The Daily Edge - A Complete Cross Asset Analysis

Quick Take

The thematic in the forex arena has swiftly transitioned from the US-Iranian crisis, which had led to an injection of risk off flows, to a more benign landscape, dominated by a sense that the global stabilization thesis into 2020 is still panning out. The European block (EUR, GBP, CHF) led the charge higher after ‘across the board’ improvements in EZ/UK services PMIs, with further backing by the notable jump in German retail sales and the EZ sentix investor confidence. The recovery in risk appetite trumped the upward trajectory of the Yen, by far the worst performing currency as the week gets underway. The Aussie is not showing signs of life so far after the China services PMIs from Caixin / Markit came at a disappointing, but most importantly, the market pricing for a February rate cut by the RBA has gone up marginally as the ramifications of the bush fires for the overall economic activity in the country play out. The Kiwi was largely unchanged for the day, with no drivers to take note of. The USD traded on the weak side despite still being one of the best performers this year, while the CAD built up on recent gains against the weakest currencies out there such as the Yen, Aussie or Kiwi.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

One of the immediate effects whenever the dark clouds of war prospects hover around is the increase if volatility. Sadly, that’s precisely what we saw in the opening of the Asian session after news broke out that at least 30 missiles had landed at Iraq’s Ain Al-Asad airbase among other locations, targeting US forces. The retaliation by Iran to the death of its highest military profile leader has now taken long, and the open question now remains, to what extend will the US strike back? Will a war be declared? The buying of the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc currencies was fast and furious, as it was the sell-off that hit the Oceanic currencies (AUD, NZD). The rest of G8 FX (EUR, GBP, CAD, USD) were not greatly affected by the ebbs and flows as a result of the jump in risk aversion. Instruments were the panic mode was immediately noticeable included equities, where the S&P 500 futures wiped out all the gains since mid Dec, the price of Oil, which received a punchy spell of demand, alongside the further defiance of gravity by a flying gold. The fluid situation heralds the clear risk of unraveling into a full-on war, with the ramifications being heightened volatility in Gold, Oil, the Yen, Swiss Franc, Bond yields and equities. Should the US refrain from engaging in further retaliation, a major relief rally could be in store. Much will depend of whether the attacks have claimed US casualties.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

QUICK TAKE

Most of the volatility on Wednesday was concentrated along the Asian hours. Initial panic selling triggered by the prospects the US declaring war to Iran were relatively quickly met with the realization that such idea was unjustified judging by the delay for Trump to make any formal statement. What set out to be a very cloudy outlook for risk-sensitive assets shifted into an epic short-squeeze that lasted until the final hours of New York. If, as a trader, you are yet to do the hard yards in financial markets, the last 24h provides a great opportunity to understand in all its splendor the dynamic and efficient nature of the markets. One hour it may look like all hell breaks loose, while in the next, the psyche can change in a dime. After the headlines broke out of an attack to US personnel in Iraq by Iran, it became a binary outcome to figure out. Without much fact-checking available, the immediate premise was that Trump would need to strike back (war?), leading to a sudden fall in equities, bond yields, buying of Yens, Swissies, Gold. However, as Trump delayed its appearance with an official response until the next day, it acted as a revealing clue that an escalation of the conflict was probably not on the table. As Europe and American markets came online, the U-turn day kept playing out, only to get a final boost as Trump downplayed the attack with market friendly headlines.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

The bout of risk appetite that originated soon after the Iranian missile attacks to US-controlled air bases in Iraq stood the course through Thursday’s trading as the air clears with seemingly no intention from either side to engage in further retaliatory conflicts. The ebbs and flows remain supportive of the US Dollar, and as the regular readers of the Daily Edge are aware, I have reiterated for weeks the risk of a turnaround in fortunes for the world’s reserve currency, mainly predicated on the combination of the outperformance it has in January alongside the cheap valuation it traded at the turn of the decade. The market has also retained a sell-side bias in the Japanese Yen as the preferred instrument to deleverage from. The Kiwi, amid no apparent distinct catalyst, and the Pound, pressured by dovish remarks by BoE’s boss Carney, fell at an even more rapid pace though. In the case of the Pound, the macro outlook, with the EU expressing left and right a comprehensive trade deal this year is ‘effectively impossible’, looks quite grim, which is also part of the reason the GBP is under pressure as the market has shifted the attention towards the phase of trade negotiations. Still al long way to go though. The Swiss Franc, meanwhile, continues to defy logic and for now is a train headed northbound steadily. The single currency (Euro) put up a decent performance too, even if lagging behind the strongest contenders for Thursday (USD, CHF), with no fundamental catalysts of note. Lasty, the Aussie and Canadian Dollar, on balance, were little change. The market are now awaiting the US NFP and Canadian jobs report as the next volatility booster in the currency market.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

