Well what you’re saying makes no sense to me. All I know is that I have a chart and it’s most certainly tradeable. Long or short. Take your pick.
Oh Jeez. Please. I cannot stand the excitement. This will be the second thread today that goes pear shaped.
And I just happened to be on both. Starting to get a complex now.
Sure mate, my mom told me that arguing with dumb people is a waste of time. My mommy is always right 
That’s 55 pips currently by my calcs. Not huge. But with a big enough lot size???
Play nice. Both of you. Please. Some good stuff on this thread.
Now MOVING ON!!! LOL!!!
From what I gather this is certainly no new idea. Found many posts and threads where people were asking the same thing. For obvious reasons I suppose.
From what I gather: it’d be cheaper to just short the pair and pay the interest.
long is cheaper
Very true. But then it’s not a one way bet. Be nice if it was bobbing along the bottom of the range. But it ain’t. And I don’t have the luxury of being able to experiment. The short is the more guaranteed trade (peg not being removed by surprise being the obvious elephant in the room).
My support is holding, I am in the plus…Worse case is break even for me.
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Well there’s a first. Apparently I’ve done too many edits for the day so cannot delete any more posts until a 24 hour period has elapsed!!! So will tidy up here later.
its not tradable, its bettable. fine but huge difference 
you are doing spread betting right now (in case you didnt get the hint).
I don’t know how to respond.
It’s a FOREX pair like any other is it not.
If you’re talking about what happens in the REAL world of currency exchange then maybe you’re right. I really cannot comment. But that’s of no concern to me or anybody else that is able to trade the pair on a platform.
Not being full of it. Really don’t understand what you’re saying or from what angle you’re approaching this from is all.
ok, i said i wont go into details about pegged currencies but now im at a keyboard and not on my phone.
pegged currencies can not be traded against each other because the two governments (central banks) do not want their currencies to free float against each other. there are several methodes of achieving this, the most common is this:
one cntral bank announces a fixed exchange rate at 08.00 morning their time (or midnight, plays norole anyways) and the central bank will then hedge all incomming and outgoing trades.
suppose a hongkong company buys 5 boeings for 1 billion, then the company will exchange the equivalent of 1billion usd from HKD in order to pay in USD, the central bank will do the exact opposite at the exact same time, in order to maintain their fixed rate. they hedge. or in other words, the central bank of hong kong will buy exactly 1 billion usd on the free market.
understand that so far?
this makes the usd/hkd untradable as it is not a free floating currency.
you can not actively participate in the market, because the fluctuations in the price are so tiny, so damn tiny, so extremely tiny, that there is no broker who can offer you to trade on it and realistically ever acrually perform more profit than the spread and comissions would cost (simple example, usd/hkd fixed rate is 100, [inflated and round number to make the example easier to understand] the minimum a broker wants as spread and comission is 0,25 … now, the exchange rate is set to 100, it will always stay 100 (thats why its called pegged) and the daily fluctuations move in the field of 0,0001 cents of those 100 or even less.
taking into consideration that your comission and spread is 0,25 and the daily fluctuation is 0,0001 it is entire impossible for you to make any profits on this deal, you can only accumulate losses. taking into consideration that it plays no role what happened today, the usd/hkd will tomorrow again be exactly 100 then it is even more so impossible to make profits.
it willl always be 100. since 1997 it was 100 and it will never change.
so the only way to “trade” usd/hkd is by spreadbetting on it. (gambling)
yesterday you wrote a post (i remeber it but dont remember where it was) saying: stay the ■■■■ away from spread betting.
now you are spread betting.
thats all i wanted to say.
oh and again: peged currencies can not be traded against each other. p-e-r-i-o-d.
One VERY small problem with this. Actually one very BIG problem with this. Depends on how you look at things. And would explain why nobody (at least not in the retail market) is trading this thing.
At my broker anyway:
In order to get $100 USD per pip movement (the minimum that could justify taking a trade such as this) would require, wait for it, $562 858.35 USD IN MARGIN if shorted at 7.8500!!! Now I don’t know about you but for me: if I was sitting with that amount of money well, then, cannot say for certain, but I don’t think I’d be sitting here trying make a few thousand USD on USDHKD!!! LOL!!!
please read my previous post
Now that’s more like it. Nice post. And I get you now.
And yes: as per my previous post I have just proved that it’s not worth it. Not that it cannot be done. But it’s not worth it. My spread is currently only 14 pips on the pair. So that wouldn’t stop any trade. But the lack of leverage most certainly does. But then again: I’m subject to ESMA restrictions on leverage. Maybe with one of these bucket shops that offer ridiculous leverage it could work. But: dunno if you’d ever be able to withdraw your money.
As for spread betting: you got the wrong person here I’m afraid. For sure nothing that I would have said.
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LOL!!! I have to agree with that logic!
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Late last night I received and alert from Bloomberg. And then I remembered what this POS currency is for!!! IT IS THE CARRY TRADE STUPID!!! (Had to dust off ye olde cobwebs there).
This is not for your average Joe retail spot FOREX trader. This for those that have piles of cash and can borrow in one currency at a low interest rate and invest in another currency at a higher interest rate and earn the difference in interest which is ostensibly a risk free trade in this particular scenario because of the HKD peg. However: after doing yet some more research into this I see mention that this could be the next “big short” i.e. Hong Kong has had to again step in to defend the currency. But if this practice continues and particularly now with the USD dropping in value the scenario exists where they could run out of reserves and no longer be able to do this in which case the peg will fail.
If anybody knows anything about George Soros and the billions he made shorting the GBP: this pretty much the same scenario albeit that there was no peg in place on the GBP but England was forced to defend their currency under John Major as they had an agreement with Germany at the time (long story and Google it if you’re really interested) (actually some good videos out there on “Black Wednesday”). Anyway: point is the BOE could no longer defend the value of the GBP and people like Soros just kept on piling on the pressure until it collapsed.
Black Wednesday:
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