I was trying to go short on AUD/USD using the Advanced Duck approach, and it went down to hit my sell order, then some news came out, and it reversed and went up 110 pips, lol. I’m only trading 1% on a $10 account, while I get experience. I think my mistake was to trade ahead of the CPI news. I guess we should avoid CPI news? I think this is what got me (link was blocked):
“The Australian dollar, which had been trading slightly lower on further signs of a growth slowdown in Australia from the latest Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index of economic activity, surged almost US1¢ on the CPI figures, before slipping slightly.”
@captain currency Hello sir forex market has been changing over the years n still changing so we need to change our trading strategy according to the market condition or can we stick to the same plan over the years ???
In 3 ducks we use SMA which is a lagging indicator na so it tends to react according to the present market conditions ri8?
This kind of stuff happens [U]ALL [/U] the time. The way i see it is the market is highly random and things like this will happen very frequently.
One strategy is that you could not trade before large news events and may miss some of these quick spikes. One other thing to consider is that it could have easily gone the way you wanted also and you could have profited off that trade.
Just keep your risk the same each time and keep going, you are bound to get stopped out sometimes anyways. Avoiding news events will reduce the chance of fast spikes happening but may reduce the number of trade opportunity’s you may get. Its a choice you’ll have to make. The captain suggests avoiding some news events on the first post though.
What size of stoploss are you using? I take the daily Demarker value, add 1 to it, the mulitple this number to the dailt ATR, and that’s my stoploss. It will look like a big stoploss, but we are swing trading! The AUDUSD for me would currently have a 127point SL.
I shorted AUD/USD at .80282 on the 22nd with the break below the low of the 7th. My stop is 269 pips from my entry at .82972 (just over the 15th high which is the current 10-day high). I will lower it as the ten day high falls. That said, it will be into the 2nd week of February before I move my stop to break even. Since I opened this trade, I saw the price move to 170 pips positive and now back to 6 pips positive. Ha! Lettin’ it ride.
I’m not swing-trading, I’m trying to do Capt Currencies “3 Ducks System”. I don’t think I’ve ever heard him mention a Demarker value or ATR. My Stop Loss is at 20 pips, and TP is at 30 pips. Are you using a modified version of 3 Ducks?
AUD USD crossed 1h MA on 27.01. 8:00 GMT, so it should be closed then. But even earlier it crossed MA of 5m on 23.01 at 8.00 GMT, so you could close it with profit 28 pips.
I am trading my own set-ups: DMT. My strategy is the sort that Jerry Parker is talking about below. It is a Donchian Trend Following approach.
In AUD/USD, I go short at the break of a 10-day low and get out at the break of a 10-day high and I only trade in the direction away from the MDMA (the 200 day moving average).
That actually puts me in a lot of trades in the same direction and in similar places as the 3-duck system. The 60 period 4H moving average used by the 3-duck system translates roughly to a 10-day moving average and I am using 10 day highs and lows as entries and exits.
What I am specifically betting is that the ten day high of AUD/USD will drop below the Jan 7th low before being broken. Simple as that. That is my bet and I am sticking to it win or lose, the market has not proven me wrong and if it does I will take my loss with no quibbles.
I hope you realize that you’ve wandered into the [B]3-duck[/B] thread not the [B]DMT, Jerry Parker, Donchian Trend Following approach[/B] thread.
Maybe if you easy up on the “mind altering” you realize you’re derailing the thread with unrelated posts and “BIG PICS” etc. Donchian Channels, 200ma and daily time frames… wrong thread!!!
Sorry. I was certainly getting craaazy. I am only mentioning that my trades are aligned with the 3-ducks system for the time being. And that is common because of the similar choice of periodicity in the analysis.
