LOL ----
WHO said news isnt as important or impressive any longer ???
wheeeeeeeee
mp
I know I know… who’d have thought the shabbiness of ADP could kick around any currency like that? Still, we’re nearly back to exactly where we started - the bankers still haven’t forgotten how to screw over their customers. I was worried they might have turned over a new leaf for a minute.
notice that gu was taken UP to the H1 RESISTANCE and now is DROPPING – which is what is expected ?
with two days, they could easily continue dropping and then run it up on thurs nite for fridays real figures.
and then, whats in between for the pound also ?
fortunately, most of this movement happens on the USD, so its not totally a strange game !
mp
I would really like to know exactly the same thing, I know learning fundamental analysis is pretty important but no idea how to do it. I thing the technical give just the confidence because is more mathematical than any other think, but should be great to learn how to predict and trade with the news.
I BELIEVE i have described how to trade the news about 37 times in the past week, so really dont want to go thru the whole thing again.
while technical certainly helps during normal trading (in fact, HOW could you trade without it – use chicken bones and ritualistic dancing ?) it will tell you the future !
Hehehehe You are extremely kind with members in here right?.. Thank you very much for your reply, there is something that says if don�t give solutions don�t give problems. So If you have the 37 Links with the sites where you went through the whole thing please let me know them, Ill be really thankful.
haha ADP was obvious because it was such an unexpected number. profited from that 50 pips (because I wanted to play it safe)
but I dont understand why the GBP went gained when the rates was as predicted. I actually thought it would go down because the rates were as expected, but then the trade went against me and I couldn’t get out of my trade because of slippage 
lost alot on that one [and i also went against one of my trading rules, which made my losses double :(]
but on the other hand i recovered half of my losses at the next bunch of USD releases on unemployment rates, etc. my theory is that since most of the signs were conflicting and didnt make much difference, yet everybody was waiting to jump in to a trade, the direction after 15 mins will be the direction for the next hour. which it was
i wonder whether its true for all high-importance news
ahhhhhh grasshopper — you are beginning to use your eyes for more than hanging piercings from !
while compound news releases tend to create some foolishness, you should note that (if you live in the USA) ALL the night before, the markets are either RAISING or LOWERING the price to prepare for the DIRECTION they will MOVE IT when the news is released.
if the news is thought to be bad (and remember the banks have enormous RESEARCH facilities (and perhaps spies working at the fed also) and they KNOW what the results will be so they can easily anticipate where to move the market in preparationl.
when the news is released, the market continues in the direction of the overnite and the most recent trading until it reaches resistance on what is USUALLY the H1 and then REVERSES to go in the direction ORIGINALLY intended by the banks.
if BAD news, the banks RAISE the price to resistance to get the price as HIGH as possible so the SHORT SIDE TRADES that are coming will start at the highest point they can get the price !
THAT is essentially the whole enchilada with trading the news — go with the FIRST reaction, which usually lasts 30 - 45 mins, and get out at resistance and then REVERSE your trade and go with that for the REST of the day !
just OPEN them ORBS and take a good look and bank your profit well !
mp
[B][I]Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !
As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence – BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY ![/I][/B]
which specific bank desks are you referring to mp (who get the nod on data releases?)
I sure wish we�d had access to these spies whispering snippets when I was diligently beavering away. In fact, I might just begin “leaning” a little heavier on one or two of my ex-colleagues to slip us a bone or two at opportune times in future
Central Banks will occasionally telegraph their intent or proposed visibility (at certain levels) to their supply desks when they want to let their presence be known, but that tactic is usually adopted to calm or quell the momentum on certain pairs at particular price levels. It also allows them to support or inflate a price for a specific purpose.
but I�m certainly not aware of them actively hiding or ghosting data/information streams on the sly. Neither was I/am I aware of certain Banks receiving a head start on key Data prints from the corresponding department source(s).
there are strict rules in place to govern that type of activity.
