The £10K Gamble - [The Journey]

This will do the job.

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Thanks for the honour sir!

I hope I could learn more from you and be your permanent disciple.

:heart:

Hi @The_Ballerbeen stumbled upon your journal last week and have been following it keenly since. I must say I like your strategy as I aspire to become a naked trader eventually, however I’m still or very confident drawing S&R and trend lines accurately.

Can I please ask you to explain how you’d play this particular AUDJPY setup? Per your strategy I’m thinking you’d wait for the November monthly candle to close before pulling the trigger in your preferred direction. What confirmations would you be potentially looking for? I’m interested in following this trade so I can see if I fully understand your trading strategy and can replicate it myself.

Thanks as I await your reply

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Hey Dev,

Exact same position here! Although things seem to be slowly turning towards my favour. In a fair bit of DD currently (mainly due to JPY trades).

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Yeah, waiting for people to want the old “safe haven” again. I read a piece by Goldmans that said they were heavily betting on JPY strengthening a lot by NY. I’ve been in some AJ trades since late August!

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“ Trump says US has not agreed to roll back tariffs on China”

This should help.

Yes. I’m not too panicked. Just be nice to close those trades sometime!

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I’m in the same boat, but It’s starting to look better. I scaled in 2 short positions on AUD/JPY this morning and they’re both up 26 and 35 pips.

Same here. Been pretty quiet recently, but am somehow 7% ROI two weeks in a row, so can’t complain.

In a nutshell, go down to a lower time frame and see how prices reacts to the key levels.

It could break resistance, look like it will go higher, then it could end up being a fake break.

Personally I’ll be sticking with what I got and waiting for the right opportunity.

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Same here and baller as well…no trades for multiple weeks…nzd cad and eur are about to do something

With a bit of luck JPY will strengthen hard next week. I can feel something about to break somewhere. Before NY at any rate would be good

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-112741
**FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 11/05/19
--------------------------------------------------------------|
** NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS

--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
** LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT |
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF NZD 100,000) OPEN INTEREST: 75,326
COMMITMENTS
14,376 53,341 725

Copied from CFTC Commitments of Traders Report - CME (Futures Only)
If I understand this correctly, the big (Non-Commercial) players are mainly short on NZD futures (53,341), as at Nov 5th, therefore some NZDXXX pairs should theoretically be ripe for shorting.

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Sorry, but this statement looks very intimidating for me, please let me add for the sake of future traders out there.

Its about the common misconception of traders about the term “NAKED TRADER”.

To break it down, I would divide this so called naked traders in the world into 2 different types;
1)Real Naked Traders
2)Bare Naked Traders (Dumb,Wannabe Naked Traders or any silly names you could imagine)

Referring to the 2nd statement about Bare Naked Traders is that, they may not know wth they are doing and they might just be straight forward gambling.

They are GAMBLERS pretending to be traders. Period.

I have a friend that has been trading for about 5 years or maybe more. He even traded forex longer than me and have more experience on the market for sure.

Everytime we met and have a discussion about the market.
He would open up a chart and brag about him being a NAKED TRADER instead of a person like me who always has a reason for everything and using most of the tools all the time where it is possible.

Everytime I question him for any of his actions, why sell here? why buy here? exit? why close? Do u use fibs? where is your level? kinko hyo? Dragonball? Donald Trump?

He cant even answer me properly and instead, he claims he is a Naked Trader and does not need to use any of those silly tools (fibs,snrs,pivot,bb and etc)

So, in the end, I felt being more stupid everytime I met him because I was still drawing stupid snr’s, trendlines, channels and so on.

I became stupid because I believe I found a Real Naked Trader.

But a few months back, I heard in one of Akil Stokes podcast about a guy who is doing so well in trading commodities in the US.

The guy then was asked to make a presentation in a Forex International summit in US a few years back.

On his presentation, he was displaying a fully NAKED CHART of the Oil market and explaining how he made a ton of money by trading that market. Everybody knows he is color blind. So his charts look nothing but just black and white candles.

