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683

FOREX NEWS: PAIRS SLIDE LOWER, US DOLLAR SHOWS SIGNS OF RECOVERY

EUR/USD

Forex News: Friday the pair initially moved above the 50 period EMA but reacted to resistance and dropped back below the Moving Average. U.S. President Trump spoke at the Conservative Political Action Conference but the speech was announced late and came as a surprise.


Technical Outlook

The pair found resistance at 1.0610 and posted a nice drop that took it below the Exponential Moving Average. The Stochastic has crossed downwards in overbought territory and price shows lower highs and lower lows, which is a characteristic of a downtrend, thus making us anticipate a drop into 1.0525. However if price moves higher from the current level, then a new higher low will be created, and the pair may be entering a ranging period.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s main event is the release of the U.S. Durable Goods Orders, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT. The indicator shows changes in the total value of purchase orders for long lasting goods, with a life expectancy of at least 3 years. Higher values than the forecast 1.6% (previous -0.5%) usually strengthen the US Dollar but the impact is limited if the actual number comes close to analysts’ expectations.

GBP/USD

Friday the US Dollar strengthened and the pair dropped, nullifying all the gains accumulated a day before and leaving market participants with more uncertainty regarding the next direction.



Technical Outlook

The bulls ran out of steam at 1.2550 resistance and the pair dropped sharply to touch the recently broken bearish trend line. The way price behaves here will offer clues about future direction: if price responds well to the trend line and bounces higher, we expect another move into 1.2550 (not necessarily today) and otherwise, 1.2420 will be probably broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is light today, without any major news announcements so we may get a ranging session, with price direction mainly affected by the technical aspect.

684

FOREX NEWS: U.S. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: A LIFELINE FOR THE US DOLLAR?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The first day of the week was controlled by the bulls despite a better than expected value for the U.S. Durable Goods Orders. The pair moved above the 50 period EMA and resistance was tested but not broken.


Technical Outlook

Yesterday’s price action created a higher low and the pair moved above the 50 Exponential Moving Average, showing bullish signs. However, the resistance at 1.0610 is not broken at the time of writing and this means that the way price behaves here may decide the future medium term direction: a break will make the bias bullish and 1.0650 will become the first target, otherwise the pair is headed towards 1.0525 zone once again.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s main event is the release of the U.S. Preliminary Gross Domestic Product, scheduled at 1:30 pm GMT and expected to show a 2.1% change compared to the previous 1.9%. The GDP is an economy’s main performance gauge and higher numbers usually strengthen the currency although the effect may take some while to materialize.

Later in the day, at 3:00 pm GMT we have another U.S. release: the Consumer Confidence survey, which tries to gauge the opinions of about 5,000 households regarding current and future economic conditions. The forecast is 111.1 and numbers above this value usually strengthen the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair had a mixed session Monday, without major advances to either side but we saw another failed attempt to move below 1.2420, which resulted in a bounce higher.


Technical Outlook

The pair has tried several times to break 1.2420 and has established another support at 1.2385 but it remains in a range overall. The current move up is likely to reach the 50 period Exponential Moving Average but there it will also encounter the resistance at 1.2480 and given the current conditions, we don’t expect that level to be broken.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound has a light economic calendar for today, without any major economic releases, thus the U.S. events and the technical side will be the factors that will decide direction.

685

FOREX NEWS: CHOPPINESS CONTINUES, BREAKOUTS ON THE HORIZON


EUR/USD

Forex News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product showed a change of 1.9%, below analysts’ expectation of 2.1% and this contributed to bullish price action for the pair yesterday. Despite a better than expected U.S. Consumer Confidence survey released later in the day, the US Dollar couldn’t drive the pair lower.


Technical Outlook

Price has moved above the resistance at 1.0610 for the second time in a short while and it seems like the bulls are taking control of price action, although volatility remains relatively low. Price is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and above resistance, with the Relative Strength Index showing some upside momentum so we expect to see a climb into 1.0650 but once the RSI becomes overbought, the pair is likely to reverse, especially if this happens near resistance and volatility remains low.

Fundamental Outlook

Early today, at 2:00 am GMT, U.S. President Trump will speak before the Congress about healthcare and other topics. The impact of this speech is not known but caution is recommended. Later in the day, at 1:00 pm GMT the German Preliminary Consumer Price index comes out, showing changes in the price paid by consumers for the goods and services they purchase. This is the main gauge of German inflation and plays an important role for overall European inflation, with higher values than the expected 0.6% strengthening the Euro.

