength to the US Dollar and generated another bearish session.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved below 1.0850 support but it stopped right after breaking it, so the strength of the bears may be fading. There are small signs of rejection and the Stochastic is oversold, suggesting that we may see a pullback today. If this is the case, price is likely to climb closer to 1.0910 which is now resistance but we don’t expect a break today. To the downside the first known support is 1.0800 but we don’t believe it will be broken today either. Most likely we will have a ranging session, without a clear winner.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only notable event is a speech delivered by ECB President Mario Draghi at the Italian Treasury, in Rome. The scheduled time is 3:00 pm GMT but the impact on the Euro is hard to anticipate because it will depend on Draghi’s attitude and matters discussed.

GBP/USD

Despite strengthening against most of its peers, the US Dollar is not able to win the short term battle against the Pound. Friday the pair continued to move higher, with brief moments of bearish action.

Technical Outlook

The pair created a minor resistance at 1.2675 and now the oscillators are approaching overbought. Also, both oscillators are showing bearish divergence – price is making higher highs and the indicators are making lower highs – and this suggests that we may see a move south today. If this is the case, 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will offer the first support zone and we don’t expect the pair to move below it.

Fundamental Outlook

There are no major indicators on the Pound’s schedule for today and this may contribute to a ranging session.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: BUSY DAY, HIGH VOLATILITY: GERMAN GDP, U.S. RETAIL SALES AND BRITISH INFLATION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex news: The sellers remained in control yesterday and the US Dollar continued to strengthen, taking the pair into 1.0710 support. ECB President Mario Draghi didn’t make significant comments during his speech in Italy.

Technical Outlook

The pair travelled a long distance south since the U.S. Presidential Election and although we expect the bearish behaviour to continue, a retracement to the upside is becoming more and more likely. The Stochastic and the Relative Strength Index are now both oversold and price seems to react to the support at 1.0710, so the chances of a pullback have increased. After this potential pullback is complete, the downside movement will probably resume.

Fundamental Outlook

At 7:00 am GMT the Preliminary version of the German Gross Domestic Product is released and anticipated to show a 0.3% change compared to the previous 0.4%. The German economy is an important pillar of the Eurozone and the GDP is the main gauge of an economy’s performance so a higher reading will probably bring Euro strength.

The U.S. Retail Sales will be today’s main mover for the US Dollar. Scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT, the indicator is expected to show a 0.6% change and because sales made at retail levels are a big part of the entire economic activity, higher numbers usually generate a stronger US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair descended yesterday and breached the support at 1.2480. The session was controlled by the bears, without any important economic releases.

Technical Outlook

Price is now attempting to break below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below the support at 1.2480 but failure to do so will most likely result in another move into 1.2675 resistance. A break below the Moving Average would put control back in the hands of the bears and would make 1.2325 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s an important day for the Pound, with two major events: the first is the release of the Consumer Price Index, which is the main gauge of inflation and is scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The expected change is 1.1% (previous 1.0%), with higher values being beneficial for the Pound.

The second event is scheduled half an hour later, at 10:00 am GMT: the Inflation Report Hearings. During these hearings, BOE Governor Mark Carney will testify on inflation and economic outlook before the Parliament’s Treasury Committee. Volatility is likely to increase and caution is recommended.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT IN JEOPARDY, OSCILLATORS WARN OF POSSIBLE REBOUNDS

EUR/USD

The pair retraced higher yesterday but a worse than expected German GDP combined with optimistic U.S. Retail Sales, nullified almost all Euro gains and brought the pair closer to support again.

Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action created minor resistance at 1.0815 where we saw a pin bar (rejection candle) followed by a hefty drop. Considering this type a behaviour, we anticipate a break of 1.0710 support but the Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are still “dangerously” close to their respective oversold levels, so we don’t exclude the possibility of another push higher. Overall our bias remains bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only notable release is the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), an indicator that tracks changes in the price that producers charge for their goods and services. The PPI has inflationary implications because a higher price charged by the producer will be eventually paid by the consumer. Today’s anticipated change is 0.3%, the scheduled time is 1:30 pm GMT and usually, higher values strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The greenback strengthened on the back of strong Retail Sales, while the British Consumer Price Index disappointed and as a result the pair dropped below the Moving Average yesterday, completing another bearish session.

