Not really; I’m using part of 3 ducks, a “mental” SMA to help me define my bias, but it is almost pure daily PA with S/R, trend lines and channels.
My view of the market for today! Yesterday I tried to post a similar post but for some reason BP failed to put my post and I am too lazy to write it again!.
Note: if I don’t place info about a pair, that means that my current bias is the same as my current trade.
[ul]
[li]EURUSD My Bias is long. It closed above my entry point so I placed a buy. I want to see what happens the next 2 days to know if I move my stop or not.[/li][li]GBPAUD My bias is short. It is on a support, so I’m going to look carefully for any hesitation, if I find something, I’m moving my stop to a nearer place.[/li][li]EURAUD My bias is short, but I failed two of my past attempts to short it. Now I shorted it at a better point based on what I know of PA and harmonic patterns. Let see what happens. A good thing is that GBPAUD is also short in my bias, so that reinforces my short view of EURAUD[/li][li]EURJPY My bias is long, but I’m starting looking some hesitation at the trend line. If today the PA tells me that there is strong resistance, I’m going to lock profits with my stop. This should be reflected on various other yen pairs. The fact that EURAUD is short reinforces this, but EURUSD is long, so this is a little confusing.[/li][li]EURGBP My bias is long, but I need it to close above 0.8582 to enter a buy trade.[/li][li]USDJPY My bias is long, but as on EURJPY I’m looking some hesitation. But on it the resistance is the middle of my uptrend channel, so I think it could signal a continuation of the uptrend.[/li][li]USDCAD My bias is short, but it is hesitating. Nevertheless it has no broke my support point, and the bear candles are not enough for make me change my bias.[/li][li]GBPUSD My bias is long (mild long). I want to see a close above 1.5440 to place a buy.[/li][li]AUDNZD My bias is short. I’m viewing some hesitation but still nothing to change my mind.[/li][li]EURNZD My bias is short, but I want to see a close below 1.5326 before placing a sell. The fact that my GBPNZD trade is short and it is working reinforces my view on EURNZD.[/li][li]GBPNZD My bias is mildly short. I’m looking some type of support that needs to be broken. Still it is well contained inside my downtrend channel, so no signal to move my stop yet.[/li][li]EURCHF My bias on it is “remove that garbage from my MT4!” So no signal, no trade[/li][li]CADCHF My bias is short, but I’m viewing some hesitation. Still nothing to change my bias.[/li][li]AUDUSD is in big range. No trade on it.[/li][li]CADJPY My bias is long, but as on other jpy pairs, I’m looking some resistance. It seems to be at the 100 % fibo extension.[/li][li]CHFJPY My bias is long, but I’m looking the same as other yen pairs.[/li][li]AUDCHF No bias. It could be long or short, but not decided yet.[/li][li]AUDJPY My bias is long, but I think it is going to make a retracement based on the PA and the current price is above my channel’s high. Still, I need to see some confirmation before moving my stop.[/li][li]GBPCAD My bias is short, but I want to see a close below 1.5664 to place a sell.[/li][li]GBPCHF My bias is short, but for the short term I think it is going to go up. I’m going to reduce my stop if I see one big enough green candle.[/li][li]GBPJPY Bias long, but the same as all the yen pairs. This one looks more extreme than others but still not enough to do anything.[/li][li]NZDUSD My bias was short, but now it is undefined, so no trade on it.[/li][li]EURCAD Bias long, but maybe a short term retracement. Need to see today’s candle close…[/li][li]NZDJPY Bias long, same issue as others yen pairs[/li][li]NZDCHF Bias long, some hesitation on the middle of my channel, but hey! only a couple of hours before placing my trade! I need to wait more time to see something on it.[/li][/ul]
Hi All,
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Thanks,
Jess
Nice work medisoft, I wish I had held my nerve with the yen pairs, I had positions open from 1.1920 to 1.2060 and was around 200-300pips up on each position and I closed them all at 1.2220 :S, a real shame knowing what it went on to, how do you and others manage to stay in your profitable trades for so long? I’m profiting each week around 500pips average but still I find im closing them out way too early, I seem to absorb and can handle losing trades for well over a week, but as soon as im in profit im eager to close.
