i’m not sure if this kind of system is for me. i did a test on fx tester and although i had a ‘season’ of profits, as i did more tests (about 60 from memory) i lost a lot of it. to me, it just feels that it’s not enough to line up directions/moving averages and go in. that making money short term trading forex is hard . i’m thinking of trying higher tf (h4/D1+)…
making money in forex is difficult…
Hi Harpoon, this ‘system’ is likely not for everyone. It does need your own view of what the market is doing. It attempts to get you engaged in a trending market. Many trends ‘look’ unique, they don’t all have a nice stair stepper look to them. But some do. I believe it is very important to know your 4 hr ‘background’ view before even worrying about Ducks 2 or 3. Say even though pa is below sma on the 4hr, does it look like a down trend? If yes, does it look like it’s ready to take a step down?
Anyhow. Good luck.
I always follow the babypips forum as I am a new trader. After reading your topic I tried to test it in my own trading business. Tony, what I found is your guidance is actually straight cut. I was struggling for long time and your guide made some hope to get rid of lose. Again I found only lose in my business. I think it will not work for every trader.
thanks Perch. i need some luck. and a job that i can do (i got limited work opportunities cause of my state, so that’s why iv’e been taking trading really seriously ). but it hasn’t been what i thought it could be…
i notice though Cap’s results aren’t as high as what i was thinking. (about 1%/month) on darwinex. i don’t know what he got on other years, but from reading other places they reckon short term trading is low profits (teaching pros discourage it). maybe it’s better to trade weekly if high results are hard to come by.
i got forex tester which is good. you get to try out some of those common ideas on the net and see for yourself that they don’t work, although i should redo some of those tests more thoroughly. maybe even basic horizontal trendline bounces on h4 may not even work. so buying fx tester even just to see that a lot of this stuff may not even work is a great idea . if i’m destined to fail, the quicker it happens the better…
perhaps you’re onto something perch - maybe the 4h trend should look beautiful…i don’t know. but whatever it is , it’s not obvious. especially for beginners.
Cool I’m keen to muck around with this, cheers!
Ahoy mateys,
This 4 hour chart (our First Duck) posted below looks interesting to me … any thoughts?
Andy
Captain Currency
not sure captain. don’t think i’m very good at interpreting the 4h chart. what do you think of it? (i have a little guess)
[quote=“Captain_Currency, post:3101, topic:6430, full:true”]
This 4 hour chart (our First Duck) posted below looks interesting to me … any thoughts?[/quote]
[quote=“harpoon, post:3102, topic:6430, full:true”]
not sure captain. don’t think i’m very good at interpreting the 4h chart. [/quote]
C’mon, Harpoon, just use your eyes. And don’t over-think it.
Evaluating the 4-hour chart is the easiest part of the 3 Ducks routine, especially when the chart is as un-cluttered as this one.
Just start at the left side of this chart and read the short-story it’s telling you.
I’ll walk you through it –
GBP/USD was comfortably above its 60 SMA at the beginning of August, and the SMA was rising (inclined upward).
Then, during the first week of August, the pair took a quick plunge down through the 60 SMA, and began a price decline which lasted about 3 weeks. Naturally, the SMA turned down, as well, because the SMA has to follow price on a lagging basis.
Then, around the 25th-27th of August, price punched back through the SMA, heading upward. This upward push was strong enough, and persisted long enough, to pull the SMA out of its downward trajectory, and start it curling back toward an upward trajectory.
Analysis: The 3-week downturn might be over. This pair might be headed higher. Your First Duck is telling you that you should take a look at the 1-hour chart for further insight.
And that’s all you can glean from this 4-hour chart. It can’t tell you whether to trade this pair at this time. It can’t predict the future. All it can do is alert you to something you might want to examine more closely.
I like your thinking Clint, great post and logical analysis. Thanks for taking the time to post.
What I’m thinking is, where does the door open again? Is there a way back in for sellers (the Bears).
Sure, price has crossed above the sma on our 4hr chart but before I get bullish I want to figure-out a spot / a level where sellers might want to come back in to the previous 4hr downtrend.
See, at this stage I’m not totally convinced if the recent break of the sma is the start of a new bullish leg up or if it is just sellers letting a bit of “steam off” before they head south once again.