Technical Outlook

The recent drop below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and below 1.2480 will most likely bring in additional sellers that will take the pair into 1.2325 and even further into bearish territory. Moves to the upside may be capped by the 50 EMA and by 1.2480 and we expect price to resume downside movement if it reaches the zone that was just mentioned.

Fundamental Outlook

Today we take a look at the British jobs situation with the release of the Claimant Count Change, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT. The indicator shows changes in the total number of people who asked for unemployment related benefits and higher numbers usually weaken the Pound; today’s expected number is 1.9K, while the previous was 0.7K

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR CONTINUES ITS SUPREMACY AHEAD OF FED CHAIR YELLEN’S TESTIMONY

EUR/USD

Yesterday the pair slowed down compared to a day before but the sellers remained in control despite a slightly disappointing reading posted by the U.S. Producer Price Index. Support was breached but no significant advances were made after that.

Technical Outlook

The oscillators are now climbing slowly but price is still going downhill. This is a sign of bullish divergence and is an early warning of possible reversals or at least pullbacks to the upside. The first resistance and target for such a potential retracement is located at 1.0760 but if the pair remains below 1.0710, it means that the level may turn into resistance and in this case, we will see a continuation of the bearish trend.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s an important day for the US Dollar, starting with the release of the CORE version U.S. Consumer Price Index, scheduled for release at 1:30 pm GMT. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation but the CORE version excludes food and energy because these are considered too volatile; the FOMC usually pays more attention to this version and that’s why it tends to be more important for the US Dollar. Higher percentages than the expected 0.2% have the potential to take the pair lower.

At 3:00 pm GMT, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will testify before the Joint Economic Committee, on economic outlook. The event is likely to generate increased volatility and possibly irregular movement, thus caution is recommended.

GBP/USD

The British Claimant Count Change showed yesterday a worse than expected value but the Pound wasn’t strongly affected and the pair had a choppy trading session.

Technical Outlook

It looks like the bulls are having trouble breaking 1.2480 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average to the upside. This may suggest that a drop will soon follow and if this is the case, we expect the pair to find support at 1.2325. The US Dollar is gaining against most of its counterparts and the Pound is not showing clear signs of strength so we favor the short side for the time being.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales are today’s headline for the Pound. Scheduled at 9:30 am GMT, the indicator tracks changes in the total value of sales made at retail levels and can have a hefty impact on the Pound, with higher numbers strengthening it; today’s expected change is 0.5%, while the previous was 0.0%.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: ECB’S DRAGHI SPEAKS IN FRANKFURT, EURO HEADS FOR SUPPORT

EUR/USD

The CORE version of the United States CPI showed yesterday a value below analysts’ expectations and this created brief moments of bullish price action. However, most of the gains were then erased and overall we had a choppy trading session.

Technical Outlook

We have a minor support, established at 1.0665 and if this level is broken, the next important one is located around 1.0525 but we don’t expect it to be reached this week. The oscillators are exiting oversold, so they are still favouring a stronger retracement to the upside, possibly into 1.0760; however, the medium term trend is still bearish so we don’t exclude the possibility of a drop through 1.0665.

Fundamental Outlook

European Central Bank President Draghi will speak today in Frankfurt at the 26th European Banking Congress and this may be a strong reason for volatility. The Euro is likely to show irregular movement during the speech, depending on how traders will interpret the things the President will say, as well as his attitude. The speech is scheduled at 8:30 am GMT and caution is recommended.

GBP/USD

The British Retail Sales released yesterday, showed a surprising improvement of 1.9% (anticipated 0.5%) but despite all this, the pair remained below resistance and had a mixed trading session.