After an impressive start of 2020, the USD was unable to keep attracting buy-side flows, with the US NFP not justifying the extension of that momentum. The headline employment figures came a tad below expectations even if the real catalyst keeping bulls at bay came in the form of wage pressure, lowest print since July 2018. The Aussie, on the contrary, drew the steadiest buy-side interest since the very start of the Asian session last Friday in response to an outsized upbeat reading in Australian retail sales. This time, the Kiwi was able to play catch up and managed to successfully piggy-back the momentum of its neighboring peer. But even amid USD weakness, other currencies such as the Pound or the Canadian Dollar didn’t capitalize on it, especially the Pound, with the selling tendency from Friday extending at the open of Asia today as interbank dealings were dominated by supply imbalances in response to the dovish remarks by Bank of England MPC member Vlieghe. The Yen continues to retain a clear bearish bias even if by analyzing the index, one must be aware that the evolving flows show volume tapering, with weakness led by momentum accounts vs real money. The EUR, as it’s been the case for some time, keeps showing dull movements with low vol the norm. Note, this week’s economic calendar is lighter than usual, dominated by second tier events.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

The Swiss Franc’s stellar performance should be of no surprise by now as the currency continues to defy gravity and traders seeking out swap dividends through short exposure are getting trounced. Despite the chatter of lower rates by the BoE this year as evidence through dovish remarks by members of the committee and poor growth numbers mount, the Pound managed to print some solid gains, with another important test today via the UK CPI figures. The market is pricing a 50/50 chance of lower rates by the BoE by the next meeting in February. The US Dollar, in congruence with its seasonals, retains a bullish outlook after a flattish performance with a slight spell of selling hitting the currency after soft US CPI figures on Tuesday. Similarly, the Canadian Dollar also nudged lower despite it clearly retains a bullish bias at an index level. The Aussie and Yen trade on stand-by, with the overall outlook bullish and bearish respectively, but a reset of the flows will occur today as the market reacts to further details emerging as part of the US-China Phase One trade deal, with the signing ceremony scheduled today. Lastly, the Kiwi trades on a softer footing with the next catalyst, again, based on China trade headlines.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

We find an analogous picture in terms of the top performing currency, with the Swiss Franc stealing the limelight once again. The remaining G8 FX complex, by and large, continues to show volatility shrinking by the day. Out of all the indices analyzed in this report, the only exception to display a weekly volatility above its monthly average is the Swiss Franc, the rest shows the dullest movement for quite some time, with even GBP stuck at an implied volatility that is the lowest since July 2019. In this environment, with equities in the US making marginal new record highs, and the US-China trade deal signing ceremony largely a non-event as no surprises emerged, the Yen continues being promoted as one of the preferred shorts, even if the easy gains playing short the currency, I believe, have already been made, especially considering the macro support it faces at an index level (more on the charts section). The Euro keeps gaining strength with the market now shifting its attention to today’s ECB Minutes, with the focus on the ECB’s framework review, set to start next week, and any potential adjustments to the inflation targets. A speech by ECB’s Lagarde at 10.30pm AED will also command the attention of the market. GBP continues to show stubbornness to accept lower prices despite the soft data as of late (downbeat UK growth, UK inflation lowest in 3 years, BoE member more dovish), which is quite telling. Despite the resilience shown, the market is now pricing a 70% chance of a BoE rate cut on Jan 30th. The North American countries, despite marginal weakness on Wed, are nowhere near violating the evidence that keeps both the USD and CAD in an overall bullish path for the month. Lastly, the AUD and NZD struggled to find demand even if the low vol dynamics are supportive overall.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

