HI @The_Baller, if ever you have time, would you mind please talking a little bit about the current market? I know that is not really the purpose of this thread, but the market just seems to have gone so wild I was wondering what you make of it. I have been following along quietly with your method for some months now.
In particular about trends which were already in a down trend like most of the Aussie dollar pairs, which now seem almost hyper extended and ready for a big retracement. It seems like I can’t touch these pairs and so many others because the TA looks like a trap almost, and I don’t trade reversals or retracements. How do you navigate this?
I actually went through this with GBP/AUD recently. The pair has accelerated away, but I bought in long maybe a day before the big retracement and had to sit there green around the gills till the draw down was over. It worked thanks to your wide stop loss trading style. But it was stressful, and looking at the weeklies for so many pairs it makes me wonder if we are about to have a big 4-5 week risk on move.
@SunaruTrader, what do you do on the 4HR you look for obvious supply and demand? More like support resistant and dive in right?? Sorry for the dumb question bro… is there any further confirmations??
I don’t look at S&R nor supply and demand. The Baller laid it out in this thread (post 63 I think) if you are a beginner. Use the 4hr chart and the chikou span cross of the cloud That’s it. Some things I do are because I have 10 years experience in trading, so I can’t show anyone those things since they are what I see from experience. But even those things are minor. Set up the chart as he says and make money. That’s it. I know that you want me to impart upon you some secret, but I can’t. You just need to practice trading.
Right now the market is what it is. It’s gone tits up.
Things that were plodding along in a nice trend flipped upside down and started going the other way.
Right now TA is risky.
Personally the trades I’m still in, I’m still in. It’s not for everyone, you can expect DD to increase as some trades go against you harder than normal.
Some trades I have hedged and gone the other way and made some nice cash.
The wide SL style might not even work in some of these situations, because of what’s going on, nothing is going to respect TA.
You have to either sit back and not be a part of this, or adapt and take the risks.
There are some people that feel they must trade, they might not have a job, this might be their only source of income.
If this is not you, there is no pressure to trade at this point in time, unless you have a strategy that can navigate times like this.
I’m living in the present, taking each day as it comes and learning as I go along.
I’m willing to take risks, try new things and see what happens.
I trade the H4 chart too and I’d love to know what your secret is. Got hit by 286.5 pips last week on the USD/CHF where I went into a trade just above 95.00 expecting price to drop as it was on a downward trend. As it turned out 95.00 became a support point, by the end of the week price was around six pips shy of 98.00. Would be interested to know what you would have done. Below is a screen shot of the chart, pointing at where my entry was:
At the point that you indicate that you entered the trade the lagging indicator (26 periods prior) was rising and the sep A at the top of the cloud was also rising so I would have been cautious.
@aalim79 in my own opinion, I would have suggested you held the trade and get out at breakeven atleast if your stop loss was 500-1000 pips… and if you had considered the bigger picture of the market you would have known if it’s a safe trade or not, @The_Baller, hope I’m making any sense… I’m still a newbie learning everyday though I have a small live account
On the same principle as the Baller’s trading technique there is some good money to be made on shares, Indices and commodities.
I made some good profits looking at stocks that were solid and doing well before Covid and entered last week. They might be long term holds but with a good diserfication when this is all behind us I should make a good profit.
Your trader might not let you bet on shares, I’m with IG and I can.
For commodities I made profit on Crude oil and Oranje Juice. Exited Oranje Juice in time but I believe there is an other buy opportunity in the next few days.
If you take that route I would advise on paying a premium for Guaranteed Stops on some of them.
With Oanda I can’t afford to trade indices- the minimum contract size is too big for my size account. Are you trading bigger, or do you have a broker that allows fractional trading of indexes?
To be fair I have not been using indices that much. A friend of mine is doing really well on them, but for the moment I’m focused on shares and commodities. Still a bit of forex. Nice to learn to trade new sectors.
@The_Baller Thanks for the info, as a newbie I’m going to give your methodology a whirl.
My head’s been hurting with learning technical analysis and I’ve managed to break-even over the last 3 weeks on a demo account by trading the trend and looking for bounces.
Time to try something simpler I think.
For newbies, its always been the markets fault when they acquired a loss.
Its always somebody’s fault and there is always something (other than themselves) to be blamed for their ignorant trading results.
For me, whenever I see reds, I will look at the chart. I give it a smile and I do a slow clap while telling to the screen “you got me!”
Can the market still get me tomorrow? Or the next day? Or the next? And so on?
This is the reality of trading, and a consistently profitable trader must face it everyday over and over and over again.
You only do what the market tells you to do.
The market will never give a damn about what you want.
If you’re telling to the market what it should do and expect the market to do so, then you are totally wrong.
In fact, mother market will reach deep down into these kind of peoples pockets and take whatever they could afford without giving a s*** and not returning a single penny of it.