Technical Outlook

Despite positive British data, the pair is struggling to move above 1.2480 and remains very close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This suggests that the Pound is still weak against the US Dollar and that we are likely to see a drop into 1.2325 if 1.2480 is not broken soon. Also, a decisive break of the 50 EMA would strengthen this view but as long as price remains close to the Moving Average, the pair is ranging, without clear direction.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major releases for the last day of the trading week so the technical side will decide today’s direction.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: DEEP OVERSOLD LEVELS CALL FOR BULLISH PULLBACKS

EUR/USD

The pair completed another bearish session Friday and the Dollar continued to strengthen against most of its counterparts. The pair is now approaching long term support but pullbacks are due.

Technical Outlook

The move that started with the U.S. Presidential Election is overextended, as price has travelled a long distance without a proper retracement. On a Daily chart we can clearly see that the pair didn’t have a bullish day since the Election, so it’s probably time for a move north; the oscillators have been trading below or very close to their oversold levels and this further increases the chances of bullish action. That being said, keep in mind that the overall bias is still bearish so we are likely to see a touch of 1.0525 zone soon. To the upside, the first level to watch is 1.0665, followed by 1.0700 zone.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 4:00 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will testify in Strasbourg before the European Parliament about the European Central Bank’s Annual Report. Whenever heads of central banks testify or speak publicly, volatility is likely to surge and the currency may behave erratically so we recommend caution if trading at the time. This is the only indicator that may affect the pair, so until its release we may see ranging price action.

GBP/USD

Friday the bears solidified their control over the pair and moved it comfortably below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. Support was touched and now a “bounce or break” scenario is in play but the trading week ended before we could get a clear answer.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.2325 was hit and price seems to react to it, so today we will probably see if we are dealing with a bounce or a break. We favor the short side, considering the US Dollar strength seen lately but the oscillators are close to oversold so we don’t exclude a bounce into the 50 period EMA. In the event of a break of 1.2325, the next target will be 1.2090 but we don’t expect it to be reached today unless surprising events take place.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a lacklustre economic calendar today, so the technical aspect will determine the pair’s direction. Slow, choppy movement is also a distinct possibility.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR SURRENDERS SHORT TERM DOMINANCE

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was rather slow but it had a bullish bias, as the pair started a retracement which was anticipated due to the overextended condition of price. The bearish trend is still intact for the time being.

Technical Outlook

Although the pair moved higher yesterday, our bias remains bearish overall as the US Dollar is still going strong. The current move up is a much needed retracement that is likely to continue higher before downside movement can resume. The first potential resistance is located at 1.0665, followed by the more important 50 period Exponential Moving Average (the EMA will probably descend below 1.0710 until price gets there). To the downside, the low at 1.0570 is the first potential support and a break will mark the resumption of the downtrend.

Fundamental Outlook

The only notable indicator on today’s economic calendar is the U.S. Existing Home Sales, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 5.43M compared to the previous 5.47M (these are annualized numbers shown in a monthly format). Higher readings are usually beneficial for the US Dollar because they show a healthy house market but the effect is not always spectacular.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the Pound strengthened without apparent reason and the pair bounced at support, moving right back into resistance. The Moving Average was surpassed and the short term control belongs to the bulls.

Technical Outlook

The level at 1.2325 offered good support and the pair bounced perfectly off of it, breaking the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and reaching 1.2480 resistance. At the time of writing 1.2480 is not yet broken but if the buyers can take price above it, we will probably see an extended move to the upside. The next resistance is located at 1.2675 but we don’t expect it to be touched today.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will be affected today by the release of the Public Sector Net Borrowing, an indicator that shows the difference between spending and income for the government and public corporations. Lower numbers are beneficial for the Pound but the indicator often has just a mild impact. The time of release is 9:30 am GMT and the expected figure is 5.9B (previous 10.1B).

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: FOMC MEETING MINUTES EYED FOR POSSIBLE RATE HINTS

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was dominated by indecision and both sides looked reluctant to commit to a clear direction. U.S. house data was better than anticipated but the release had a mild impact.