The New Zealand Dollar and the Pound were the top performing currencies. The former was boosted by an upbeat ANZ inflation indicator, leading to calls for the RBNZ to cement its neutral bias for the foreseeable future. Too premature to think the language may shift to hawkish though, even if the jump by 0.8% q/q is above the RBNZ target. The Sterling’s rise, in my opinion, has a lot more to do with the slow money re-engaging in weakness as the weekly trend remains bullish, even if reason to turn more bearish are also piling up with the BoE more likely to cut rates in the next few meetings (pricing of a cut has gone to near 70% for Jan 30). The Euro, the Aussie and Yen were the main laggards for the session. It is especially counter-intuitive to have seen the Euro perform so poorly as the ECB revealed a more upbeat tone in its policy minutes, with the outlook for inflation and growth slightly more constructive. The sell-side pressure on the Yen, for a 7th consecutive day, shows that the ‘trend is your friend’ in this market, one that continues to move in opposite lock steps to record equities in the US. The Aussie’s struggle has more to do with impending technicals at an index level, even if the latest Chinese data dump today should provide interim support as upbeat numbers emerged. The Swissy paused its hot rally after reaching a weekly 100% proj target in the index, while the US and Canadian Dollar saw weakness bought up aggressively through the NA session.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

We start a new week with the US Dollar at the forefront of trader’s mind amid the steady demand flows it’s shown through the course of January in line with positive seasonals. The fundamental news out of the US, with a huge 17% jump in housing starts aiding the trend, as together with the US-China phase one trade truce, reaffirms the neutrality of the Fed policies. The Swissy, after meeting its 100% measured move at an index level, has seen buy-side interest petering out as the fast money-type accounts take the foot off the gas pedal. The Canadian Dollar is the third best performing currency this year, piggy-backing the rise in the USD, and opening up a significant gap with the Euro, which follows as the 4th best currency. In the bottom half, I must say that amid very depressed volatility conditions, the outlook is mixed, with only the Japanese Yen displaying the cleanest downtrend. The Aussie, the Kiwi, and the Pound, are all confined in ranges of difference dimensions from an index standpoint, even if the British currency was the most punished in the last 24h following a dismal UK retail sales. Judging by the ebbs and flows seen as of late, the USD and CAD look best positioned to capitalize on the current market conditions, while the JPY and the GBP, with risk-on flows (S&P 500 keeps making record highs) and UK fundamentals deteriorating at a rapid pace, appear to be the most vulnerable currencies this week. Remember though, today’s trading activity is likely to be much more quiet than usual, as US stock and bond markets are closed to commemorate the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday. Later in the week, things will spice up as we get the moneta policy decision by the BOJ, BOC, ECB, Aussie jobs, Canadian/NZ CPI and EZ manuf numbers.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

If it wasn’t enough with volatility shot to pieces in recent times, Forex traders had to navigate even calmer waters though Monday as the US markets (cash equities and bonds) were closed in commemoration of Martin Luther King Day. The Canadian Dollar attracted the most buy-side interest, followed by the US Dollar, in line with the slow money directional bias through this month of January. The Pound gave us some brief spell of volatility through the European morning hours, but the momentum never picked up further steam and the market ended rotating back up recouping all the losses. The Euro, the Yen or the Swissy were a snooze fest, with no action of note ahead of today’s BoJ policy meeting and Thursday’s ECB. Meanwhile, the Oceanic complex (AUD, NZD) moved in lockstep towards the downside, ending as the worst performing currencies