At the moment the two levels to take our lead from would be:
Finally, anything within the 1.2994 to 1.2864 levels is a little 50/50 for me (even if all our Ducks lined-up)
Chat soon,
Andy
Captain Currency
Very interesting, price “toying” with both highlighted levels from our previous study post
At this stage all we can take from our 4 hour chart is:
A break and hold above resistance (highlighted) is Bullish.
A break and hold below support (highlighted) is Bearish.
Take care and keep studying those 4 hour charts, your First Duck 
Andy
Captain Currency
Hello
in my opinion even as a debutant there is a rebound on the suport of 1.27788 which will lead him to the level of 1.31446 see more
thank you captain
or maybe is it range, ??
Bravo captain hat low I am adept of your ducks I will learn the best I can very impressed by its simplicity is that I looked for my last message was really the fruit of my debut try to locate me on the market but it is him who always has the last word
Thank you Andy for your sharing that my love a lot of things about 1 year ago but I ny pretai not care I said to myself still a seller a dream dealer anyway I regret not to be back ready to find the ducklings of Captain Andy
with my respect and good trades !! !!!
i appreciate the analyses captain. but i just don’t know. . forex isn’t quite perked up to be what i thought. even these other examples you find all over the place online such as e.g. 4h/D1 range trades with candlestick patterns, or trend-line bounces etc, i’m not so sure they really work… i’ve noticed your performance result on darwinex is about 1.6% after about 10.5 months…).
for me it’s not going too well - little job prospects for various reasons, and no reward after spending enormous amounts of time learning to trade forex… maybe we all should have done shares instead. from what i hear online other places (and people i know of) they make a fair bit per year, even on the weekly timeframe.
i used forex tester a fair bit and tested my own duck like system and although i had a run in those 60 trades (a bit like you) i lost it all. and i tested other things too like range trades and trend-line bounces, and that also did poorly (those tests weren’t as comprehensive though). my feeling too is that a lot of the posters out there answering peoples questions are making very little money if anything at all.
feeling discouraged…
a little quote online somewhere (talks about forex being the hardest market, last line is interesting):
Undoubtedly the most difficult for beginners is Forex. For two reasons. The FX markets turn over $5.3 trillion daily(!), and that’s made up of 4% retail and 96% institutional and other speculative “smart” money. That means you, as a beginner, are competing against some of the smartest quants’ algorithms and largest institutional players in the world. This all means the FX markets are some of the most efficient markets in the world. Hence, any run-of-the-mill strategy (even if the beginner could stick to it) has almost no chance of working over the long term.
That’s a very sad, heart-breaking - and very honest - post, Harpoon. And I am sincerely very sorry to hear of your experiences - although it is clearly a very common outcome for many retail traders!
But the reason is not because the FX market is so huge or that there are so many big players out there. For one thing, the direction of the positions we take is not controlled or restricted in any way by what others are doing and they are not taking the other side of just our positions and pushing them into minus. Afterall, there are huge numbers of retail trade positions open in both directions so only some of them can be losing at any one time.
Also, forex is only a (kind of) zero sum game if you look at it as a closed environment isolated from the rest of the world. For example export-import companies look for favourable rate levels to buy and sell goods, but they are looking at the rate at the time of their commercial deals, and not speculating on how the rates might develop in the future. Even if the rate were to improve even more after they have dealt it doesn’t mean they have “lost” by dealing when they did because their profit is in the mark-up on the goods when they are sold, not from the forex trade.
So the reasons why retail trading does not sometimes work lie somewhere else, and is usually in either the method being used or in the trader themselves - or a mixture of both.
The 3 ducks is a discretionary approach within a set of constraints and prerequisites from various TFs. It therefore offers scope for traders to perform either better or worse at various times. It might therefore be worthwhile analysing your earlier trades to see if you can identify any common features that might be dragging down your performance and which you might be able to turn around.
…but there are always the random chance factors present as well which we have to live with. For example, I left a long EU trade open overnight last night and, since I happened to wake up earlier than usual this morning, I thought I’d take a look how it was doing…It had been doing fine and then, as I watched it, right before my eyes, it sank down to within a few pips of my entry. Being still half asleep I closed it quick and “rescued” a few pips profit, only to then watch it climb straight back up again to the recent highs! Why did I happen to look at it then when I did? And why did it happen to collapse right at that particular time? I don’t know - sometimes stuff just happens! 