What was confusing was, the guy was giving his presentation and answering questions of the participants with all the technical levels, 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, 78.6% fibs, pivs, snrs, when questioned. Even when his charts were empty and doesnt have any tools drawn.

All precise.

Akil himself was very surprised and went to meet this guy in person on the break session to ask him all the same question again and get all the same answers again.

So, as you can see here.

There is no shame in drawing S&R and trend lines.

There is no shame in sharing any basic opinion or sentiment.

A person may not be drawing nor using all those silly tools on their chart to interpret the market all the time.

But, that doesnt mean they are not using any of those tools at all.

Naked Trading is a skill.

Its not a method nor a trading system.

Its not a proper way of trading especially for newbies.

And it requires years and years of diligent practice to develop that skill.

Akil Stokes himself required a minimum of 5 years real trading before he could really develope the skills to read a Naked Chart. He was in the front page of Forbes.
So ask yourself.

Who am I?

Who am I to read a Naked Chart?

I developed my method to be a profitable trader just in time before I found this thread and knew @The_Baller only to find out that my method was the same as his.

I knew I was on the right path.

I’m so grateful and glad to be in this community.

What happen to my Naked friend?

He is still trading naked.

And he is still NOT PROFITABLE with thousands and thousands of dollars lossed.

Plus, I am still meeting him regularly to learn

HOW NOT TO BE A NAKED TRADER.

Just my 2 cent. :heart:

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Hey @The_Baller, just wondered if you finished that book and if so what you thought about it? Dev

Yes, they are roughly 80% short. It shows that big and smart money is looking to short it. However take this is context to other indicators. Also the COT positioning is a very long term view, each snapshot is a week. Looking at past COT data shows price peaks at similar % levels.


Also note resistance levels (orange line)
MA’s also indicate down trend. Odds are good for shortening I think also.

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This is the NZD futures only legacy COT report data compared with the currency price. The candles are days 21st Aug-11th November.

The non-commercial Large Specs (smart money) are clearly short. @Quadricolor is right, this implies that speculative trading long-term is short.

An important thing to notice is that there’s been no real increase in shorts by smart money recently and their orders near perfectly balance the long commercial traders’ hedging orders.

My process at the moment for qualifying a short trade is:

  1. Are the large specs more than 60% short?
  2. Has there been an increase in their orders recently?
  3. Is there any mismatch between the commercial and non-commercial orders? Normally we would expect them to balance each other but sometimes the commercials will act unexpectedly which can cause a market reversal.

Take all of this with a pinch of salt and do your own testing and research. I’m still just exploring.

The charts I posted are from cotbase.com by the way. You just make a free account and they let you see the futures only data.

@PeteLikesIt Thanks for your post that led me to the COT data.

@The_Baller Thank you for inspiring me with the belief that I can actually do this for a living.

Thank you to everyone who has contributed. It’s been an educational read for me.

@FarhanFadzli Thanks for that answer, it’s great!! what would you say to someone who just now starts with this method?
As you say Its not a proper way of trading especially for newbies. Personally I follow everything that has taught me @the_baller S/R, the big picture, position size etc…
Is there anything else can help me with, for example, control of psychology or learn about smart money strategy?
Since I found this thread I find it hard to trust outside information.

Thanks in advance and I sorry for my English, I’m also studying the language

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Just to clarify a thing, Naked Trading is mostly misunderstood and often thought to be what you’ve just described. It is not. There are clear rules as to what you have to do and those are the essential foundations of the strategy itself. Your friend does not come across as a Naked Trader but a betting man. Clear differences there but good for him if that’s his choice. There are tons of ways to skin a cat and when the job is done properly, they are all profitable. I can naked trade, trade with gazillions of modified indicators, aka NNFX way, trade with Harmonic Patterns or trade with just simple Price Action and still can deliver the goods. None of them is better than the other one, long as done properly. (Btw. it takes as long as it takes for one to read a naked chart, I wouldn’t draw references with other chaps and feel intimidated. But still think 5 years is exaggerated beyond belief, nonetheless.)
This is a good book to read if you wish to understand what Naked Trading is all about, then you can go up to your friend and brag about him not being a Naked Trader :slight_smile:

Cheers.

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