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

In the last 24h of trading activity, the Pound, the Yen, and to a lesser degree the US Dollar, were the best performing currencies. The British currency was mainly driven by a jump in the UK employment figures, even if the positive input has barely budged bond traders, still assigning fairly high chances of a rate cut by the BOE next week (around 70%). The Yen’s strength, as it’s been the case this year, has emanated due to panic-induced dynamics; it was the case when Iran and the US engaged in a tug of retaliatory offenses which never amounted to the worst fears, and sadly, an episode of a virus outbreak in China (coronavirus) was the prelude to another round of Yen buying. Did you notice where the Yen is finding gains from? Today’s technical outlook reveals a relevant snippet of technical information for those aiming to be on top of the market context. The USD buying, plain and simple, follows the underlying buy-side flows dominating since the start of the month. Not favored by today’s ebbs and flows, the Aussie, Kiwi and the Canadian Dollar were all laggars, in a classic move away from commodity-related currencies as the risk-off settled in, a dynamic that was reaffirmed by the sell-side flows that hit US equities as well. Note, one must put this sell into context, as the S&P 500 remains really close to its recent all-time high. Remember, the CAD is likely to attract the most volatility in the next 24h as the BOC policy meeting is due. On Thursday, it will be the time for the ECB to update the market on its latest policy settings. Until then, trading the Euro continues to be a low-key affair as the tight range in the index reflects. Lastly, the Swissy, which remains the star performer this month, keeps the upside capped after reaching its 100% projection target. Don’t underestimate the power of symmetries in Forex!

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

The Pound has been, by a fair margin, the currency paying the most dividends for those with long-side exposure ahead of next week’s BoE policy meeting. Price action, which in the case of the Pound, has been rather constructive this week, goes a long way to decipher the true intentions of the market, diminishing the risk of marrying you to a bias just because the hype as of late it’s been that the BOE may lower rates next week. Well, it turns out, the market had clearly other intentions, aided by the highest quarterly business optimism among UK factories (UK CBI report) since April 2014. The Aussie is another currency flying high after a solid jobs report in Australia even if remains at the very tail of performing currencies in January. Again, such behavior, may have defied logic if one had been fixated in the US-China trade deal as the catalyst for higher prices as opposed to price action and the monitoring of the AUD index, which told us a different story. The Swissy, meanwhile, is a currency that just keeps on giving those those committed to buy the dips in what’s, together with the USD, the top performing currency this month. In stark contrast, the Canadian Dollar was completely annihilated by market forces as the BOC did a 180-degree turnaround on its monetary policy stance, openly recognizing that lower rates are back on the table for the next few months. In response, the CAD saw one-way transit flows. The Euro is the currency to shift the focus towards in the next 24h, as the ECB is up next. As I argue in today’s report, watch out for some type of hawkish surprise by the CB, even if just at the margin. The Yen, amid a mixed-bag of risk dynamics, with US equities and global bonds in stand-by, also portrays choppy price action amid a short-term correction of its bear tendencies. China’s efforts to contain the coronavirus has also contributed to appease market fears even if the situation is still fluid, with the WHO to decide today if the crisis is declared an international emergency. Lastly, the Kiwi is going nowhere fast, with an absence of fundamental drivers as of late.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

The whippy movements in Forex extended on Thursday. The Euro fell miserably amid the lack of hawkish emphasis by the ECB, with the tentative green shoots seen in the Euro area nothing out of the ordinary. The remarks by the ECB statement, later reaffirmed by Lagarde, was an admission that the ECB will be slow to shift its well-anchored dovish bias. An interesting market to trade in the last 24h as volatility certainly did not lack either was the Aussie, initially emboldened by a strong employment report out of Australia, however, since the market is still fixated about an escalation of the corona virus in China and connecting the dots with lower local growth, it weighted on the Aussie later on. As we know, the number one currency to act as a proxy for all things China is the Aussie. While the jobs data was a positive input for the AUD, even to the point of lowering the RBA rate cut odds in February to just 25% from 60%, it clearly isn’t the only focus at present. On the contrary, the NZD has enjoyed strong buy-side flows, with more fuel added to the intraday rally following an upbeat in the NZ CPI q/q figures. This should keep the RBNZ powder dry (no cuts) near term, even if the upside may prove still limited as China’s coronavirus plays out. The volatility in the Yen wasn’t too shabby either, with the currency appreciating strongly amid the sharp falls in global yields. The Canadian Dollar, recently battered, finally reverted its exceedingly oversold conditions, even if the BOC dovish turnaround from Wednesday is the type of development that can act as the onset of a prolonged sell-side campaign as technicals and fundamentals are starting to align in favor of sellers. Lastly, the USD and the CHF traded in a stable fashion, with modest weakness on the latter, even if these currencies have only contributed at the margin to the increase in FX volatility since mid this week.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

