Analysis: Long-term downtrend since 03/2009. Intermediate-term downtrend since 6/04/2012. Short-term uptrend (likely retracement) since 9/14/2012. Price is presently at around 50% retracement (and support levels)
Action: Looking for (1) short-term uptrend (likely retracement) to reverse, placing a Sell Stop (1+ pip below the low) if price eventually closes below the 38.2% retracement (and resistance) levels around 0.9950, or (2) uptrend to continue (possible reversal), placing a Buy Stop (1+ pip above the high) if price closes above the 61.8% retracement (and resistance) levels around 1.0135.
Analysis: Long-term uptrend since 7/25/2012. Intermediate-term uptrend since 1/24/2013. Short-term downtrend (likely retracement) since 2/06/2013.
Action: Looking for (1) short-term downtrend (likely retracement) to reverse, placing a Buy Stop (1+ pip above the high) if price eventually closes above the 0% retracement (and resistance) levels around 127.70, or (2) downtrend to continue (possible reversal), placing a Sell Stop (1+ pip below the low) if price closes below the 61.8% retracement (and support) levels around 121.10.
Analysis: Long-term uptrend since 7/23/2012. Intermediate-term uptrend since 1/04/2013. Short-term downtrend (likely retracement) since 2/04/2013.
Action: Looking for (1) short-term downtrend (likely retracement) to reverse, placing a Buy Stop (1+ pip above the high) if price eventually closes above the 0% retracement (and resistance) levels around 0.8715, or (2) downtrend to continue (possible reversal), placing a Sell Stop (1+ pip below the low) if price closes below the 61.8% retracement (and resistance) levels around 0.8325.
Analysis: Long-term downtrend since 01/2009. Intermediate-term uptrend since 8/13/2012. Short-term uptrend (with recent pullback past couple days) since 1/10/2013.
Action: Looking for (1) short-term uptrend to continue, placing a Buy Stop (1+ pip above the high) if price eventually closes above the 0% retracement (and resistance) levels around 1.3190, or (2) downtrend to continue (possible reversal), placing a Sell Stop (1+ pip below the low) if price closes below the 61.8% retracement (and resistance) levels around 1.2675.
Analysis: Intermediate-term uptrend since 1/10/2013. Short-term downtrend since 1/28/2013. Price closed below 61.8% retracement for the first time on Friday.
Action: SELL! Looking for short-term downtrend to continue, placing an immediate Sell Stop (or Market order if price already lower) upon market open at 1.2253 or less (1+ pip below the low of 1.2254).
Solid analysis. I differ on some of them, but that’s to be expected. Price Analysis is subjective and I do lose half of my trades. The ones I get wrong, you could very well be right on the money.
If you could, add some photos. That could help others better see what you are looking at. I’m not suggesting for each one, as I certainly don’t do that, but at least one could certainly add more clarity.
I’m guessing you are either a public accountant or some form of internal auditor by current profession.
One question, I do have. How do you determine your bias?
Great posts. Waiting for coffee to kick in after staying up to watch ‘Homeland.’ Are you counting this current retracement as one of the four? I kind of agree with you about the Euro taking out 1.38 somewhat soon, but given the direction price is moving in, I think we could see price take out 1.32 on the downside first, where those three highs (?, 1, 2 on my chart) offer interesting support and are at a retracement of 79%. Am I counting these four moves correctly?
I just found out your thread. I didn’t know you had one until today :). I just glance at your introduction and it sound pretty straight forward and something that I would be interested in. I will be watching and learning at the same time. I hope you don’t mind :).
Hi MG,
Very good thread you have started, thank you for your insight. But I am unclear about something. In post 221, Richard asked if you scale in and/or out of positions going the right or wrong way. Your answer to him was no, however, in post 24 it sound like you do scale in and out. Would you mind clarifying please? I’m just trying to understand your methodology which looks very sound.
I don’t add to any individual pair once a trade is underway. However, I may add to a position in USD by trading other pairs.
For instance, when the yen is declining, I don’t focus on it’s decline on just one pair, but I spread the risk out by taking on more than one pair that has a declining yen.
The results I have posted on the first post of this thread are my results year to date. While they are ridiculously impressive at this point, it’s not likely I would end the year at 600% gains. My max drawdown is 18%, so while great gains can be made, losses happen along the way as well. This is long term, so if you stumble into this during a downturn, just sit tight. It will be okay.
I currently have 8 open positions. The end of last week, a lot of stops were hit. I generally hold over a dozen trades, and close to 20. I can’t predict which direction the market will take, but I’m sure I’ll back up to my average portfolio size soon enough.
I’m simplistic terms, I look for reactions around support and resistance. If I spy something, I will place a limit order in the direction I best see profitability. The main tools I use is horizontal lines and fibs, and by now I can really just eye it up without the need to plot it on the chart.
I make all my trading decisions based on the close of the NY trading session. However, that’s what is best for me. Pick a time that works best for you. While our charts won’t always look identical, price action patterns show all the same. It doesn’t mean we will always see eye to eye on every trade, but that’s okay. If the move is big enough, we will all be in for the ride.
Thanks, MasterGunner. Good idea to add charts – I’ll go back and attempt that next. [I’d thought about adding charts for clarity after having first achieved my initial objective of analyzing all 28 pairs today – and seeing how long it took – before the markets open. Unfortunately, something came up and I wasn’t able to continue and finish.]
I was surprised and heartened to discover, in just this initial 11-pair partial pass-through, that my analysis time for each chart declined from maybe 30 minutes/pair to start down to 5-10 minutes/pair, which I expect – as you’ve noted – to decline even further with time and experience.
[BTW, I’m a retired software Systems Analyst/Developer who’s often thought, in hindsight, that I’d have made an even better Accountant/Auditor – so your guess is rather humorous and perceptive. I’m now a Professional Futures Day Trader, finally having become consistently profitable after blowing out 5 accounts in 5 years.]
To answer your (excellent) question: I presently determine my bias in this manner (and am open to being persuaded differently) –
. if (a) the pair has been range-trading for some time (over the “intermediate-term”), my bias is the direction of the trend prior to entering that range (usually the “long-term” trend) – which often is further indicated by way of a confirming ascending/descending triangle price pattern likely to breakout to that same up/down side, respectively; otherwise,
. if (b) the pair is clearly trending in the “intermediate-term” (the definition of this period itself being somewhat subjective; it’s based on the pair and price action over some subjective time period that “stands out” in-between the “long-” and “short-terms”), I place most – if not all – weight for bias on this direction. However, if the “short-term” trend is a powerful move that counters the intermediate, as with my analysis of EURCHF, I’ll defer to the short-term direction. [I think of reversals as being rare, and trends/retracements as the norm.]
I hope that’s somewhat clear …
I, and others no doubt, would be interested to know the same: how, in fact, do you determine your bias?
My bias is generally from the overall look of the trend. I look at the overall makeup of the candlesticks and see what direction looks to be driving. I will not trade in the opposite direction of my bias.
The tricky part is when my bias begins to change. At times I won’t have any bias at all, because price looks completely without direction.
EURUSD right now is sitting on the verge of me rendering it a bear. The price keeps charging down, and I believe it closed well past the Golden Ratio.
If it goes down Monday, it’s for me a bear and I will likely enter.
It if goes up, I won’t be so quick to think it’s quite a bull yet until it shows some serious strength climbing back up.
Good analysis… I am with you on EUR/USD and AUD/USD looking for bullish this week.