I wouldn’t count on a trend reversal for GBPUSD on the daily chart yet.
The recent down move had completed a 5 step impulse wave and we have now had a 3 step correction wave of that same impulse wave.
Highest chance imo would be for price to continue lower from here over the longer term.
Bet you all thought I’d thrown my teddy out the cot didn’t you 
Well not quite, I’m still working on the back testing, and as requested I will be starting a new thread in due course. However I want to start the new thread with something new, and a step forward. So I’ve not disappeared, and in terms of backtesting etc. I’ll next post on this thread when I’m ready to start my new thread, just as a pointer to those that are interested.
Thanks for the input so far.
[QUOTE=“rindoan;705274”] I wouldn’t count on a trend reversal for GBPUSD on the daily chart yet. The recent down move had completed a 5 step impulse wave and we have now had a 3 step correction wave of that same impulse wave. [/QUOTE]
I’m not so sure I agree with the assessment of impulse/correction at this stage - it will be interesting to see which way this goes.
But what I am interested in is that the 4h has shown good strength today and I reckon this pair is worth keeping an eye on the next few days. Although a 4 h trend is not showing strongly, it is showing some signs of changing to a long bias.
Fwiw, I do pull up the odd daily chart and if that is lining up with the 3Ds then it often hints at a several hundred pip run.
If we get a decent pullback I’ll be in when the ducks go “quack”.
This difference of opinions is what makes trend transitions so difficult to trade.
I don’t disagree with you about the Elliot wave interpretation of the A-B-C corrective pattern. However, as far as the ducks are concerned, on GBPUSD we have crossed over the 4hr SMA, which is also turning upward. We are also above the 1hr SMA.
What do you do tomorrow at the open? Go long or short? Or wait it out?
This is the challenge.
Thanks, glad you found it useful.
I mostly trade the majors except JPY, ie EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and USDCAD.
OK so here go the ducks
GBPJPY long entered
11/06/2015
03:45 GMT+2
Price 190.525
[QUOTE=“Malpip;705395”]OK so here go the ducks GBPJPY long entered 11/06/2015 03:45 GMT+2 Price 190.525[/QUOTE]
I can’t see the ducks lined up at that price? At that time the entry price is below the 1h sma?
Updating yesterday’s analysis for GBPUSD, we now seem to be moving to an uptrend mode.
4hr
We have cleared previous resistance around 1.5435 and are trading above the SMA, with the SMA pointing up.
1hr
We are above the SMA and pulling back into support (previous resistance) and the SMA. This is healthy price action.
Bottom line:
Following yesterday’s strong up move, the retracement is expected and necessary. Market is taking a breather.
I’ll be waiting to see if the support at 1.5435 holds and we consolidate above this level and near the SMA on the 1hr, to stalk a trade.
Hey Malpip,
Regardless of whether the price was below the 60SMA and maybe you entered slightly prematurely, here’s why I think this was a low probability trade.
You will notice that both on the 4hr chart and 1hr chart, price has been see-sawing around the SMA, penetrating below and trying to come above. This indicates a current weakness on the existing trend, in my experience.
From a price action point of view, you will also notice we made Lower Highs and Lower Lows (LH - LL) on the 1hr chart, again a sign of bearish momentum.
For these reasons, I personally would have avoided this trade.
What do you think?
GBPUSD found support around 1.5435
I am watching 1.5470 for an entry, on a break of the last 3 bars on 1hr.
Note that a break of this level will take us on the right side of the SMA on the 5min chart as well.
Hi fxsnowball.
Thank you for your insights into your trading strategy.
I have been trading 5 years without making a great deal of headway.
I now find myself having a very similar strategy to yourself, so I’m hoping I may learn something.
I particularly like the 3 candle breakout, which I now use instead of my 1 candle rule.
The market is giving us a hard run for our money, unfortunately.
I was stopped out on the spike during the news from the US, right before GBPUSD turned higher.
All part of the game. Flat for now.
I made no comments in regards to the 3 duck setups. I purely gave my thoughts on your comment regarding the overall daily trend
hi Fxsnowball
Sometimes it has to be like George Soros says, get in the trade and then manage it.
THe GBPJPY returned 80 pips. The trade hit my target and still moved another 20 pips in the right direction. What i have learnt is that different servers and brokers “post” prices at different times, thus not all charts look the same at the same time.
This said, I may have pulled the trigger a little early but was later confirmed by a following 1 hr candle. This is all new to me and i am learning plenty from all posts, just to see how you reason or plan a trade is really helpful. Unfortunately my experience is limited and i am kinda of just following the set up rules as they stand, other than staying out the market when there is a news release.
I am thankful for all your help and teaching. May it rain pips on you every day!
[QUOTE=“Malpip;705594”]hi Fxsnowball Sometimes it has to be like George Soros says, get in the trade and then manage it. THe GBPJPY returned 80 pips. The trade hit my target and still moved another 20 pips in the right direction. What i have learnt is that different servers and brokers “post” prices at different times, thus not all charts look the same at the same time. This said, I may have pulled the trigger a little early but was later confirmed by a following 1 hr candle. This is all new to me and i am learning plenty from all posts, just to see how you reason or plan a trade is really helpful. Unfortunately my experience is limited and i am kinda of just following the set up rules as they stand, other than staying out the market when there is a news release. I am thankful for all your help and teaching. May it rain pips on you every day![/QUOTE]
But you’re not following the setup rules. You did well to get some pips, but at the end of the day it wasn’t a 3 D entry and was a low probability entry as you were entering in the middle of a range, not a trend.
Thanks so much fxsnowball…for being so open and honest about your wins and losses.
It’s truly a rare thing in these forums.
Very refreshing…and really informative for me to see your posts
Would the 3 ducks system be considered a price action system?
Usually on these forums price action systems are defined by trading candle stick patterns however in the broader meaning of the term it just means you are trading based on what the price does on the chart.
Basis the first definition the 3 ducks would not be considered a price action system but basis the latter it would.
To be honest there is no point in trying to define it as there is nothing to gain.
Thanks RIndoan, My next question is, when I trade the 3 ducks, if i do this for my TP SL
Price goes 25pips in my favor I move SL To BE
once it is 35 pips in my favor i move SL to +10
than 45 i move to +20 etc… everytime after it hits the 25 pips in profit, every 10 pips it gains from there I move my SL with it, does that sound smart?
I think you are giving yourself way to little room for pull backs which is a regular part of the ebb and flow of the markets.