HEY jimmymac ----
enjoy and trade well
mp
so basically you�re just surmising.
as much as the notions of high powered clandestine exchanges conjures up a dashing image of intrigue & dirty dealing, I think you�ll find the reality is far more mundane & straightforward.
if you know anything about institutional order flow, then you�ll know that the primary function, especially on & around key economic releases, is to protect & manage risk exposure.
they�re far more concerned with ensuring their positions are continuing to offer them value in relation to risk (cost) than they are busily attempting to front run the numbers.
if folks new to this environment spent more time studying, evaluating & appreciating risk & sensible position structuring, they�d be fewer holy grail chasers, burnt accounts & cries for help on internet trading forums.
anyhow, enjoy the remainder of your weekend
NO jimmymac, not even vaguely —
Im a NYC boy and many a wall streeter phone number still lives in my palm pilot even though im retired at this point (yeah, retired and now run a financial holding company – SOME retirement !)
we may be discussing situations here that were enough above your pay grade that they were never obvious to you BUT many a night spent over fingers of “old overholt” as war stories were presented is behind what i post, and can be observed by a simple “paper trail” following of what and when price does what ! Others have questioned my observations, only to find them repeated and true, so i make no apologies for what i DO know !
we DO NOT SPEAK of intrique but SIMPLE CAPITALISM — its is in ONLY the banks best interests to know what is happening, and large sums are spent on research departments OR WILL YOU DENY THAT ALSO ?
these research departments are not really interested in the price of socks at walmarts, although one can bet there is “someone” who has that information — they want to maximize their holdings and spend large chunks of money to enable that information.
once one has the information, do you believe they simply file it away and give the research dept a bonus ? [B]THEY USE THE INFORMATION !!![/B]
CLANDESTINE — not a bit, just standard business practices, but one will not and cannot imagine that a desk trader is brought into the CEO’s office in the morning and told all of this, rather the trading dept depends on its traders to know, see and follow (or lead) what is happening for ONLY one purpose — to make MORE money !
RISK is not part of what i was posting, albeit certainly a part of trading — traders have 2 jobs — DONT LOSE AND DO WIN ! THAT is risk management in its smallest nutshell !
btw, FRONT RUNNING. looked at in its basic parts, is exactly what happens, although when trading, because of tradings “unique” language, the banks are simply responding to supply and demand — (in a pigs nether regions !)
I cannot agree more with your thoughts on having people learn to trade — I spent 20 years to get to this point, and MANY bottles of “old overholt” with the young and not so young lions of wall street !
What you say is pretty danged correct FROM THE POSITION YOU OCCUPIED, but has really NO bearing on what I am saying — its sort of MACRO vs MICRO pictures of a situation — BOTH are right, but only one sees the WHOLE picture !
enjoy and trade well
mp
well, if nothing else you’ve succeeded in raising more than a few belly laughs in the office this evening
we’re not sure what kind of characters you�ve been hanging out with but they weren’t by any chance running round a circus ring wearing oversize curly wigs, big red, round noses & bright yellow size 22 shoes were they?
LOL
I also know what I know, & I�m very familiar with the workings, aims & function of a research-analytical dept thank you!
quite what the status/grade at my previous firm(s) has to do with the price of fish god only knows, yet another strange but amusing comment in a quite bizarre catalogue of prose.
I�ll leave you to your audience mp, I�m sure they�re waiting patiently for a few more inside secrets to better explain the inner workings of the (manipulated) currency markets :rolleyes:
be sure & mind the gap & don�t believe (all) the hype! 
live in your world jimmy and ill live in mine but can you explain to me ONE thing ?
why when a currency goes UP does it STOP and reverse ?
WHY does it stop at a predetermined resistance (assuming long) point, and WHY can i set that point on an H1 trade, go to sleep and awake in full profit as the currency hits and then reverses at that point and then take profit and set up for the H4 trade, all the while playing the 30 second and one minute charts for short term gains !
am i some kind of forex god with powers far beyond mortal men and mortal traders ?
I dont believe so — but i can see where the price is going, and strangely enough, it goes there !
living in my unusual world, i once demoed 100 trades to a group of newbs and each and every trade took profit AT THE EXACT REVERSAL POINT FOR THE TRADE, and they were on every timeframe that is usable !
Im sure you guys must be able to do the same thing because - - - - well - - - - - isnt that what they pay you for ?
If I know where the price is going, then you can be darn sure the powers that be know where the price is going also, because im not aware of any superpowers coursing thru my body !
You will not be the first “pro” ive met who knows their own job, but hasnt a clue about the larger picture — if you were, youd be middle to upper management and not a trader !
enjoy and trade well
mp
[B][I]Within the great hall at Elfinore stands a wondrous coffer, precisely four cubits square and securely latched against the outside world. Inside that repository, shut away from impertinent eyes, abides many an intriquing trading secret garnered from around the world and over the ages !