The threat of the Corona Virus hitting much harder than thought the Chinese growth prospects, and as a consequence, the global GDP outlook this first semester, is a reality that the markets are starting to decisively account for, as demonstrated by the sharp falls in equities globally or proxies for China such as the Aussie, Kiwi, the Yuan itself, or the appreciation of safe-havens the likes of Gold, the Yen or seeking out protection by buying fixed-income (bonds). Originated in China, the virus is now thought to have infected more than 100,000 people in China, and is now spreading to other countries such as Japan, India, Hong Kong, the US, France, Australia and more. Aside from the BOE policy decision this week (50/50 chance of a rate cut), the virus spreading news is going to dominate the proceedings. Even the FOMC or Aussie CPI may prove to be just small hiccups in volatility as opposed to the movements that the coronavirus developments may produce. The markets are in clear risk-off mode and if the virus continues to get worse, there may be great plays on the horizon this week with a marked improvement in volatility to be expected, even if sadly, it’s for the wrong reasons. Be on high alert as this is one of those weeks when, as traders, there may be a lot of opportunities up for grabs. At this stage late in January, the best performing currencies continue to be the USD, CHF, GBP and the JPY, with the latter appreciating very rapidly as the coronavirus topped the headlines. On the other side of the spectrum, the AUD and NZD are the two stand out losers, with the outlook for the EUR and CAD not looking good at all from an index technical perspective.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

As the coronavirus woes extend, so does the upside in the USD, JPY and CHF. These 3 currencies has expanded the gap versus its main peers in the G8 FX space as market participants take no chances and resort to the safe-haven appeal of classic plays. If you ask me, it is no wonder as the outlook for Chinese growth, and as spillover effect, the global GDP outlook is looking bleaker by the day with more than 50 million people in China on lock-down mode and over 100,00 cases diagnosed in Chin alone. What’s going to be absolutely critical is the rate of reproduction of the disease and whether or not there may be tentative signs that China is able to contain it. While one may take slight comfort from the fact that China seems to be doing all it can, one wonders if it’s too late to mitigate the spreading as it’s thought that more than 5 million Chinese from ground 0 where the virus originated from left the city of Wuhan before the ban on travelling. It definitely looks like the market may be on tenterhooks for another week or two until there is more clarity on the true outreach of this disease. A currency that depicts like no other the worsened outlook towards China near term remains the Aussie and to a lesser extend the Kiwi, taken to the woodshed as the favorite short play to express the dire view on the Chinese economy to start 2020. There is a third camp of currencies (EUR, GBP, CAD) that found rather stable dynamics notwithstanding the pick up in risk aversion. This is important to note, because this is a week with higher than average trading opportunities for the avid trader to capitalize on the increase in volatility that we are seeing in financial markets, so making a distinction of the most one-sided flows is critical to catch the strongest trends at play. This is a healthy improvement in volatility, even if sadly, once again, for the wrong reasons. Remember, while you definitely must be accounting for the FOMC or Aussie CPI this week, make no mistake, there is a thematic overriding it all, and that’s the coronavirus propagation. The markets are in clear risk-off mode as also reflected by the largest one-day fall in the S&P 500 since October.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

The financial markets finally took a bit of a breather after the disproportionate one-sided movements in instruments the likes of the Yen, the Aussie, the Yuan, bonds, gold, equities. The fact that there was no new alarming developments in the number one driver of the market since last week, that is, the coronavirus outbreak, acted on its own right as the trigger to justify what’s seen as a correction very much technical in nature, not yet enjoying the fundamental backing of a complete disregard by market forces to the virus news, far from it. It is still a real possibility that the coronavirus saga keeps getting worse before it gets better. Amid this more sanguine environment, the Yen succumbed to the improved bid tone in risk, as did the allure towards the Swiss Franc, even if both remain top performing currencies in January, alongside a USD that keeps charging higher as the US economic news keep shining. As a result of the recovery in risk appetite, the Aussie and Kiwi moved higher in locksteps. Meanwhile, two currencies also enjoying buy-side flows, even if it may not last (spoiler: watch for shorts) judging by the technical stance conducted include the EUR and CAD. In my objective technical analysis of the G8 FX indices, I make a case as to why you want to be on the alert for these currencies to be, sooner or later, engulfed by renewed sell-side pressure. Lastly, the GBP traded on a soft note as it got hit by news that the U.K. will allow Huawei to build parts of the 5G network, in a move that defies Trump, and potentially the future trade relationships with the US.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