The last important release of the day is the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and expected to post a figure of 56.2. The survey acts as a leading indicator of economic health, derived from the opinions of purchasing managers and usually a higher value strengthens the US Dollar but the impact is often limited if the actual number matches expectations.

GBP/USD

The pair completed another lacklustre day yesterday, without any major developments on the fundamental scene and with choppy price action, which lacked clear direction.


Technical Outlook

Resistance was touched and price moved lower but failed to break support and now appears to be headed higher; this behaviour is a clear indication that neither bulls nor bears are in control and the pair lacks direction. As long as price remains between 1.2420 and 1.2480 and the 50 Exponential Moving Average is flat, we consider it in a range and our bias is neutral, expecting a strong breakout.

Fundamental Outlook

Today at 9:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by the release of the British Manufacturing PMI, a survey of purchasing managers from the manufacturing sector. The indicator usually brings Pound strength if it posts a higher reading than today’s forecast of 55.7 but the impact is often mild.

686

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR GAINS THE UPPER HAND, BUYERS LIKELY TO RETALIATE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar finally showed signs of strength yesterday and pushed the pair lower after another false break of resistance. The pair is still not clearly trending but at least it moves in a more decisive manner.


Technical Outlook

After another failed push above 1.0610, price moved below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and continued lower into 1.0525 support. If the US Dollar strength seen yesterday will continue today, we expect to see a move below the current support and into 1.0460 but a bullish pullback is very likely before the next support is reached. As long as the pair remains below the 50 EMA, our bias is bearish.

Fundamental Outlook

The day’s highlight is the release of the Eurozone Consumer Price Index, scheduled at 10:00 am GMT and expected to show a change of 1.8%, same as previous; however, the release is likely to have just a medium impact because the German CPI, which accounts for an important part of overall European inflation, was already released yesterday. Normally, higher inflation brings strength for the currency.

GBP/USD

Yesterday the pair finally broke out of the tight range it was trapped in for a long while and key support was broken, opening the door for additional bearish movement.


Technical Outlook

The recent breakout will probably generate a move into 1.2250 support but before that can happen, it’s very possible to see a re-test of 1.2350 from below. If this previous support turns into resistance, then the chances of a move into 1.2250 will increase, otherwise the pair is likely to re-enter a ranging condition. The oscillators are becoming oversold and this makes a pullback more likely.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Construction PMI is released today at 9:30 am GMT and is the only notable event for the Pound. This survey acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health but the impact is usually low if the actual number matches analysts’ forecast, which for today is 52.2, same as previous.

687

FOREX NEWS: OVERSOLD LEVELS CALL FOR BULLISH PULLBACKS


EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the Eurozone CPI showed that inflation is improving but despite this, the pair descended below 1.0525 after a small bullish pullback. Volatility remained relatively high and price approached minor support.


Technical Outlook

The fact that 1.0525 support was broken yesterday is a major victory for the bears but it must be noted that this level was broken before and price returned above it almost immediately. Also, we have minor support around 1.0495 and the Stochastic is close to oversold, so we expect to see a bounce higher. If the pair remains below 1.0525, the next target will become 1.0460, otherwise the move up may find resistance at the 50 period EMA.

Fundamental Outlook

At 3:00 pm GMT the U.S. Non-Manufacturing PMI (also called Services PMI) is released, showing the opinions of about 400 purchasing managers regarding the condition of the services sector. The forecast is 56.5, same as previous and usually numbers above it, strengthen the US Dollar.

The last event of the week is a speech delivered by Fed Chair Yellen at the Executives Club of Chicago on the topic of economic outlook. The speech should be treated with caution because it may spark increased volatility; the time is 6:00 pm GMT.

GBP/USD

The British Construction PMI released yesterday matched analysts’ expectations and the event went mostly unnoticed but the pair continued lower and came very close to 1.2250 support.


Technical Outlook

The last candles show long wicks in both their upper and lower parts, which is a clear sign of indecision but also a warning that the bearish move will retrace higher. On top of that, both oscillators are moving into oversold territory, further increasing the chances of a move north. If this type of move occurs today, we don’t expect it to surpass 1.2350 but if the pair moves below 1.2250 before the mentioned pullback, the extent should be limited.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Services PMI is the last in this week’s series and shows the opinions of purchasing managers from the services sector regarding economic conditions in said sector. The impact is often low but usually, higher values than the expected 54.2 bring Pound strength; the time of release is 9:30 am GMT.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.