As a child, i used to watch from the darkness as the secrets were debated and annotated by the elders. No one there held a single thought of my presence – BUT I KNOW WHERE THEY HID THE KEY !![/I][/B]
you appear to be veering wildly off track mp. Not surprising really with folks who have a tendency to rant & postulate.
I�m not questioning your technical observations or trade planning nous at all.
you alluded to the fact the price structure on & around key economic data was being manipulated by some ‘secret group of Bank hotshots’ & I responded to that.
anyone with a modicum of common sense and/or a reasonable level of experience, possesses the ability to manage their positions & control risk at all steps of the price ladder.
there is absolutely no need whatsoever to be in cahoots with, or attempt to anticipate the actions of these fantasy figures of yours at top tier Banks, or dream up ridiculous stories about clandestine arrangements being plotted to consistently throttle & blanket price action at a given juncture.
you�re making yourself look a complete idiot sir, especially to those who have actually worked this business from an institutional angle.
hopefully, even those rookies who patiently plough thru your work will have the sense to separate the fact from the fiction.
ok, enough valuable energy has been wasted on this nonsense already, time to get down to some real work.
however you arrive at your individual trade decisions, stay safe & have yourselves a profitable week!
over & out
enjoy and trade well
mp
Edited for brevity. JimmyMac, I respect anyone’s opinion who trades full time, so I’m not taking sides.
Call it what you will, but manipulation exists in every market to some degree. Why would the world’s biggest market (and incidentally one of the most opaque) be any different?
still wanting to avoid arguement, perhaps a better word than “manipulation” is “directed”.
otherwise the currency would NEVER bounce off support and make its way to resistance and then back again, ad naueseum — otherwise a currency would NEVER stop moving in one direction, once it had started. It would NEVER reverse at EXACTLY 12noon, est and on and on and on !
It would NEVER REVERSE, NEVER BOTTOM, NEVER TOP —
WHAT happens is not set by traders (which is a REALLY REALLY boring job) but by the BOSSES of the traders, and their bosses and the research dept !
otherwise it would be sheer pandemonium without any leadership actually making the decisions
REMEMBER WELL, the soldier in the foxhole hasnt got a clue what the GENERAL is thinking or planning, nor does the trader KNOW what his/her superiors have decided !
mp
Hello triphop,
without getting too complicated, the very structural nature & mechanics (liquidity biased) of the spot market makes it impossible to orchestrate from a potential manipulative angle.
the sheer weight/depth of order flow running thru some of these “active” levels day in, day out from the various (sized) participants render it unplayable from a cost/value angle.
the only times that prices get flipped out of whack is around holiday periods, such as Xmas/New Year etc. But the large institutions/wholesale operators aren�t active then anyhow, therefore the only players on the prowl are retail brokers playing games with their customer base & lower tier CTA�s/aggressive speculative firms chasing price back & forth to fair value.
it�s often difficult enough for commercials & bulky wholesale participants to influence the flows during normal business periods, especially around the fixing, let alone a Bank or two intent on running a level for a quick buck.
I do agree with mp�s support-resistance stance & the advantages of retail participants being able to structure their positional orders thru the supply-demand imbalances etc, but to suggest that it�s being driven/influenced solely by “Banks” is a little wide of the mark I�m afraid.
there are far more varied influences playing out across the pairs (mainly during London business traffic) to simply hold “the Banks” responsible for leading the price wagon to & fro on a daily basis.
that’s not to say folks can’t avail themselves of the action if they got a decent handle on market structure, but there is no one set of participants who run the show on the FX field.
ok, it�s been an awful long day & I�m in need of a nightcap!!
Thanks Jimmy always appreciated, MP, and Joceyln (I feared you vanished into the ether, but good to see you’re back and still as diplomatic as ever ;))
Jimmy, one thing though, it’s easier to push price around when liquidity is thin, so that’d make news releases - or rather the 30 minutes or so prior to news releases - prime candidates wouldn’t it? Given the enormity of the market, the number of players that can do this would be small, but surely they do?
And as for other manipulations (maybe pushes is a better word), wouldn’t you agree there are MMs running clusters of their client stops? Although noone’s got a perfect view of the market, the MM can see their own clients orders and would have a rough idea of open interest at any given level, and if they estimated it’d take $100m to wipe out $500m of client’s positions, they would wouldn’t they? (Note to anyone else reading, I’m not talking about your retail brokers!).