Technical Outlook

The pair is in ranging mode until it breaks 1.0665 to the upside or 1.0570 to the downside. The oscillators are not showing an extreme condition so they don’t offer clear signals for the time being. If the upside prevails and immediate resistance is broken, the next target will be the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and if that mark is hit, we expect bearish action to resume.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT the US Dollar will be affected by the release of the Durable Goods Orders (goods with a life expectancy of at least three years). The expected change is 1.2%, a strong increase from the previous -0.3% and usually, higher numbers show a thriving economy, thus a stronger US Dollar.

Later in the day, at 7:00 pm GMT the Fed will release the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which contain details about the latest FOMC meeting as well as potential hints about a future rate hike. There has been speculation about a possible rate increase in December so if the Minutes point towards the same thing, the US Dollar is likely to strengthen.

GBP/USD

The bulls failed to break resistance yesterday and the US Dollar erased some of the previous losses. Movement was slower than a day before and the 50 EMA was not breached.

Technical Outlook

If the bounce at 1.2480 can extend past the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair is likely to move into the support located at 1.2325 during the days to come. For now our bias is neutral, waiting to see if the moving average will be broken or if it will reject price higher. Today the technical aspect will be secondary to the fundamental because both the US Dollar and the Pound will be affected by important releases.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the British HM Treasury will release the Autumn Forecast Statement, a document containing information about the government’s budget for the upcoming year as well as an economic outlook. The release can have a strong impact so caution is recommended.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: U.S. TRADERS STEP AWAY FROM THE MARKET FOR THANKSGIVING DAY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Before the FOMC Minutes, the US Dollar strengthened against the Euro, partly due to a better than expected reading for the U.S. Durable Goods Orders; the Minutes revealed that a hike is due “relatively soon” and this is likely to generate additional Dollar strength.

Technical Outlook

The pair broke the minor support at 1.0570 and is now resting on 1.0525. The greenback seems to have recovered the strength from a few days ago, so we are likely to see a break of the mentioned support. If this is the case, the next major hurdle is located at 1.0460 which is the lowest point reached in 2015; however, until price gets there we may see some form of bullish pullback, especially if the oscillators will become oversold.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the United States celebrate Thanksgiving Day and this will probably affect volatility; also, no major economic indicators will be released and all this may generate irregular movement throughout the day. On the Euro side the most notable release is the German IFO Business Climate survey, scheduled at 9:00 am GMT and expected to show 110.6 (previous 110.5). The survey is derived from the opinions of about 7,000 businesses regarding economic conditions and usually higher numbers show optimism and bring euro strength.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued its erratic movement yesterday and the pair wasn’t much affected by the FOMC Meeting Minutes. Overall price remained in a range and didn’t threaten support but came close to resistance.

Technical Outlook

After an initial move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, price reversed and moved back above it, showing that for the time being control doesn’t belong to either side. The latest impulse is bullish and the pair is approaching the resistance at 1.2480 but it’s not clear if the bulls will manage to break this barrier. Today’s session will be affected by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday and we expect irregular movement.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a slow day for British economic indicators so the focus will be on the technical aspect and the pair will also be affected by the U.S. Thanksgiving Day, as mentioned before.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: SUPPORT REJECTS FALLING PRICES, US DOLLAR STILL IN MEDIUM TERM CONTROL

EUR/USD

Forex News: Thanksgiving Day brought low volatility, especially during the New York session and the US Dollar gave back some of the previous gains. The German IFO survey came close to analysts’ forecast so the release didn’t have a notable impact.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0525 rejected downside momentum yesterday and now the bulls are struggling to take the pair above the resistance at 1.0570. If they succeed in doing so, we will probably see a move into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.0650. The day ahead lacks major economic releases and we expect a ranging session, without special developments. That being said, keep in mind that the pair is still in a downtrend and the US Dollar shows signs of strength.