688

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR ON THE ROPES AGAIN, RESISTANCE THREATENED


EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair moved higher for the entire trading session Friday, with the most distance covered during Fed Chair Yellen’s speech, despite the fact that she mentioned a possible rate hike at the next Fed meeting.


Technical Outlook

Price travelled a very long distance compared to previous days and this usually generates a move to the opposite side in the form of a retracement. First resistance is located at 1.0630 and we expect it to be hit early in the day, then price to return lower but as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, our bias is bullish. A break of 1.0630 will open the door for 1.0680 but price will most likely retrace again before hitting that target.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Factory Orders are today’s only notable indicator but usually the impact on the US Dollar is low, especially if the actual number matches the forecast. The release is scheduled at 3:00 pm GMT and the expected change is 1.1% (previous 1.3%); higher values strengthen the US Dollar and show that manufacturers will increase their activity to fill the orders.

GBP/USD

The pair briefly dipped below 1.2250 Friday but soon climbed back above it; most of the US Dollar weakness was seen during and after Janet Yellen’s speech but the bias is still bearish.


Technical Outlook

Although price climbed Friday, this doesn’t make our bias bullish and in fact, such a retracement higher was already predicted, mostly because the pair travelled a long distance without pullbacks and both oscillators were already oversold. The pair may continue higher but the extent of this correction should be limited and followed by another drop into 1.2250.

Fundamental Outlook

The economic calendar for the Pound is light, without any important releases, thus we may see ranging price action, influenced mainly by the technical aspect.

689

FOREX NEWS: BUYERS RUN OUT OF STEAM AT RESISTANCE. WHAT’S NEXT FOR THE US DOLLAR?

EUR/USD

Forex News: As it was expected, yesterday the pair retraced lower after Friday’s strong climb but resistance was tested before that. The fundamental scene was calm, without important releases.


Technical Outlook

The pair tested the resistance at 1.0630, which proved a strong barrier in front of rising price but today we expect another encounter with the mentioned level and the way price behaves there will determine the next direction. If the barrier cannot be surpassed on the second attempt, it should be considered a sign that the bulls have run out of steam and that we will probably see a move below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. On the other hand, a break of 1.0630 will open the door for a touch of 1.0680.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to yesterday’s trading session, the technical aspect will prevail today because the pair will not be affected by major economic releases for the Euro or US Dollar.


GBP/USD

Yesterday’s trading session was rather slow, without major developments on either side. The bullish retracement seems complete now and we expect the bears to step back in.


Technical Outlook

The pair was in need of a bullish retracement, mostly due to the oversold condition of both oscillators but now that retracement seems complete so we expect a break of 1.2250 support and a touch of 1.2215. If 1.2250 is not broken today, the pair will either enter a ranging period or will continue higher until the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is hit.

Fundamental Outlook

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule any important economic releases for today, so the technical side will be the deciding factor for direction.

690

FOREX NEWS: DOLLAR STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF FIRST U.S. JOBS DATA OF THE MONTH


EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s trading session was mostly controlled by the sellers, who managed to take the pair below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average. It is now clear that 1.0630 is strong resistance and that it will probably reject price in the future.


Technical Outlook

If the pair remains below the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the current move will turn into a reversal of the previous move up and will make 1.0525 the first target. The Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are showing good downside momentum and this increases the chances of a move into the mentioned support. As long as the pair is trading below the 50 EMA our bias is bearish but an important role will be played today by the U.S. jobs data.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:15 pm GMT we take a first look at the U.S. jobs situation with the release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, a report that tracks changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the Government and Farming sectors. The impact is lower than the Government issued Non-Farm Payrolls (which is scheduled Friday) but nonetheless, the US Dollar usually reacts strongly to the data. Higher numbers than the forecast 184K show increased economic activity and signal a future increase in consumer spending.

GBP/USD

The US Dollar continued to strengthen against the Pound yesterday, breaking support and re-establishing a medium term downtrend.


Technical Outlook

The pair is now headed towards the key support zone between 1.2125 and 1.2090 and the overall picture seems bearish but it must be noted that the Relative Strength Index has entered oversold for the second time in a short while. This is a solid indication that the pair is likely to show a deeper retracement to the upside in the near future.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the HM Treasury will release UK’s Annual Budget and this may trigger increased Pound volatility but the exact impact is not known.