Why don’t you close 60% and hold the remaining 40% or whatever proportions you feel comfortable with?
Try manually walking up a SL instead of just closing them outright. The SL, of course, needs to leave the trade room to move throughout the day though.
Well, I’m trying to do a daily analysis just after market close (on my broker). I need to do the analysis to decide what to do on every pair/trade, so why not share my own analysis. Note that i’m not veteran, nor very good trader. I’m only trying to profit from markets as you 
This is my analysis. As previous reports, if I don’t place a pair, is because I don’t have anything to say and only waiting to appreciate my trade.
[ul]
[li]EURUSD. Long bias, but showing a likely reversal. I’m moving my stop 10 pips below the previous day candle.[/li][li]USDCHF. Short bias, but showing a likely reversal. I’m moving my stop the same way as EURUSD[/li][li]AUDNZD Short bias, but it is showing support. I want to see a close below previous 2 bars low to feel confident that it will continue the short trend, no action.[/li][li]CADCHF Short bias, but showing strong support. Moving my stop to above the high of 2 days. This locked +110 pips.[/li][li]AUDCHF Long bias. Showing 3 green bars in a row. I’m placing a buy order just above previous day high.[/li][li]GBPCHF Short bias, but current price action is shorterm up. IL’m moving my stop to protect some profits, about +17 pips.[/li][li]NZDUSD Changes my bias to long. I’m waiting for a retracement to entry long.[/li][li]EURCAD Bias long, but showing some hesitation. Moving my stop nearer. +98 pips locked[/li][/ul]
In this case I was hanging onto the notion that it was a price variance due to the Cypress crisis and that price had not changed it’s bias. I had changed to using the daily timeframe as my currency strength/bias setting and it kept saying my bias was valid. If I had stayed with my 4hr setting I probably would have let the losers go a lot sooner.
I had to test the theory but if it was real money it would have been very difficult for me, if not impossible, to have hung on like that. I was going to keep using the daily setting to find out if the Cypress crisis was a one-off variant, but then it seems there’s always a “crisis” of some sort so why torture myself. I’m back to using the 4hr setting for my bias/currency strength analysis on the daily.
I too hang on to losing trades way longer than winning ones…I guess it’s human nature. What I’ve been trying to do is condition myself by trying to hold on to wining trades a little longer each time as well as put a stop in when it reaches around 100 pips to at least break even. I can’t partially close them right now cuz I’m at the lowest position size available.
Sounds like you’re doing quite well regardless
I think that’s is the reason that MG99 says not to close manually any trade, but let your stop close it, and place your stop once you have enough REASONS to think that the trade could go against you.
For me a REASON is price action with enough failures to continue the main trend.
Same for me. The trades that I did finally let go were closed due to stop I placed under a support (or above resistance) area. The others that didn’t hit their stop managed to continue in my favor…like the yen pairs which took a day to come back into profit after lounging in loss land for a month…lol…(can laugh at it now 
)
Thanks for the replies for that, I shall give that a go next week
Hi all
I started to try this methodology 2 days ago after reading the whole Thread :o
Currently I am up with a floating profit of 276 pips.
Hi! fellow traders I’m going to post my analysis for today!
As previous posts, if I don’t say anything on a pair is that I think it is still in sync with my original idea!
