The Contrary trading ...is it stupid?

I believe that in this industry, any strategy of work is quite worthy of implementation. More importantly - to understand how it is more profitable to implement.

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I make most of my trades this way, as a contrarian intraday price action trader.
I typically hold trades from 8-18 hours, and look for setups near the previous wave impulse range crest/trough.

Knowing that most traders are going to be wrong, learn to zig when they zag.

Understanding trader psychology is very important.

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Great question Kurmur. I wondered the same thing many times over the past few months. I concluded that all of the training provide at trading sites, market sites, education links etc are authored by people that want you to understand their philosophy and trading techniques etc. In the end, they have 99% of the retail traders all dancing to the same drum beat. Then, when the time is right, they pull the rug and our investments out from under us. So - Contrary Trading - YAH I THINK IT CAN BE A WONDERFUL APPROACH AT TIMES, maybe together with your common sense trade techniques and analysis throw in a ridiculous buy or sellā€¦ I havenā€™t done it yet but Iā€™m about to take some of my own advice. Good luck. Let me know how it goes for you.

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I got totally hooked on reversal and itā€™s been dismalā€¦ thanks for confirming my doubts!

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correct :+1: the strategy mighty be very okay but ones risk management that fails them like setting up a very tight SL,or entering too early/late. thatā€™s trading.

especially one who has specialized in trading pullbacks in up/down-trends.with perfect timing of entries and exits.

It depends on. I heard 80% (or even more) of traders are wrong, they are mostly newbies who donā€™t comprehend the game or try to get rich qucikly cause they saw any ā– ā– ā– ā– ā– ā– ā– ā– -lifestyle posts of some fake instagram accounts.

so in fact if you would choose the opoosite direction of the market sentiment, you could be actually be on the right side of the track.

But this is not how the game works. As I was a beginner I traded short timeframes and they mostly went in the wrong direction. Why? Well I just checked the higher timeframes of my loosing trades and then recognized that the lower timeframes were mostly showing the wrong structure, I missed the bigger picture of the market/trend.

So I would reccomand you not to trade the opposite, well at least not on a real accoount and just check the higher timeframes.

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Still sounds like gambling, bro. I donā€™t get it, I mean you analyze and come to the result to buy, but you would like to take the opposite (reasons are already mentioned by you above), so Iā€™m wondering what kind of analysis you are doing :smiley: Maybe you should reanalyze your way of analyzing the market

Absolutely baffling how 69% of people are long when the chart looks like that.

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Bonkers!

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Good stuff @chesterjohn.

My theory is that these sorts of contrary positions are driven by fear - fear that the market will cause financial loss and emotional pain. I suspect these traders reason that the market is dangerous, therefore get in and out as quickly as possible. A trend reversal looks like it would fit the bill.

In fact its like driving faster and faster on an icy road so that you can get home sooner and get off the iceā€¦

I can sort of understand after a big move like we had on Friday afternoon that a retracement is coming and people are in on that. But leaving it open over a weekend when the market is on such a strong uptrend seems crazy.

I suspect it could well open with a gap lower on Monday, but itā€™s not a sensible trade with how the markets are at the moment. Thereā€™s a reason why so many people lose money, and itā€™s the idea that price has just moved up so it must move down next

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That totally depends on how you do it. Trading against the market is risky but you can be successful with contrary trading strategies. How you execute it will determine the success rate at the end of the day. But I would suggest you look back on the trades that you lost and see how they went wrong. That will give you a better idea on how to make profitable trading decisions. Just doing the opposite of what you are already doing may not guarantee success. You cannot assume that your analysis was entirely wrong just because you were losing trades. There are many other factors that come into play during a trade. So please take your time and see what you can do about it.

That will be successful only if you were entirely wrong when it comes to making trading decisions. Most of the time, we are not totally wrong but make minor mistakes that lead to losses. In that case, taking a u turn may not be fruitful. It is better to look at your past trades in order to identify where you went wrong and try to correct that instead.

Hmmmā€¦ This is quite an ambitious and perspective strategy, however if you donā€™t have enough experience, skills and knowledge in trading, everything is for nothing. The matter here is to have an ability not to run away from the analysis, but make some decisions based on the forecast ā€œwhat if I donā€™t comply with the analysis?ā€. So, in this case you either will be lucky (lol i hate the word luck in trading, but anyway), or you will fail. In addition, the second option is more possible as the denial of your analysis often leads to such consequences. However, if this move is wise enough, then why not?

Not at all, play against the fallacious wisdom of the crowds, confederacy of retail dunces, if 95% fail then 95% are wrong with their analysis.

But as a price action trader I ultimately trade on 12-18h probabilistic outcomes.

Id say no - because the problems with trading are mental in nature for the most part. Your analysis was most likely correct to begin with - all that doing the opposite does is switch your attention to the other market direction - it doesnt solve the problem of you choking when in a trade.

Believe me Ive tried it.