691

FOREX NEWS: DRAGHI TAKES CENTRE STAGE AS THE MARKET PREPARES FOR ECB MEETING

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday the ADP Non-Farm Employment report showed a reading of 298K, way above the expected 185K but the Dollar’s reaction was mixed, strengthening at first and then erasing all gains and moving back to where the initial drop started.


Technical Outlook

There is no clear reason for the climb back up but it must be noted that the entire move is just under 30 pips and no major S/R level was broken so we may very well see another drop generated by a delayed effect of yesterday’s U.S. jobs data. The pair is still under the 50 period Exponential Moving Average so the bias is bearish but direction will probably be decided by the ECB meeting today.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the focus is on the Euro as the ECB will announce their interest rate at 12:45 pm GMT, followed at 1:30 pm GMT by a press conference held by ECB President Mario Draghi. The rate is not expected to change from the current 0.00%, so unless anything surprising happens, the event will mostly go unnoticed because usually traders wait for Draghi’s reaction at the press conference. The way he answers journalists’ questions will have a high impact on the Euro, especially if he hints towards a rate hike.

GBP/USD

Price action established 1.2215 as resistance and continued lower as the Pound weakened and the greenback strengthened throughout the day, generating a bearish session overall.


Technical Outlook

The pair is headed towards the support at 1.2125 but the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index are both showing clear oversold condition and also bullish divergence (price is making lower lows while the oscillator is making higher lows). These factors make us anticipate a bounce higher, possibly into the newly established resistance at 1.2215, but may extend into 1.2250.

Fundamental Outlook

It’s another slow day for the Pound as the United Kingdom did not schedule major economic news releases, thus the pair will be mainly affected by the technical side.

692

FOREX NEWS: NFP REPORT – FINISHING THE WEEK WITH A BANG

EUR/USD

Forex News: After reaching the support at 1.0525 the pair immediately jumped higher, boosted by a stronger Euro. The ECB decided to maintain the rate unchanged, as expected but Draghi’s press conference was the main catalyst for the move.


Technical Outlook

It looks like the pair is entering a ranging period, capped by 1.0525 as support and 1.0630 as resistance. Yesterday’s price action clearly showed that 1.0525 is still a strong support and that it may reject falling price in the future but for the time being the Euro is strengthening and the pair seems headed towards 1.0630. Today’s direction will be heavily affected by the U.S. jobs data and the technical aspect will be somewhat secondary.

Fundamental Outlook

The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is released today at 1:30 pm GMT, showing changes in the total number of employed people, excluding the farming sector. This is widely considered the most important jobs data in the U.S. and usually has a very strong impact on the US Dollar, with higher values than the forecast 185K, strengthening it.

GBP/USD

As it was expected, the pair retraced higher yesterday, following an oversold condition of the oscillators. However, movement was rather slow and without conviction from either side.


Technical Outlook

We will probably see an extended period when the pair will remain trapped between 1.2215 resistance and 1.2125 support, unless today’s NFP can trigger strong movement and a clear breakout. Both oscillators are moving upwards, from their respective oversold levels, thus increasing the chances of a move into resistance but the medium-term downtrend is down and this makes another drop probable. Our bias is slightly bearish, expecting the NFP release for further clues.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT the Pound will be affected by the release of the Manufacturing Production, an indicator that tracks changes in the total value of goods produced by manufacturers. The expected change is -0.6% from the previous 2.1% and higher numbers are usually beneficial for the Pound but the pair will probably respond stronger to the NFP report later in the day.

694

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR WEAKNESS – A TEMPORARY AFFAIR?

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar softened Friday against the Euro, despite the Non-Farm Payrolls report posting a number of 235K jobs, higher than the expected 196K. The weakness was mostly generated by a drop in hourly wages.


Technical Outlook

Friday’s strong climb took the pair above 1.0680 resistance and sent the two oscillators in overbought territory. This move is likely to retrace lower and to find support at 1.0630 but if price continues higher, we don’t expect it to pass 1.0710 before a retracement occurs. Keep in mind that the NFP report was better than expected and this may trigger a delayed strengthening effect on the US Dollar, so a drop into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is not out of the question.

Fundamental Outlook

At 1:30 pm GMT, ECB President Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Labs for Innovation Science and Policy Fostering, in Frankfurt. Although the topic is not directly tied to the financial markets, caution is recommended, as always when Draghi speaks. Other than this, no major events will affect the currencies today.

