The 3 Duck's Trading System

Greetings Duck Hunters,

This 4 hour chart (our first Duck) posted below looks interesting to me … any thoughts?

The 4 hour chart is a little gem, a great guide to see who has an appetite; Bulls or Bears.

Andy
Captain Currency

Trade on bearisch brake out of the 5 min chart at 111,4 (if all ducks line up)

Its not Ducking up on the 5m chart. Am I right?

Thanks

Howdy guys, a quick follow-up to the 4 hour “study chart” (1st Duck) post. Below is the 4 hour chart again that I said looked interesting.

Why was it looking “interesting”, after all It was a given that price was currently trading below the sma and our 1st Duck would only have favoured shorts, well here’s my thoughts …

1 I wasn’t interested in taking a short trade in the green zone highlighted in the chart below, for me I just reckoned any trade in this zone might be a bit 50/50 or “chancy”. Support could have held price in and we might have seen price head back up to the sma (and back down again) a typical case of where Bulls and Bears have little appetite.

2 For me to be a more confident in the Bears hunger (and short trades) I reckoned Bears really needed to close a 4hr candle below support, below the 111.45 area. A 4 hour candle that pierced this area and pulled back up wasn’t going to be good enough, I was looking for a close below, a “Bearish Bite”.

3 My plan wasn’t to take any trades until Bears proved themselves. Now that they have closed below 111.45 I’d reckon short trade set-ups in the coming sessions (where your 3 Ducks line-up) are well worth taking.

4 The Bears next meal (or target) could easily be in the 109.50 area, +160 pips from where we are currently trading at.

5 On the flip side, a 4 hour close above the 112.40 resistance area (highlighted below) makes me think that Bears have lost their appetite. If this does happen I’d reckon it was a fundamental announcement (or two) that pushed price higher and not the technicals.

Side note: Of course the 3 Ducks is a discretionary approach and your thoughts may differ to mine, but if I had only one bit of advice for newcomers it would be to study the hell outta the 4 hour chart, your First Duck. Become good at having a solid logical grasp of this time-frame, spend years studying it! #Study4HrChart


Sure, would have made you about +40 pips, for me I wasn’t pulling the trigger until we got that “Bearish bite”. Thanks for the comment!

I’d reckon it did at some stage but you’re jumping 2 steps ahead of me :slight_smile: Cheers for the comment.


Take care,

Andy
Captain Currency

5 Likes

Andy thank you explaining the strategy with a clear example.

1 Like

Pure golden example. Thanks Captain.

1 Like

Very interesting, I’m beginner with currency

Kind of a newer user here, but if any of you folks use TradingView as your charting software, I did create a strategy of this system and put it into the public indicator section.
I also added the ability for you to input your own profit targets, stops, trailing stops and specific times of the day to trade for back testing.

Here is the link for the 3 Duck’s System on TradingView

i’m not sure if this kind of system is for me. i did a test on fx tester and although i had a ‘season’ of profits, as i did more tests (about 60 from memory) i lost a lot of it. to me, it just feels that it’s not enough to line up directions/moving averages and go in. that making money short term trading forex is hard . i’m thinking of trying higher tf (h4/D1+)…

making money in forex is difficult…

2 Likes

Hi Harpoon, this ‘system’ is likely not for everyone. It does need your own view of what the market is doing. It attempts to get you engaged in a trending market. Many trends ‘look’ unique, they don’t all have a nice stair stepper look to them. But some do. I believe it is very important to know your 4 hr ‘background’ view before even worrying about Ducks 2 or 3. Say even though pa is below sma on the 4hr, does it look like a down trend? If yes, does it look like it’s ready to take a step down?

Anyhow. Good luck.

1 Like

I always follow the babypips forum as I am a new trader. After reading your topic I tried to test it in my own trading business. Tony, what I found is your guidance is actually straight cut. I was struggling for long time and your guide made some hope to get rid of lose. Again I found only lose in my business. I think it will not work for every trader.