But don’t give up. Analyse and analyse and try something different, maybe. I really hope you get there! 
[quote=“harpoon, post:3109, topic:6430”]
for me it’s not going too well - little job prospects for various reasons, and no reward after spending enormous amounts of time learning to trade forex… [/quote]
I hear ya Harpoon, with trading we often get the hangover first before the party.
Wise words Manxx!
Andy
Captain Currency
[quote=“harpoon, post:3109, topic:6430, full:true”]
a little quote
“The FX markets turn over $5.3 trillion daily(!), and that’s made up of 4% retail and 96% institutional and other speculative “smart” money. That means you, as a beginner, are competing against some of the smartest quants’ algorithms and largest institutional players in the world.”[/quote]
[quote=“Manxx, post:3110, topic:6430, full:true”]
But the reason is not because the FX market is so huge or that there are so many big players out there. For one thing, the direction of the positions we take is not controlled or restricted in any way by what others are doing and they are not taking the other side of just our positions and pushing them into minus.[/quote]
Manxx makes a good point.
We (small, retail traders) are not in competition with the heavy-hitters in the currency market.
Rather, we watch the heavy-hitters battle each other, as they react to the fundamentals and technicals in play in the market.
Then we bet on the outcome of their battle.
Our bets can be large or small. And they can be modified, or withdrawn, or reversed, during the course of the battle – giving us a measure of control over our bets which is not available in most betting venues. We do all this without revealing our identities or tipping our hands, because our largest bets are insignificant in this vast market.
I compare it to betting on a heavyweight prize fight, without having to get into the ring.
Honestly Harpoon I am in the same case that you try me some methods and not really successful and account in demo j in the hundreds burned for a year and a half I do not stop the candlesticks MM MACD B.bands … … I’m fed up I win and I lost all as if I was swimming in the emptiness a crazy story 24 h see 48 h in front of the pc ah! I’m going to get there others tell me yes you need a training PFfffff already reaming oar 3000 € / 5000 € / 10000 € and it is good so-called goal it is worse than us I think or maybe there is there who are honest but for whom if he wanted to learn their knowledge he will gladly share it since he does not need money finally respect he melts what he wants
For us it is patience and learning how to learn to trade is simple but we need the method that suits me not yet find but I do not give up too the 3 ducks 3 pigs and many other methods (including thanks to the authors, like “Andy, and many others …”)
then in 1: money management (to master well)
2: stop loss (imperative)
3: cut his losses and let his runnings run
4: Breakeven as soon as we get to half of these gains and preferably take 70% of the profits and let 30% run and get back the breakeven at all the lowest of the there is a higher it makes a free trade and who can pay big
5: and all I do it in demo for about 6 months I lost some money at first I thought I was the only stupid among the traders but it must give the time as told me a trader "Kriss" is not the race is a marathon another big trader said "the market is there to make people stupid" it is clear that it is not easy everyone will be rich LOL !!! do not let go what I learned in 1 year I do not know if other people will have me in 1/3 month the human being and complicate when you know that your eyes are lying to you and your servant deceives you LOL! !!! it's amazing what you can learn in learning "psychology" I find the trading super good luck does not drop as said Manxx "try something different, maybe, I really hope you get there!" Do not change all the time try a method thoroughly and if you can not try another but the money management is the roots because by respecting it you may be able to keep your capital but the losses are part of the business good continuations! !
and I know easier to say than to do it but yet no secret and no holy grail (ah I make you a Roman)
Evening all and greetings from Ireland,
I have been reading and re-reading this thread and wanted to reply.
I wanted to post the following chart (GBP/AUD) and see what you all thought.
Price is now contained below the 4hr SMA with 1 hr confirming.
The key areas to see if bulls or bears are biting are 1.766 for long or 1.749 for short with pricing bouncing off this area currently - a close below this area will confirm bear control.
I appreciate your feedback.
Happy Thursday,
Padraic
Possibly - but where do you put it ?
Lose a few pips - your loss is “locked in”
Put it at “catastrophic level” and you have the room to let it return to BE or profit !
SL’s are one of the most insidious causes of “account reduction” - combined with “spreads” they come close to guaranteeing the 90-90-90 rule