GBP/USD

The pair was mostly unaffected by the Non-Farm Payrolls and remained in a relatively tight range for the entire duration of Friday’s trading session, without threatening support or resistance.


Technical Outlook

Friday’s price action doesn’t give a lot of clues about the next move and our bias is neutral until 1.2215 resistance or 1.2125 support is broken. The pair is in a medium term downtrend but the Relative Strength Index and Stochastic are exiting oversold, moving up and thus increasing the chance of a test of 1.2215. Given the lack of major economic indicator releases, we don’t expect to see a clean break of either support or resistance today.

Fundamental Outlook

United Kingdom’s economic calendar is light and the Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases.

695

[B]FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR STILL FEEBLE, RESISTANCE EXPOSED[/B]

[B]EUR/USD[/B]

Forex News: The pair pushed into 1.0710 resistance but there, an expected retracement took place and now price is moving lower, below 1.0680. Mario Draghi’s speech didn’t have a strong impact and yesterday’s price direction was mostly driven by the technical aspect.

[B]Technical Outlook[/B]

As seen from the chart above, the Stochastic and Relative Strength Index reached overbought almost at the same time and this also coincided with the touch of 1.0710 resistance. These factors generated a bearish move, which is considered a retracement at the moment, not a reversal. We expect 1.0710 to be tested again today and if the bulls fail to take price above it, this will suggest that a reversal is in the making and 1.0630 will become the first target.

[B]Fundamental Outlook[/B]

The first important release of the day is the German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a survey of about 275 German investors and analysts that tries to gauge their opinions regarding a 6-month economic outlook. The survey acts as a leading indicator of optimism, with higher numbers strengthening the Euro. The time of the release is 10:00 am GMT and the expected number is 13.2.

The US Dollar will be affected by the release of the Producer Price Index, which tracks changes in the price charged by producers for their goods. It acts as a leading indicator of inflation because a higher producer price will eventually translate into a higher price paid by the consumer. The release is scheduled at 12:30 pm GMT and the forecast is a change of 0.1% (previous 0.6%).

[B]GBP/USD[/B]

The pair retraced higher, as it was signaled by the long distance traveled to the downside and by the bottoming pattern formed near 1.2125 support. Overall the bias remains bearish after the retracement becomes exhausted.

[B]Technical Outlook[/B]

Yesterday’s climb took the pair into the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and now the candles are showing long wicks, which is a sign of indecision; however, this could be just an accumulation for a push above the 50 EMA and above 1.2250 resistance. If this is the case and the two forms of resistance are broken, the pair is likely to climb back towards 1.2350 but this distance will not be traveled in one day unless surprising events take place.

[B]Fundamental Outlook[/B]

The United Kingdom didn’t schedule important economic releases, thus the deciding factors for direction will be the technical aspect and the U.S. Producer Price Index.

696

FOREX NEWS: FED IN THE SPOTLIGHT, US DOLLAR SET FOR BIG MOVES. RATE HIKE EXPECTED

EUR/USD

Forex News: European data disappointed yesterday, while the U.S. Producer Price Index showed a better than expected change, triggering a drop into support and a trading session mostly controlled by the bears.


Technical Outlook

Price is testing the support at 1.0630 and the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is in close vicinity, creating a confluence zone which will be difficult to break. The current level was touched several times in the recent past and almost every time the pair had a strong reaction to it, so the same may be happening now; a bounce here is very possible but on the other hand, a break followed by a move below the 50 EMA would be a clear sign of strength from the part of the sellers.

Fundamental Outlook

Today is a key day for the US Dollar, because the Fed will meet to announce the interest rate at 6:00 pm GMT and Fed Chair Yellen will hold a press conference half an hour later, discussing the rate decision. A rate hike is expected, from the current <0.75% to <1.00% and if this prediction comes true, the US Dollar will likely strengthen and a lot of volatility will be generated. We recommend caution if trading during the event.

GBP/USD

Price dropped yesterday, partly due to technical reasons and partly due to Brexit fears, so now the pair is in a bearish environment, testing support.


Technical Outlook

After failing to stay above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair is testing 1.2125 and the US Dollar seems to have regained some of its strength. However, a stronger support is located at 1.2090 but it must be noted that the pair is already showing signs of rejection at 1.2125. Today’s price direction will be mainly affected by the fundamental side but the levels to watch remain 1.2090 as support and 1.2250 as resistance.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:30 am GMT we take a look at the UK unemployment situation with the release of the Claimant Count Change, an indicator that shows changes in the number of people who asked for unemployment benefits. The forecast is 3.2K (previous -42.4K) and higher numbers usually weaken the Pound. Of course, later in the day the pair will be directly affected by the Fed rate decision.