1 Like

thanks Perch. i need some luck. and a job that i can do (i got limited work opportunities cause of my state, so that’s why iv’e been taking trading really seriously ). but it hasn’t been what i thought it could be…

i notice though Cap’s results aren’t as high as what i was thinking. (about 1%/month) on darwinex. i don’t know what he got on other years, but from reading other places they reckon short term trading is low profits (teaching pros discourage it). maybe it’s better to trade weekly if high results are hard to come by.

i got forex tester which is good. you get to try out some of those common ideas on the net and see for yourself that they don’t work, although i should redo some of those tests more thoroughly. maybe even basic horizontal trendline bounces on h4 may not even work. so buying fx tester even just to see that a lot of this stuff may not even work is a great idea . if i’m destined to fail, the quicker it happens the better…

perhaps you’re onto something perch - maybe the 4h trend should look beautiful…i don’t know. but whatever it is , it’s not obvious. especially for beginners.

Cool I’m keen to muck around with this, cheers!

Ahoy mateys,

This 4 hour chart (our First Duck) posted below looks interesting to me … any thoughts?

Andy
Captain Currency

not sure captain. don’t think i’m very good at interpreting the 4h chart. what do you think of it? (i have a little guess)

1 Like

[quote=“Captain_Currency, post:3101, topic:6430, full:true”]

This 4 hour chart (our First Duck) posted below looks interesting to me … any thoughts?[/quote]

[quote=“harpoon, post:3102, topic:6430, full:true”]

not sure captain. don’t think i’m very good at interpreting the 4h chart. [/quote]

C’mon, Harpoon, just use your eyes. And don’t over-think it.

Evaluating the 4-hour chart is the easiest part of the 3 Ducks routine, especially when the chart is as un-cluttered as this one.

Just start at the left side of this chart and read the short-story it’s telling you.

I’ll walk you through it –

  • GBP/USD was comfortably above its 60 SMA at the beginning of August, and the SMA was rising (inclined upward).

  • Then, during the first week of August, the pair took a quick plunge down through the 60 SMA, and began a price decline which lasted about 3 weeks. Naturally, the SMA turned down, as well, because the SMA has to follow price on a lagging basis.

  • Then, around the 25th-27th of August, price punched back through the SMA, heading upward. This upward push was strong enough, and persisted long enough, to pull the SMA out of its downward trajectory, and start it curling back toward an upward trajectory.

  • Analysis: The 3-week downturn might be over. This pair might be headed higher. Your First Duck is telling you that you should take a look at the 1-hour chart for further insight.

And that’s all you can glean from this 4-hour chart. It can’t tell you whether to trade this pair at this time. It can’t predict the future. All it can do is alert you to something you might want to examine more closely.

1 Like

I like your thinking Clint, great post and logical analysis. Thanks for taking the time to post.

What I’m thinking is, where does the door open again? Is there a way back in for sellers (the Bears).

Sure, price has crossed above the sma on our 4hr chart but before I get bullish I want to figure-out a spot / a level where sellers might want to come back in to the previous 4hr downtrend.

See, at this stage I’m not totally convinced if the recent break of the sma is the start of a new bullish leg up or if it is just sellers letting a bit of “steam off” before they head south once again.

At the moment the two levels to take our lead from would be:

  1. the resistance area at 1.2994 (highlighted below). If price breaks and holds above this level I’d be bullish this pair, very simple.
  • the 1.2864 area, the area highlighted below the sma. If price sells through this area I’d be thinking bears have taken back control and they’d be targeting the low at 1.2777 (and possibly lower).

Finally, anything within the 1.2994 to 1.2864 levels is a little 50/50 for me (even if all our Ducks lined-up)

Chat soon,

Andy
Captain Currency

3 Likes

Very interesting, price “toying” with both highlighted levels from our previous study post

At this stage all we can take from our 4 hour chart is:

  1. A break and hold above resistance (highlighted) is Bullish.

  2. A break and hold below support (highlighted) is Bearish.


Take care and keep studying those 4 hour charts, your First Duck :duck:

Andy
Captain Currency

Hello
in my opinion even as a debutant there is a rebound on the suport of 1.27788 which will lead him to the level of 1.31446 see more
thank you captain

or maybe is it range, ??