You can look at it like price swings and you should be alright. I furthered explained it by saying a swing on one time frame is a bar closed mid way down on another is all.
Let me know if that answers it.
Thanks!
Sure I just like more testable definitions.
Axiom 8
[I][B]There are certain movements the market can not make.[/B][/I]
Here is your watershed moment.
What is the market going to do next? That is a question I am sure you have asked yourself 100s of times. You sit and you ponder and you analyze and measure and re-analyze. Even then you can still come up wrong.
Here is something to think about. What will the market not do? How overlooked is that? Have you ever even considered it?
Through these axioms I have found formations the market can not make, they literally just can’t. This will of course be a little different for each method, but it should always be looked into.
I has saved me on so many occasions. It will do the same for you.
All the best!
[B]P.S.[/B] I have had a few people email me about putting together all these Axioms and expand on them with extremely in-depth examples of each plus include all my logics I have derived from them. At this point I do not really want to do it as it will cut into my other commitments but at some point it could happen.
The question of what will the market NOT do has never occurred to me and, honestly, I believed that the market was capable of ANY move. The only thing I could think that the market would not do, is stay the same. Other than that, anything is possible. Maybe not? Would love to hear more on this one.
Axiom 9
[I][B]Price is either following natural market progression or it is trying to reach the place it wants to be before it begins Natural market Progression.[/B][/I]
This one is not terribly helpful unless you know what Natural market progression is so I would not put much significance on this one. I did promise all the axioms so I had to server them all up.
That being said, I did arrive at this conclusion and realization of Natural market progression through these axioms provided.
Axiom 10
[I][B]Price resistance never becomes support and vice versa.
[/B][/I]
[B]Challenge yourself[/B]
This I have found to be true over and over and over again, support is support until it is not and resistance is resistance until it is not. They do not not ever become on another.
This is one of those things that you can easily fool yourself into seeing. To test this put a line anywhere on a chart and just follow it back. You will always find it acting as something. What good is a random line? All lines like this are random and should not be relied upon heavily.
Always define your support and resistance by what is reliable and current.
Axiom 11
[I][B]What works on one time frame should work on all time frames if the datum is correct.[/B][/I]
Here is a life Lesson for you
If something works it should work, and it should work on all timeframes.The reason for this is you are looking at a macro and micro environment of the same exact thing. People are just reacting at different times( see past axioms)
So if your system does not work on all time frames to some greater or lesser degree it does not work.
I will be checking this from time to time but if you have any urgent questions you can send me an email at [email protected]
[I][B]Thats all.[/B][/I]
Thanks!
By this logic, every trader should trade shorter tf , as short as possible, if their system “works”, because this can maximise profit, more signal generated= more profit, assume that the system still works
This is true but unworkable for two reasons.
One, on shorter time-frames you can of course have more signals but the amount of movement is normally much less and will not always overcome spreads. So there is a point of diminishing returns.
Two, it is kind of like saying if I do a thousand sit-ups a day I will get a 6-pack. It is technically true but no one wants to actually do it.
This is true. AT a a certain point of position, the market cannot go further up or down, irrespective of the
relevant trend.
This is true for all time frames.
While I agree with some of these axioms, I’m a bit sad that the thread is wrapped up so quickly without any proof of concept. It seems to be more like “here’s what I know to be true, just trust me”. Most of them are too vague for me to even come up with an idea on how to test that the axiom is indeed true, but perhaps that’s due to my own shortcomings.
This one however I can speak on at least a little bit. There is actually an entire “class” of traders if you will that create all their edges surrounding this theory. Of course, finding these criteria in a manner that’s easily trader is very difficult. It’s kind of the end goal to find things that are IMPOSSIBLE, and in the mean time we aim to trade things that are very unlikely, or at least less likely than likely.
As an example I’ll take the “market cannot stay the same” idea as a start. When I say that the market cannot stay the same, I mean that it cannot stay in a consolidation or shrinking range. I call these flats, and they are what most people consider box consolidations and ascending/descending triangle patterns. An empirical study on how long these ranges can last for will yield a time maximum, in which price must break out of the range (of course, the direction is unknown, so it is difficult to trade this in isolation). The opposite is also true though. The market cannot continue in a singular direction (pump or heavily trending state) without completing a reversal of x% *. This can be a bit tricky, so I’ll present something that everyone has the capability of discovering on their down. Look at D1 moves within the context of the W1 (24x5). If you measure the first day beginning on Asian open after the weekend, and look at directional movement throughout the week, you’ll see something. It is uncommon occurrence for all 5 days in a week to move in a single direction, up or down. If it’s Friday open and all 4 previous days have been up, you have good odds to short. In a direction ratio, the market likes these numbers in order:
3:2 (47%)
4:1 (30%)
2:3 (15%)
5:0 (5%)
1:4 (3%)
That is, if the market net for the week is UP, you’re most likely to see 3 up days and 2 down days, followed by seeing 4 up days and 1 down day, and so on. This doesn’t give you a scenario of something that the market CANNOT do, but it does give you the probability of certain things being very unlikely to occur.
*I should note that I also heavily agree that the market should be measured in ratios of swings and not pips. This one is more argued on a theoretical basis. A dollar today is not the same as a dollar 10 years ago (in terms of buying power and such), so why should it stay the same when buying/selling currency? Volatility changes by month to month and year to year, so while you can stick to certain numbers for tp/sl for a while, they do occasionally need to be adjusted.
I totally understand. They are sort of vague and they really only stand up when you start testing them. They all have stood up for me for a long time now and they make me money on a very consistent basis.
That being said I was really hoping the information I put forth would help. I may need to make an expanded version at some point soon to make the axioms more understandable. I might also be able to include some of the logics I have come up with as well.
Anyway, you can always email me if you have any other question.
I don’t understand why this would ever be the case. How is that point defined? Identified? Why can’t a certain trend just keep going? What would stop it from going one pip further? Help is appreciated.
Thx!
How did you come to this conclusion?
Can you explain why and give an example?
Oh people lets call this for what it is but then I would get edited.
Interesting thread. Not much else. Certainly didn’t learn anything new.
[QUOTE=“Coffeeshop;676518”]Last 3 month statement. <img src=“301 Moved Permanently”/> Full Statement with dates removed. https://www.uploady.com/#!/download/zNAozlxCiaS/Cg8Mpku74qaR92Vv[/QUOTE]
Is this MT4?
Did more than 200 trades in 3 months?