Out at TP 1.16651, 15 pips for profit of +$151
What a day its been, my best trading day yet with over $750 profit on 4 trades 
Congratulations on the trades however it makes more sense to speak in terms of risk/reward or % instead of stating how much you have made in $ terms.
As an example I currently have an open position in USDJPY (yes I wish I had taken EURJPY instead) that is up 10000$, does that mean my trade is 13 times better than yours? No. (My RR on the trade is 1:4 RR so far and counting).
Unless you state your risk any profit statement is non nonsensical.
Not as black and white as you think.
I enter with RR of 1:2 - 1:3 generally, then move my SL to protect my profits. What’s my RR then?
You should only measure your RR prior to trading, not as you go along (… so far and counting)
At the end of the day its cash in hand that matters, Your usdjpy is great, providing nothing goes wrong before you cash it in.
Is GU a sell now based on 3 ducks? Jan 15 2:30 pm PST
Thanks
Say you put on a trade at NY closing time with a 25 pip stop loss and a daily average range of 100 pips which you expect to exit after 24 hours.
You aim is then for a move abt the daily average range meaning 100 pips which would equal abt 1:4 RR.
In your specific example above you stated you had made 750 usd so those are closed trades I assume.
It would be easy to calculate your RR when the trade is done.
You calculate the RR from where your SL is when you placed the trade initially and not after you move it down with your trailing SL.
You are correct it would be a sell at a break of a 5min low.
Hi, interesting thought. I have never based my RR on the daily average range, only ever on the ratio between my SL and TP at the time of entry.
Unless you’re planning to be in a trade for exactly a full day, why would you base your RR on a days average range?
I also don’t see the point in calculating RR after the trade is done. Once you’ve left a trade there is no RR, the cash is in your pocket
The days average range gives an indication of how far a trade may go. Rindoan showed it his post above.
You have to calculate the actual RR after the trade is done, otherwise how do you know how much you made against how much you risked?
If you risk 2% of a £10000 account, then you are risking £200. If your stop loss is 40 pips, then that is £5 a pip you are risking. If the average daily range is 100 pips you can project a target of 1:2.5 RR. However let’s say it doesn’t quite make it, you have set an order to take profit at 100 pips, but it looks like it may stall earlier. So you take a profit at 80 pips, so your final RR is 1:2. You risked 40 pips and gained 80 pips. You can only calculate this after you have taken profit.
Sorry Bobcon, but I think its a big mistake to base your SL on what your max risk is.
I know my max risk and have that figure in mind, likewise I know how many pips I can go to before I hit that, but I place my SL according to support/resistance lines. On my first few trades I did exactly what you suggest and I kept getting stopped out by 1-minute spikes because my SL was too tight.
My RR is usually around the 1:2 - 1:3 ratio so I am not being overly ambitious. I would rather take a little and often than risk everything on one big hit.
I think you missunderstand what he is saying.
Most of us place our SL based on support and resistance for the most part.
One trade you can have a logical SL at 20 pips and the next trade you can have a logical SL at 30 pips.
Now if you plan to risk 2% of your capital each trade the 20 pip SL trade position would be 50% larger than the 30 pip SL position.
As I recall you stating a while back you just put on a fixed position size each trade so the above way of using money management would not apply to this way of thinking as you do not risk the same % of your account on each trade.
Hope none of you 3 duck traders were affected by all the brokers shutting their doors.
Hi.
At the beginning I did work on the same position size which meant I always had the same max SL pip position. Then I got spiked out 4 or 5 times in a week or so, only to see the trade turn back where I thought they would, but I was out by then. Thats when I started changing my position sizes so I could have wider SL’s and go for S&R levels rather than 20 pips or whatever, but still stay within my money management rules.
Hope that makes sense
Eddieb, I think you misunderstand what I am saying, nowhere do I say to use a fixed stop loss. Not sure where you get that from? I use S/r levels, in fact pretty much exactly like Rindoan has explained. If there is a nice chart structure I may place the target using that as focus but intetpretation of the daily range and further extension is always at the base of any decision.
My stops, if anything, seem a little larger than most on here, normally in the 30-50 pips range, but sometimes up to 100 if the structure warrants it. If a trade is placed with a 100 stop, I would use half the position I would place on a 50 stop trade. Personally I use a max of 1% for each trade.
