There’s already a perfectly adequate filtering process in place called a top down approach, so why would you need to add another layer?
It has been mentioned on several occasions within the contents of this thread by the more experienced posters that the most efficient & logical selection process is to choose the appropriate pairs exhibiting (current) strength v/s weakness & then use the top down filtering procedure to set up your potential entries & exits.
It was even reiterated again recently in post #1381 by DoubleEcho.
One such link to quickly determine that state of play has also been included on several occasions on here which I will once again repeat: Futures Currencies Chart Daily
So a very quick glance at the assorted currencies reveals Sterling trending in a solid bullish cycle, offset with Canadian & Australian Dollars trending with a strong bearish tone, which was also noted in post #1381 back on the 12th of this month & nothing has really changed since that contribution.
So, using the 4 & 1 hour technical filters to your advantage, how many high probability long opportunities in either of those pairings could you have availed yourself of over the past few weeks?
GBP/CAD alone would have kept you well fed since DoubleEcho’s post of the 12th.
I think there are over 50 different pairs out there, you won’t be able to follow’em all and some are highly correlated. If I was you I’d just focus on a select basket of major pairs and a few cross pairs.
[B]For no scientific reason …[/B] the 8 pairs I normally focus on are:
Eur.Usd
Usd.Chf
Gbp.Usd
Eur.Gbp (cross pair)
Aud.Usd
Usd.Cad
Usd.Jpy
Eur.Jpy (cross pair).
Thanks for the link and the re-explanation. I know you experienced guys get tired of repeating things, but we noobs really appreciate it. Everything is so overwhelming for us, too much info to read and evaluate and process. We don’t like having to ask dumb questions, but we only have dumb questions!! lol
We noobs all are hoping to see the day when we are past the dumb questions too, and understand what’s going on. :39:
Nobody gets tired of explaining things, that’s not it at all.
The fact remains there’s nothing else to explain that isn’t already covered in the first post of the thread.
What frustrates & exasperates the established posters/observers of the thread is newcomers who constantly attempt to change, add, re-arrange and/or fiddle with the basic structure of the model. A lot of them are also incredibly impatient. They expect trades/bets to be available every session of every day & it simply doesn’t work that way.
I’m not saying this applies to you Glenn, but it’s patently obvious from a lot of the comments that folks don’t even take the time to read & digest the first post on the thread properly. If they did & they contined to read thru the first 20 odd pages of the thread, most of their queries would be covered.
The first post explains everything that’s required.
It applied when it was first presented back in 2007
It still applies in its original format today & it will continue to apply as long as instruments generate volatility & momentum.
Nothing needs to be added, swapped, re-arranged or fiddled with.
@liane: the link " Futures Currencies Chart Daily" you gave, can you please explain what to look for? Are they pairs with USD? If so, looking at USD it should be 1.000. I am lost. Much appreciate. Thank you.
That graphic simply highlights those individual nation’s currencies which are displaying strength as opposed to weakness, which he explained in his accompanying text.
The benefits of including that important feature is also referenced again recently in DoubleEcho’s post
& again in AltTab’s recent offering
You don’t need to know the in’s & out’s how or why futures prices are calculated to utilize the benefits of this analysis, only which of the assorted trading nations currency is currently over or under performing.
It’s merely a quick heads up to focus your attention onto potentially higher probability opportunities going forward.
As has been pointed out, that graphic shows you that during the past 3 months there have been 3 stand out trending vehicles. The British Pound has been very clearly trending up whilst it’s trading partners in Australia & Canada have been very clearly trending down.
Therefore, the highest probability of success over that corresponding period would be to have the gbpaud & gbpcad at the forefront of your watch list & focus on executing long trades every time those pairs set up according to the rules of the 3 Ducks.
It also offers you the choice of timeframes to determine how you view & interpret that information, ensuring it more accurately reflects your particular trading style & time duration.
Don’t become bogged down in the detail, simply concentrate on the information that offers relevance & assistance in your quest to extract profit from the market via the method contained within the pages of this thread.
Stumbled upon this method today and tried it on GBPJPY EUrJPY for no scientific reason as well and exited them with profit already. Both were sells and TP on the next available resistance on the 4 hour chart
For the week ahead, (3 - 7 Feb) it looks like our Ducks would favor:
[B]buying set-ups on these major pairs:[/B]
Usd.Cad (price above 4hr sma)
Usd.Chf (price above 4hr sma)
[B]selling set-ups on these major pairs:[/B]
Eur.Usd (price below 4hr sma)
Gbp.Usd (price below 4hr sma)
Aud.Usd (price below 4hr sma)
Usd.Jpy (price below 4hr sma)
[B]selling set-ups on these cross pairs:[/B]
Eur.Jpy (price below 4hr sma)
Eur.Gbp (price below 4hr sma)
[B]Careful … NEWS[/B]
Next week (3 - 7 Feb) is a busy week, lots of news knocking about and lots of trend traders waiting to see what happens. If you need to trade next week then do it very carefully!
News releases:
Tuesday the 4th we’ve got an interest rate statement out of Australia (RBA).
Thursday the 6th we’ve got interest rate statements out of England (BoE) and the Eurozone (ECB).
Friday we’ve got Non Farm Payrolls out of the US.
Good trading to you all for the week ahead,
[B]Andy
Captain Currency
[/B]
These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use or reliance on such information.
Andy has repeatedly offered a couple of recommendations within the thread including 20 pips stop/30 pip take profit objectives for short duration based traders.
Alternatively, he has also advised you could configure your stop & profit placements on or around sub & hourly (5m + 1 and/or 4 hour) swing levels.
It will very much depend what type of time duration & trading style you prefer to adopt.
The best option is to experiment with your own parameters reflecting the approach you’re seeking to use.
I’ve heard a lot about this system on babypips, has anyone set up a long-term myfxbook page following this system only? I couldn’t find anything on the myfxbook search.
I know it’s been running since 2007, but it would be great to see the long term trends of this system to study what months it goes down, and how often that compares to up months.
With so many followers I’m sure someone must have set up a page.
I’ve certainly been detailing my history since trading a variant of it, but then I’ve always recorded my logs for reference & tracking purposes.
The only people privy to it however, are those who will be offering me a funding deal once I’ve demonstrated the required consistency which looks like it will be then end of this quarter god willing!
I have absolutely no interest whatsoever in sharing it in the public domain & why would I unless I was contemplating some sort of marketing or sales gimmick.
I also know of 1 other long term member of this thread who keeps precise records, but again he’s doing so because it enables him to accurately track & monitor his progess.
If you’re that interested in the strategy then record your own stats.
Not everyone is motivated to share their hard work & diligence just to sate your curiosity.
I can see the potential, but sad to say I’m still missing the good trades…:rolleyes: I think I’m trading too many pairs hoping to figure out which ones will profit, but loosing 1/2 of them at the same time. I am having fun and am happy to find a simple system, just hoping whatever part(s) I’m missing will eventually “click” in my head.
Btw, when you guys are saying to use Support & Resistance levels for setting SL & TP, what are you using to decide the Support & Resistance levels? Aren’t they different for each time frame? Are pivot points similar, or not?
Sorry if I’m asking something that’s been covered a hundred times already, I must be a slow learner. (Feel free to put me on your “ignore list” if my questions annoy you) I’ll reread the 3 Ducks manual too…maybe it’ll soak in this time.
(Feel free to put me on your “ignore list” if my questions annoy you) I’ll reread the 3 Ducks manual too…maybe it’ll soak in this time.