697

FOREX NEWS: US DOLLAR BATTERED AS FED HIKES, BUT EXPECTATIONS DISAPPOINT


EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar came under heavy pressure yesterday as the Fed decided to hike from <0.75% to <1.00% but expectations for 2017 remained at only 2 more hikes, which was generally perceived as dovish and was the main reason for greenback weakness.


Technical Outlook

After failing to break the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the pair jumped and moved strongly to touch 1.0710 resistance despite a Fed rate hike. If the current resistance is broken, we expect price to re-test it form above, thus confirming it as support; if the pair can firmly remain above 1.0710, then 1.0800 will become the first bullish target but until 1.0710 is broken, a reversal can take place.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:30 pm GMT the US Dollar will be affected by the release of two medium-impact indicators: the Building Permits (anticipated number 1.26M) and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (anticipated number 30.2). The former shows the annualized number of residential building permits issued during the previous month and the latter is a survey or purchasing managers that acts as a leading indicator of optimism and economic health. Higher numbers for any of these indicators usually generate US Dollar strength.

GBP/USD

US Dollar weakness pushed the pair higher yesterday, taking it into the resistance at 1.2300. It looks like the bearish move is over and the market is turning, with the bulls taking control.


Technical Outlook

The pair moved above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average and the Dollar took a blow from Fed expectations of only 2 more rate hikes this year. This puts control in hands of the bulls and makes us anticipate a break of 1.2300, followed by a move into 1.2350 but the Relative Strength Index is rapidly approaching overbought and usually after a strong move, price retraces to the opposite side. This means that 1.2250 may be touched but as long as the level remains intact, our bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Bank of England will announce today at 12:00 pm GMT the interest rate, accompanied by a Monetary Policy Summary and a breakdown of the MPC members’ rate votes. The rate is not expected to change form the current 0.25% and we don’t expect to get any clear hints towards a near-future hike or cut, so the event will probably create just temporary volatility.

698

FOREX NEWS: WEAKNESS CONTINUES, RETRACEMENTS IN SIGHT AS OSCILLATORS REACH OVERBOUGHT LEVELS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair pushed higher yesterday, above 1.0710 and returned to re-test the level from above, thus establishing it as support. The economic data released yesterday was mixed and didn’t have a substantial impact on the pair.


Technical Outlook

It looks like the bulls are in clear control of the pair and now that 1.0710 is support, we expect price to head towards 1.0800 in the medium term. However, it must be noted that both oscillators are approaching overbought and the Relative Strength Index is also showing bearish divergence (price is making a higher high and the oscillator is making a lower high), which is a signal that a move south may soon follow. If this potential move extends below 1.0710 and 1.0680, the 50 EMA will become the first place where bullish action may resume.

Fundamental Outlook

The University of Michigan will release today at 2:00 pm GMT a Consumer Sentiment survey, which gauges the opinions of about 500 consumers regarding current and future economic conditions. Usually a higher number than the forecast 97.1 shows optimism and strengthens the US Dollar but to a limited extent.

Also today the G20 Meetings start, attended by central bankers and finance ministers from the member states. Volatility may increase, depending on the matters discussed.

GBP/USD

The Bank of England decided to maintain the rate unchanged but one of the 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) saw the need for a rate hike (previously all agreed to hold rates) and this triggered Pound strength that took the pair above another resistance level.


Technical Outlook

Although the Pound is in control and several resistance levels have been broken, we expect a move lower, possibly after 1.2385 is reached. Supporting this view is the fact that both oscillators are approaching overbought and also, price travelled a long distance without a deeper pullback. A good target for this potential move down is 1.2300.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases today but United Kingdom representatives will attend the G20 Meetings and this may be a cause for increased volatility.

699

DAILY ANALYSIS: PULLBACKS IN SIGHT, AS OSCILLATORS REACH OVERBOUGHT LEVELS

EUR/USD

Daily Analysis: The Consumer Sentiment survey released Friday by the University of Michigan didn’t have a strong impact on the US Dollar, mostly because it came very close to analysts’ expectations, but the pair retraced lower due to overbought conditions signalled by both oscillators.


