As for the trades in your example I would agree with if the win percentages are good and the risk:reward ratio holds up thatâs a good deal. The other issue is the time involved for such trades to come to fruition. These large moves between SR lines can often be several days or even a week or more.
Yes, of course. It depends on the lot size. For me, determining my trade-lot-size is straight forward. I determine my stop loss in pips and divide that number into my 2% figure. That determines my lot size. For a $5000 account, a 2% risk would be $100. A 100 pip stop-loss-risk would allow me to trade 1 mini-lot.
I agree, TraderAlan, that a risk/reward ratio of equal to or greater than 100/70 (i.e. over 1:1) is a decent one, though not necessarily an optimal one to shoot for. HmmmâŠI wonder what an optimal-reasonable R/R might be. Iâve heard anything from 2:1 to 3:1 but, in my limited experience, those are hard to come by.
And, as you say, the related and important issues must include a consideration of the win/loss ratio - which most demo trading does not take into account.
Itâll be good to see Tymen return. Iâm sure he will be addressing some - if not all - of these issues.
I goofed again by not being careful and editing my posts. My numbers in the previous post should have been characterized as reward/risk rather than risk/reward.
I confirm good long trade on Gy yesterday but all my other pairs are losers, I had work with support and resistance as the strategy and look in H1 for better entries, maybe I miss or didnât understand something
This is current USD/JPY. I entered based on the CBL @ 93.56. My TP1 is way below yours at 92.06 so I put a 20 pip trail on it. Right now Iâm up 20 pips. I had a 120 pip gainer Tuesday but Iâve had a couple of losers too. Iâm having a hard time finding qualified entries also. Guess this is where patience comes in. Let the market come to youâŠdonât try and manufacture a trade. This is a lesson I am learning. BTW all my trades are in DEMO. Have not learnt enough yet to spend my hard earned$$$:o:o
Where you entered was a confused area. There was a lot of activity, and an lack of direction until after it stopped you out. My thoughts are, if you have to dig for a CBL, itâs probably not worth entering the trade.
Look at the clear clean lines price made on unrepipantâs charts.
No guesswork there at all.
The E/U suffers the same lack of a clear cut direction change, or clean candles to mark your CBL on.
The AU/CA was a victim of a direction change altogether.
Those two steep bumps up prior to your entry would have either kept me out of the trade altogether, or had me looking to buy instead.
Hard to say on that one. Hindsight is always easier;)
Patience is key. Instead of looking at so many choices, why donât you whittle it down to just a couple?
Donât take every possible entry, instead look for the ones that you feel are the most valid.
Here is current AUD/USD. On right is daily approaching what I believe to be a significant resistance area as it has hit it 3 times in the last 6-8 months. On the left is 1h with CBL entry. I just spotted this so I would have already been in the trade (4th candle from most recent) but since itâs the same price I may give it a go. Any thoughts or comments are much appreciated.
Thanks for posting this. gives us a chance to discuss potential trades in real time.
I would be leary of going short at this point. Yes, you have a CBL (mine is 2 pips lower based on the same candles. Not unusual 'cuz we are probably using different brokers). However just a few candles earlier we have at least 5 candles which penetrated your/my currently drawn CBL lines but did not follow through. What is there in the current setup that would lead you/me to believe that this time it is going to turn out differently?
My conclusion: stand aside until I get a close below about .9245.
Iâm what you would call something of a safety-baby, but I would actually prefer to wait until there is a test of the support line (which Iâm sure there will be), and then I would draw my CBL Lines and make an entry when it bounces off of it - but to each his own.
Yes. On numerous occasions Tymen has made it a point to tell us this is incomplete as of yet:)
But even knowing that, price action will tell you a lot about what is going on. Those close candles that donât really take a direction are always a reason for me to stay out of the market.
Even the best strategies fail when the timing of entry is not right. Trying to shoehorn a trade into an undecided market will generally yield a surprise. Usually not a good one.
Sticking to just a few pairs, making sure your s/r lines are intact, and keeping an eye on the situation will help you make better decisions:)
I actually did not take this tradeâŠyet. I agree with you Trizzle, based on my limited knowledge so far I would probably wait to see more price action around the resistance. Just trying to stir up some conversation while Tyman is away and we learn more. I feel like Iâm getting the hang of spotting potential trades and good practice with drawing S/R areas.
On the other hand, in Step 3 of his summary, Tymen says to being constructing CBLs ââŠwhen the price action starts to approach an SR line.â
Iâd like to have some clarification on the meaning of âstarts to approach.â Is this a reference to the very beginning of a (potential) turn around - not likely - or does it mean something like âwhen the PA is within a few pips of an SR lineâ or something elseâŠ?
Obviously, if the PA penetrates an SR line it had to approach it first. And, as we have all seen, PA can reverse before or after it hits an SR line.
Iâm all for starting to draw CBLs as soon as possible, though not necesarily ready to act on a CBL penetration unless other factors also support taking a position.
Maybe those Big Boy Banker Dogs that Tymen mentioned earlier who have been tugging on the towel have wised up and know better when and where to tug to take more of our money!
Nah, I am sure Tymen has some magic ingredients to add to the receipe to make things taste just right.