I like to go deep sea fishing when it’s a full moon, no idea if I should trade at the same time…
I suppose the same can be said of “Fibonacci numbers” - but sometimes things work without anyone being able to show any theoretical reason why they should.
If you give enough monkeys a typewriter then one of them will replicate a Shakespeare novel - it still doesn’t mean that monkeys can write a novel.
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This is true - but would you be able to sleep at night trading a $100k account on a system which makes money now, but a system that also has no theoretical backing or understanding? I know what I’d choose.
Yes, I only fresh water fish, but some strange things, like that and barometric pressure do seem to influence results.
I know the full moon produces either spring, or neap tides (can’t remember which) becuse of the interaction of the gravity fields of the earth and the moon, and it is proven that some species of birds can navigate their migrations by the magnetic fields of the earth. “sunspots” are known to produce all sorts of wierd phenomena on earth from weather cycles (el Nino for example), magetic storms which have been known to knock out power supplies to entire regions of countries (Canada springs to mind).
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It is true that randomness will sometimes produce things like “100 year storms” within about 10 years sometimes - BUT statistically there are literally millions or even billions of “100 year events” and only 1 of these has to happen before people are jumping up and down proclaiming something like “Climate change is man made” - lol
Humans do have a great propensity to see “Patterns” where none exist.
However, that is not to say that some effects on the human psyche will not eventually be shown to have connections to planetary or other “magnetic” influences.
I know a lot of traders believe “Fibs” are very relevant, although equally “etherial” and even Gann recognised some retracement values and extensions very relevant to his work, very similar to “Fibs” although I don’t think he was aware of “Fibonaccis”
I also know that a highly respected trader appeared on Bloomberg TV shortly after the bear market bottom on the DOW c2003 having forecast the exact Day of the bottom some 15 months prevously on the same channel.
His forecast was based on “Something etherial” - and although he would not go further at the time, he did disclose later what it was (in his forum) - That of course could have been sheer chance as well.
[Edit - seemed bl00dy impressive at the time though. ! 
]
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It doesn’t just “seem” ludicrous.
It IS ludicrous. 
Certainly, but those are natural phenomena, and the influence of the moon on them is scientific and in accordance with the laws of physics.
The same isn’t true of its alleged effects on financial markets.
Let’s not confuse natural and artificially constructed worlds, here.
And it is, by many people who study it objectively.
Sometimes.
But Fibonacci numbers aren’t an example of that. They’re nonsense, too. There’s never been anything more than anecdotal evidence arising from heavy selection-bias for those. In objective, independent tests, they’re proven to be no better than randomly drawn lines, and that has been demonstrated. Repeatedly. 
Can you please supply a link to any of these demonstrated independent tests that support this?
While I’m not a subscriber to “Delta Phenomena”, a LOT of FX and Com. traders utilise Fib Charts in various retracement, fan and expansion guises…
Below is a link to 400+ pages of successful Fibonacci systems demonstrated over 8 years…
https://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=50767
And while I agree that it could be seen fitting an Indicator to data… Fibonacci numbered levels become support or resistance in too many instances to be just “nonsense”…
Bollinger, Chaikin, Donchian and Keltner Channels must be “randomly drawn nonsense” as well.
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Possibly L-C but take for example the human female menstrual cycle (28 days). It has been objectively observed (and I can look it up if I have to) - That if you put a number of women in close proximity, their “cycles” will adjust to coincide with that of the “alpha female” in fairly short order.
Quite how that would be a “natural phenomenon” “provable by the laws of physics” I have no idea.
Thousands of female turtles accessing the same beach on the same single night of the year in order to lay their eggs ? - How is that in accordance with the laws of physics ?
In my country, Lapwings will have a full clutch of fresh eggs on 5th April, as will Rooks. Carrion Crows , Magpies and Jackdaws will have a full clutch of fresh eggs on 20th April - etc etc.
Do not underestimate the compulsion of “Evolution”
I was going to mention “Bollinger Bands”, but decided that as they represent a certain number of standard deviations from the statistical mean, There could have been some “scientific proof” of that being valid
You are quite right tho’
2 SD’s will often turn the action back towards the mean whilst 3 SD’s will almost invariably do so !
Why ?
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I cant buy into the astrology staff am only 20 years old got a whole lifetime to do some digging. My only question is why you guys would even block me out of my own topic…funny thing is that you are all experienced traders.
Ok Patrick, where would you like the thread to go now ?
I dont have an idea but if you would quit being cocky just because am a newbie maybe you would have nothing to gain but i would really appreciate it.
Again, this is natural (biological/chemical/physical) not artificial like the markets.
I expect that’s exactly what Charles means by “anecdotal evidence with heavy selection bias” or whatever he said.
That’s a straw man argument, and it’s not applicable here.
Nobody said that.
Those things measure what they measure and display them.
Fib levels don’t “measure” anything. They calculate something artificially, according to the so-called “golden ratio”. Hopeless.
All the indepedent US university studies I’ve been shown on Fib levels have failed to find any more significance for them than for random lines, TWB, so I strongly disagree with you. This is well known. Just a myth of “retail traders”, I’m afraid, and reinforced by people selling EA’s/books/courses/info. Nothing real there at all.
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Be careful what you assume about people posting here, Patrick. Some of them may have no profitable or professional experience at all, but just like the sound of their own voices. There’s some good information in this forum, from a handful of people with longstanding successful/pro experience, but it’s a tiny minority of what you read here. There’s a lot of nonsense too (as in most forums).
Most (nearly all) retail forex traders are unsuccessful, and they nearly all get their “information” from each other. As a result they continue to believe what they’ve always believed, and some of it’s rubbish.
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What…?
They don’t have to measure anything…they are used by enough traders to generate support and resistance or congestion levels on charts…
More jaw flapping philosophical waffle…" exactly what Charles means… or whatever he said"… at least you boys continue to amuse me…
For every fib example you can show me that works I can show you two that don’t - just stirring the pot here of course
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For every MA strategy, I can show you two crosses that generate losses to the one cross that profits… can be said about every Indicator in use out there…semantics
LOL
True for me also, Lukas (and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of them are even the same ones), but unlike you I’ve learned that it isn’t worth replying to Trendswithbenefits when he’s in trolley mode.
“They are used by enough traders to generate support and resistance” is a joke. He doesn’t even understand that retail forex traders using them aren’t in the interbank market and can have no effect at all on it for that reason, let alone that their volume is insignificant anyway, that they’re using hundreds of different kinds of charts, and countless other reasons. Ridiculous.
You can’t even begin to discuss it intelligently, on those terms.
Honestly, I wouldn’t try.
I just wish we had an “ignore” function.
Here’s a good page on Fibonacci from Lock Haven University. Not directly related to trading but still an interesting, entertaining and (to some people) educational read:-