Fundamental Outlook

We have a lacklustre day as far as the economic calendar is concerned so the main focus will be the technical side.

GBP/USD

The Pound-Dollar moved without conviction yesterday, ranging between the Moving Average and the resistance at 1.2480. This behaviour was partly generated by the U.S. celebrating Thanksgiving Day and partly by the lack of British releases.

Technical Outlook

The ranging period is likely to continue until 1.2480 resistance or the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is broken. When one of these events will take place, we expect price to continue moving in that direction but until a clear break occurs, our view is neutral on the pair. The oscillators are moving in the middle of their channels, lacking a clear direction and adding to the overall uncertainty.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Second Estimate version of the Gross Domestic Product is released today at 9:30 am GMT and may be a catalyst for a breakout. The GDP is the main gauge of overall economy performance, thus higher numbers than the anticipated 0.5% may bring Pound strength.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: DRAGHI TESTIFIES ON BREXIT CONSEQUENCES. EURO WILL NOT REMAIN INDIFFERENT

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday’s movement was choppy and without special developments. The pair remained above 1.0570 but bearish pressure is mounting and rejection candles are present.

Technical Outlook

As you can see on the chart above, the candles show long wicks in their upper parts and this is a sign of bearish pressure. Price came close to the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but the bulls couldn’t even manage to touch this form of resistance and the overall trend is down so we expect to see a move below 1.0570. However, keep in mind that on a Daily chart both oscillators are deep in oversold territory so a stronger move north is not out of the question, especially if the 50 EMA will be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s only important event is the testimony of ECB President Mario Draghi, delivered before the European Parliament’s Economic Committee on the topic of monetary developments, economic perspective and Brexit consequences. These are all delicate subjects that may affect strongly the market, thus we recommend caution. The scheduled time is 2:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

The Second Estimate version of the British GDP, announced Friday matched analysts’ expectations (0.5% change) and the release didn’t have a strong impact. The pair remained in a tight range.

Technical Outlook

Price is trapped between the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the resistance at 1.2480 but the chances of a breakout are very high, especially because the distance between the two barriers is so small. Given the fact that the pair has been moving almost completely sideways lately, our view is neutral until a strong move or a clear breakout occurs. Once that happens, the pair is likely to continue in the direction of the break.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major news announcements for today and this makes the technical aspect the deciding factor for the pair’s direction.

[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: A FULL DAY AHEAD: GERMAN INFLATION DATA, U.S. GDP AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY

EUR/USD

Forex News: After a brief move above the resistance located around 1.0650, the bears took control of yesterday’s session and the pair descended to touch support. The higher than usual volatility may be attributed partly to Draghi’s testimony.

Technical Outlook

It seems like the US Dollar is trying to gain back control over the pair, pushing it lower for another attempt to break the key support located at 1.0525. The oscillators are moving downwards, supporting a bearish move and the pair is trading below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. As long as things remain this way, we favour the short side and anticipate a break of 1.0525.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:00 pm GMT we take a first look at German inflation with the release of the Consumer Price Index. The indicator acts as a measure of inflation, showing changes in the price that consumers pay for the goods and services they purchase. A higher change than the forecast 0.1% can strengthen the Euro.

The Preliminary version of the U.S. Gross Domestic Product is released later at 1:30 pm GMT, with an anticipated change of 3.0% (previous 2.9%). The GDP is the main gauge of overall economic performance and usually a higher reading triggers strength for the currency.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT the Consumer Confidence survey comes out, showing the opinions of U.S. citizens about economic and business conditions. A higher number than the forecast 101.3 would show optimism, acting as a leading indicator of consumer spending, and would strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Similar to the Euro-Dollar, this pair climbed above resistance early during yesterday’s trading session but soon gave up all the gains and dropped lower.