The USD kept advancing further ground up until the point when a dovish tilt by Fed’s Powell on inflation during Wednesday’s FOMC press conference led to a change of heart by the market. The currency ended softer after the remarks by Powell as the market now prices about one and a half cuts by the Fed by the end of 2020 vs 1.2 cuts pre-FOMC. The EUR, which continues its recovery, finds little technical grounds to expect the current run higher to last.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

With the WHO finally declaring the coronavirus (NCoV) a public health emergency alongside news that the US travel advisory just raised the alert level to its highest by advising nationals not to travel to China, the market, understandably, remains on shaky grounds. Note, I am firmly convinced, as I exposed in yesterday’s Youtube livestream, that the NCoV will remain the number one driver for at least another week or two. As a visual reflection, the chart below depicts the performance of G8 FX ever since the coronavirus (NCoV) news broke out. By now, it’s become visibly obvious what currencies have been affected the most. The Yen, the Swissy and the US Dollar, in this order, are unequivocally the main beneficiaries, while the Aussie and the Kiwi have been hit the hardest as the Chinese growth story is about to face some very bleak times in Q1 and Q2, and as a consequence, the market has been rapid to factor that in via the depreciation of the Oceanic currencies as ‘proxies’ for China. The Canadian Dollar, weighted by the prospects of lower rates in Canada and the recent slide in Oil prices as the NCoV also takes its toll on the projected consumption of the black gold. A currency fueled by its own idiosyncratic driver is the Pound, immune to the NCoV fuss, to instead be marked aggressively higher in the last 24h by a less dovish BoE after a 0.75% rate hold with a 7-2 split. Sandwiched in between, we find the Euro, which had an impressive run on Thursday, with further tentative evidence of a recovery in the Eurozone economic data to blame.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

There continues to be no respite to the tightening of financial conditions as depicted by the sharp falls in US equities before the end of business on Friday. The coronavirus-induced risk-off is highly likely to be here to stay for weeks if not months with more research papers indicating that the peak of the disease may still be months away. How it all played out in the currency market was a perfect script of text-book movements to be expected in times of suppressed risk conditions as the prospects of bleak Chinese growth in H1 2020 become an outcome factored-in. So, in forex, the swings were characterized by a surge in the three funding currencies (EUR, JPY, CHF), alongside follow-through demand towards the Pound as the bullish BOE play extended. On the other side of the spectrum, the AUD and the NZD saw another massacre in value, this time also joined by the CAD, which tracked the Oceanic currencies lower in locksteps. The USD, which put on a stellar performance in January in line with seasonals, finally succumbed in what some bank research report appear to attribute to month-end flows redistribution.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>

Quick Take

The market has gone through a short-term relief rally in risk-sensitive instruments. The modest easing of financial conditions as depicted by the rise in US equities or the pause in the bloodbath of global bond yields, has led to a minor recovery in the likes of the Aussie or Kiwi. Interestingly, the bid in the Yen or the US Dollar puts into question this recovery as one that still communicates further trouble ahead, as does the fact that Oil or industrial metals keep losing ground. The Swiss Franc is also holding up its trend quite well as the index reflects. The resilience of the Euro is also quite impressive as buyers piled into Monday’s dip. The Canadian Dollar saw follow through supply with no particular fundamental catalyst, so my read on the fall is predicated on the fact that the CAD technicals remain very fragile. However, the main loser was the Sterling, with sellers in control of price from the open in Asia until the final hours of US. What appears to be behind the latest sell-off in the currency is the anticipation that the negotiations between the EU and the UK on a trade deal may collapse unless either side stops playing ball and starts to provide a substantial number of concessions, which looks unlikely.

READ THE FULL REPORT >>