Technical Outlook

The move lower seen Friday should be considered just a simple retracement at the moment, not a reversal but it is very possible to extend into the support at 1.0710. As long as this barrier remains intact, our view is bullish, anticipating a move into 1.0800; however, such a long distance will not be travelled today probably, mostly due to the lack of major economic releases, a fact which may generate ranging price action. Also, the oscillators are just coming out of overbought, favouring a touch of support.

Fundamental Outlook

Today’s direction will be mainly driven by the technical aspect because the United States and Europe have a lacklustre economic calendar, without any major releases.

GBP/USD

Price action was choppy Friday but the buyers managed to remain in control and to keep the pair above 1.2350. Rejection is present and the upside momentum seems to fade away but the medium term bias is still bullish.


Technical Outlook

Long wicks have started to appear on the last few candles and both oscillators have reached overbought, with price at resistance. These factors suggest that a deeper retracement will soon follow, so we don’t expect to see a break of 1.2420 today but if the pair does move above this level, the extent should be limited. After the potential retracement, we expect the pair to move above 1.2420 and into 1.2480 but this will not happen today unless surprising developments take place.

Fundamental Outlook

Similar to the other two currencies, the Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases, so the technical side will be the main market mover.

700

FOREX NEWS: RESISTANCE HOLDS. US DOLLAR STAGES A COMEBACK?

EUR/USD

Forex News: Yesterday’s price action slowed down and the pair retraced after making another attempt to break last week’s high. The fundamental scene was lacklustre, without major announcements.


Technical Outlook

Price printed a lower high, which is a sign that the bullish run may come to an end or at least that we will see a move into 1.0710 support. By the time price reaches support, the 50 period Exponential Moving Average will probably climb and will be in close vicinity of 1.0710, thus creating a confluence zone that will increase the chances of a bounce higher. A move below the moving average and the mentioned level would show that the balance of power is tipping towards the sellers; however, the pair is still in a good uptrend, so a move above the minor resistance around 1.0775-1.0780 will add more strength and would make 1.0800 the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

Today the ECOFIN Meetings start and will be attended by Finance Ministers from the European Union member states. The matters discussed may have an impact on the Euro but the meetings are closed to the press and a formal statement is released at the end of the day.

GBP/USD

Price pierced 1.2420 resistance yesterday but in the afternoon the US Dollar showed signs of recovery and pushed the pair lower. The bearish move is considered a simple retracement, which was overdue, considering the overbought position of the oscillators.


Technical Outlook

The move lower seen yesterday was mostly generated by the fact that price travelled a long distance north without a proper retracement and was signalled earlier by the overbought condition of the oscillators. However, the pair remains in a short-to-medium term uptrend and this means that once the overbought condition is cleared and a notable level is touched, we may see another push higher. The first level of importance is 1.2350 and there we expect to see a resumption of the uptrend.

Fundamental Outlook

The release of the British Consumer Price Index is today’s highlight, scheduled at 9:30 am GMT and expected to show a change of 2.1% from the previous 1.8%. The CPI is the main gauge of inflation and can have a strong impact on the currency, with higher numbers usually strengthening it so be careful if you plan on trading at the time of release.

701

FOREX NEWS: POUND POSTS FRESH HIGHS ON THE BACK OF SOLID INFLATION DATA

EUR/USD

Forex News: After moving very close to 1.0710 support yesterday, the pair jumped higher and briefly took out 1.0800 resistance, in a session that was controlled by the bulls almost entirely.


Technical Outlook

The resistance at 1.0800 was breached yesterday but after moving above it, the pair returned below and is now showing some signs of exhaustion, with the Relative Strength Index continuing to hover near its overbought level. Considering that 1.0800 is both psychological and technical resistance, we expect to see a deeper retracement from here, and a potential touch of 1.0775, which was previously resistance and now may turn into support. Overall the bias is bullish and the uptrend is healthy but in need of a pullback.

Fundamental Outlook

The day ahead lacks major economic releases, with the most notable one being the U.S. Existing Home Sales, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a reading of 5.59M. The indicator shows the annualized number of homes sold, excluding new constructions and usually strengthens the US Dollar if it posts figures above expectations but the impact is not very high.

GBP/USD

The British Consumer Price Index released yesterday exceeded expectations, showing a 2.3% change and this was the main reason why the Pound had another solid day against an already soft Dollar.