Technical Outlook

We can consider yesterday’s move above 1.2480 a false break, so the zone will still act as resistance in the future. The bounce lower brought the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and now we can expect a touch of 1.2325. It must be noted that the Moving Average is flat, without clear direction and the pair is still in range mode until it clearly moves above 1.2480 or below 1.2325.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule major economic releases so the pair’s direction will be decided by the U.S. data mentioned earlier and by the technical aspect.

[GDMFX]

[B]FOREX NEWS: ADP NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT DATA TO REVEAL THE DOLLAR’S NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD[/B]

Forex News: Despite the multitude of economic indicators released yesterday, the pair remained relatively unfazed and stayed between support and resistance for the entire day.

Technical Outlook

Price touched the support at 1.0570 and quickly bounced to the upside, touching the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This leaves us with a bounce-or-break scenario where the 50 EMA plays the biggest role: a break would signify a short term victory for the bulls and would make 1.0650 the first target for the day, while a bounce lower will test 1.0570 support again. The next targets would become 1.0700 zone and 1.0525 but we don’t expect a break of either one unless surprises occur.

Fundamental Outlook

At 10:00 am GMT we take another look at European inflation with the release of the Eurozone Flash Estimate Consumer Price Index (CPI). The indicator is the main gauge of inflation and can bring Euro strength if it posts a reading above the forecast 0.6%.

Later in the day, at 1:15 pm GMT the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change comes out, showing changes in the number of employed people in the U.S., excluding the farming sector and government. The indicator is less important than the Non-Farm Payrolls released Friday but nonetheless, higher numbers than the anticipated 161K can strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

Price action was mostly dominated by the bulls yesterday and the pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but for the time being, the ranging period is still not over.

Technical Outlook

The pair moved above the 50 period EMA and above the resistance at 1.2480 but as seen a day before, price had similar behaviour and then reversed to the downside. This means that we still don’t consider 1.2480 broken and we don’t exclude the possibility of another fall through the Moving Average. The pair’s direction remains uncertain and range-bound trading is still in play.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Bank Stress Test results are revealed today and this may have an impact on the Pound but may also go mostly unnoticed. During these tests, synthetic market conditions are applied to large banks to determine their financial stability and potential risks; the time of the release is 7:00 am GMT.

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[GDMFX]

FOREX NEWS: NFP TO MAKE-OR-BREAK US DOLLAR’S TREND?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the pair remained between support and resistance and this goes to show that both sides are reluctant to commit to a clear direction. In the afternoon the U.S. Manufacturing PMI posted a better than expected value and this brought limited greenback strength.

Technical Outlook

The support at 1.0570 rejected price higher but bullish momentum stopped at the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. This is typical behaviour for a ranging market so our view is mostly neutral until 1.0570 support or 1.0650 resistance is broken decisively. However, the pair is in a downtrend from a longer term perspective so we slightly favour the short side but keep in mind that today’s U.S. jobs data will overshadow the technical aspect.

Fundamental Outlook

The most important U.S. employment data of the month comes out today at 1:30 pm GMT: the Non-Farm Payrolls (also known as Non-Farm Employment Change). The indicator tracks changes in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and usually generates very strong movement but the pair is prone to sudden changes of direction, observed better on the lower time frames. A higher change than the forecast 165K usually benefits the US Dollar and brings the pair lower.

GBP/USD

The pair finally broke out of the horizontal channel yesterday and the bulls managed to drive it into the next resistance. The move was mostly based on Pound strength, not necessarily Dollar weakness.

Technical Outlook

The resistance around 1.2480 is now clearly broken but we can see rejection at the next resistance, located at 1.2675. The Relative Strength Index and the Stochastic are now both overbought due to the long distance travelled yesterday and this combined with the long upper wick of the latest candle, suggests that a bounce lower is next. If the current resistance is surpassed, we expect the bounce to occur around 1.2770.

Fundamental Outlook

The main event will definitely be the release of the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls but on the Pound side it’s worth mentioning the release of the Construction PMI, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a reading of 52.3. Usually a higher reading indicates optimism but the impact is low if the actual number matches the forecast.

We hope you had a profitable week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.