From your last post you appear to be doing something similar. I think what you misunderstood was the xplanation about RR - the past few pages explain all that quite clearly. I set out knowing the maximum I can lose is 1% - that could be 20 pips, 40 pips or 100 pips. If the trade makes back, for instance, twice the risk, ie 2%, then my RR is 1:2.
Over time I analyse performance. Say you have a 50 % win rate at 1:2, then you will lose half the trades but every winner will return twice the risk. Let’s say 1% is £100, then the average winners would be £200. Out of 10 trades, you would lose 5, so £500 lost. But you would win 5, each worth £200, so £1000 won. So you are £500 up. That’s why people bang on about having RR, you can lose more than half the trades (in fact I think Rindoan says 35% earlier), but because you win more than you are losing each time you make a steady profit. As long as you don’t get greedy. That’s why personally I stick to 1%. Stick with the slow train:)
Hi. First off, apologies for our discussion going slightly off - thread.
I dont recollect saying “fixed” either
My stops, if anything, seem a little larger than most on here, normally in the 30-50 pips range, but sometimes up to 100 if the structure warrants it.
Same here. I reduce my position size so that I can place wider stops without breaking my MM rules
From your last post you appear to be doing something similar. I think what you misunderstood was the xplanation about RR - …I set out knowing the maximum I can lose is 1% - that could be 20 pips, 40 pips or 100 pips. If the trade makes back, for instance, twice the risk, ie 2%, then my RR is 1:2.
I read this as meaning you calculate your R R during and at the end of a trade. I calculate mine prior to entry. Once im in the trade and start moving stops to lock in profit my risk gradually reduces to zero
Over time I analyse performance. Say you have a 50 % win rate at 1:2, then you will lose half the trades but every winner will return twice the risk… you can lose more than half the trades (in fact I think Rindoan says 35% earlier), but because you win more than you are losing each time you make a steady profit. As long as you don’t get greedy. That’s why personally I stick to 1%. Stick with the slow train:)
My success rate is 55%, and I make 4 times as much on winners as I lose on fails
Anyhow, perhaps we should allow the thread to get back on track now.
Modification: Ducks with envelopes
Here are some ideas for this Monday
NZD CAD:
Screenshot “2088891631_ LMAX-DemoUK - Demo Account - [NZDCAD.lmx,M5] 2015-01-18…”
GBP USD:
Screenshot “2088891631_ LMAX-DemoUK - Demo Account - [GBPUSD.lmx,M5] 2015-01-18…”
GBP JPY:
Screenshot “2088891631_ LMAX-DemoUK - Demo Account - [GBPJPY.lmx,H1] 2015-01-18…”
I hope you like it!
I agree with your direction however have no idea what all those lines on your chart is about.
Totally agree. I was only trying to help with a couple of your misconceptions, so no worries.
There seems to be a nice setup forming on EURUSD.
- 4hr price is below the SMA, with the SMA pointing downward
- 1hr we had a pullback to the SMA and previous resistance, and are currently moving lower
- 5min we broke below the SMA, consolidated and are attempting to move lower
There was also a break of a trendline on the 5min and a double top around 1.1635, for those who are following price action. Stochastic on the 1hr retraced to the OB area, a high-probability short setup on EURUSD downtrend recently.
Greetings Duck Hunters,
Don’t forget the European Central Bank (ECB) will be back in town this Thursday 22nd. I wouldn’t be waiting for them to change the rate but I’d be curious what they might say about monetary easing in the press conference afterwards.
Having said all that … a quick market scan today and technically it looks like our First Duck (H4) would favor the selling set-ups on the cross pair Eur.Gbp.
This cross pair is not the most “glamorous” pair to trade but it can knock out small and regular winning trades when it is trending (like it is now).
Chat soon,
Andy
Captain Currency
These are not trade recommendations. The 3 Ducks Trading System is best used as a set of guidelines with discretion in addition with your own market analysis and trading ideas. I do not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use or reliance on such information.
Mornin Capt. Just wanted to say thanks for the great video’s, Babypips thread and the phrase "Not quantity, but quality phrase.
One quick question have you ever tried the ducks of CFD’s?
Again Best Wishes and Continued Success
Gp