Technical Outlook

After bouncing around 1.2350 support, the pair shot up through 1.2420 and reached 1.2480 resistance. In the past the pair spent a lot of time moving above and below this level, so we are likely to see some reaction this time as well; also, the Relative Strength Index is touching its overbought level, signalling that a move south may be next. If the current bullish impulse continues past 1.2480, we expect the extent to be limited and followed by a pullback but overall the bias remains bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected by major economic releases, so the technical aspect will be the main driver behind price action today.

702

FOREX NEWS: BULLISH MOMENTUM WANES, BRITISH RETAIL SALES EYED FOR NEXT MOVE

EUR/USD

Forex News: The pair slowed down yesterday as the upside momentum faded and the bears stepped in, creating a pullback. The U.S. House data was softer than anticipated but the impact was mild and this contributed to the overall slow session.


Technical Outlook

The pair retraced lower but bounced perfectly at 1.0775, which is now support and a place where the pair might show some interesting movement in the future. The bias remains bullish and we expect to see a touch of 1.0830, followed by 1.0850 but a move below 1.0775 would invalidate such a scenario for the time being and would make the 50 period Exponential Moving Average the first target.

Fundamental Outlook

At 12:45 pm GMT, Fed Chair Yellen will speak at the Federal Reserve System Community Development Research Conference. We don’t expect this speech to trigger strong movement but it all depends on the matters she will discuss and her attitude; nonetheless, caution is recommended.

The release of the U.S. New Home Sales is today’s other notable event, scheduled at 2:00 pm GMT and expected to show a number of 566K. The impact is usually medium but a reading above expectations is considered bullish for the US Dollar.

GBP/USD

The pair had trouble breaking the resistance zone around 1.2480 and retraced lower yesterday, for a perfect touch of 1.2420. For now support is holding and the bias remains bullish.


Technical Outlook

The bounce at 1.2420 and the consequent move up show that the US Dollar is still weak and that we will soon see a break of 1.2480, which will open the door for a move into 1.2550. Both oscillators remain very close to overbought and this increases the chances of an extended move lower but even if this happens, as long as the pair is trading above the 50 period Exponential Moving Average, the overall bias is bullish.

Fundamental Outlook

The British Retail Sales come out today at 9:30 am GMT, showing changes in the total value of sales made through retail outlets during the previous month. A higher change than the forecast 0.4% usually brings Pound strength and the opposite is true for a lower reading.

703

FOREX NEWS: BEARISH PRESSURE MOUNTS, AHEAD OF EUROPEAN PMIS, U.S. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS

EUR/USD

Forex News: The US Dollar remained mostly indifferent to Yellen’s speech and to the better than expected figure posted by the U.S. New Home Sales. All this combined with the lack of major news from the Euro side, generated a slow and choppy trading session.


Technical Outlook

It’s becoming clearer that the bullish momentum has faded as the buyers failed to reach 1.0830 and the candles started to show long wicks in their upper side. However, the sellers also lack strength and determination so currently there is no short-term clear bias but as long as the 50 period Exponential Moving Average is below price and angled upwards, the overall trend is up.

Fundamental Outlook

At 9:00 am GMT two medium-impact indicators are released: the European Manufacturing PMI (expected reading 55.3) and Services PMI (expected reading 55.4). These are surveys of purchasing managers that focus on the health of the two sectors and usually strengthen the Euro if they show a better than expected reading but the releases tend to be overlooked if the actual figure matches or comes very close to analysts’ expectations.

On the US Dollar side we have the Durable Goods Orders, released at 12:30 pm GMT and expected to show a change of 1.1%. The impact is medium to high, with numbers above forecast strengthening the greenback.

GBP/USD

The Pound continued its climb yesterday, fuelled by better than expected British Retail Sales (actual 1.4%; forecast 0.4%). Resistance is clearly broken but the oscillators are still overbought.


Technical Outlook

The pair is trading above the resistance at 1.2480 but most of yesterday’s move was generated by the solid British Retail Sales reading and from a strictly technical point of view, the need for a retracement lower has increased. Both oscillators are overbought and price has travelled a long distance without a proper pullback so today we expect a move south. The levels of interest are 1.2550 as resistance and 1.2480 as support.

Fundamental Outlook

The Pound will not be affected today by major economic releases, so the technical aspect and the U.S. Durable Goods Orders will be the main factors that will affect the pair’s direction.

We hope you had a profitable trading week and we wish you a relaxing weekend.