[ul]
[li]EURUSD Bias long, and it seems to be correct. Yesterday I moved my stop, but it was not hit and the pair is running my way[/li][li]GBPAUD Bias short, waiting for today’s close to see if it continue the down trend or it makes a new close high.[/li][li]EURAUD Bias short, the same as GBPAUD[/li][li]EURJPY Bias long, Some signs of weakening, but not enough to do anything. Also, because EURUSD is uptrend, I expect EURJPY to be uptrend also. If i see a close above my up trend line I will feel confident that the trend is going to continue strong. The previous day was almost a doji, or a spinner top. I then think that it is right moment to move my stop 10 pips below it.[/li][li]EURGBP Bias long, still waiting for my entry[/li][li]USDJPY Bias long, showing some resistance at 100.00 I want to see a close below that point to feel sure about my current bias. If it closes below 99 I’m going to move my stop.[/li][li]USDCAD Too many red bars for me, I’m moving my stop 10 pips below previous day low.[/li][li]USDCHF bias short, in a support, let’s see what it does in the next couple days[/li][li]GBPUSD bias long, waiting for my entry[/li][li]EURNZD bias short, but last pinbar on a support is telling me to move my stop 10 pips above the previous day high.[/li][li]GBPNZD almost same signal as EURNZD, but don’t see any type of support there, and my MT4 is reporting low volume, so I think I’m not taking any action on it.[/li][li]NZDCAD bias long, but last pinbar on my trend line and uptrend channels says me “time to book profits!” so I’m moving my stop below previous day low just in case it makes a retracement. It locks about +130 pips there.[/li][li]CADCHF bias short. Last trade was closed by the stop with +109 pips. Now I want to see a close below 0.9156 to place a new short[/li][li]CADJPY, CHFJPY bias long, but some hesitation on going up. Today’s close will dictate if I move my stop or not to lock profits.[/li][li]AUDCAD bias long, but I see what could be called “double top” I think I’m going to lock some profits or move my stop to BE just in case this is a real double top.[/li][li]AUDCHF bias long maybe a resistance there. But not enough to make me change my mind.[/li][li]AUDJPY bias long, but a very defined doji there, well above my upper channel line, so I’m locking profits 10 pips below the doji’s low. This locks about +636 pips[/li][li]GBPCAD bias short, still waiting for my entry[/li][li]GBPCHF bias short, but my last trade was closed by the stop with +17 pips. It is pretty near to change my bias to neutral, so I’m not placing any trade on it.[/li][li]GBPJPY bias long, as all the yen pairs, it is showing some hesitation. Previous bar was some type of “spinner top”, so I think is a good idea to move my stop to lock some profits just in case. It is well above my original uptrend channel, but I just drawn a new uptrend channel that better covers the move of the price in recent months. Also on that channel the price is almost on the upper trend line, so it seems to be a good idea to move my stop to lock some profits. This locks +178 pips.[/li][li]NZDUSD bias long, but it is on the top of my channel, so I’m doing nothing. It just made what I call a “yikes” bar (i get the name from a book of price action trading), that is a type of pinbar but with big body. I’m waiting for it to retrace at least to the 38.2 % and show signs of continuation before placing anything there.[/li][li]EURCAD bias long, I moved my stop yesterday, and it has not been hit. I see enough signals of continuation on it. I want to see a close above 1.3320 to be sure that it will continue the uptrend.[/li][li]NZDJPY bias long, and as other yen pairs, I see it well above my high of the uptrend channel. I can’t see any other possible channel or trend line so I think it can reverse soon. But because I’m trying to “trade what I see”, I’m not doing anything because it has not enough signals for a trend reversal.[/li][li]NZDCHF bias long, last bar is a yikes but with big body (not buddy hehehe) with the high barely crossing my up trend line. The current price is far enough from that line, so I’m doing nothing.[/li][li]AUDUSD no bias, or neutral bias.[/li][/ul]
You know? I’m feeling just as a pro placing my analysis here, with daily pictures of my trades. It is comforting and makes me feel good. I think this is what in all places say to newbies, to keep a log of your trades.
I had never did it before this way, I was too focused on trading that I forget logging my trades. This is maybe the worst mistake, just below the first mistake I did: trade without knowing anything hhehehehe.
I feel so good that I think I’m going to continue doing it this way. Do you mind if I “spam” this thread with my analysis? or do it on my own trade?
Just make sure you post your losers too…and how they made you feel…don’t want anyone thinking we are just a bunch of “thrill seekers” bragging about our wins without giving respect to the losses
I think you should start moving up your S/L… specially in the trades where you are already positive over 400 pips… What do you think?
I moved some of my stops, the ones that I see a reason that signs a weakening of the trend. I locked about 1000 pips on all the trades I moved the stop.
This is my analysis for today.
As you can see, there are a lot less trades open. This are my thoughts and results for the closed trades
[ul]
[li]EURUSD Bias long, but had some hesitation and moved my stop. It was touched on a spike down. Exited with -43.9 pips[/li][li]GBPAUD Bias short, nice doji formed just at my upper trend line, I think that could be great continuation signal.[/li][li]EURAUD Bias short. Some green candles, but they are not breaking my high, so I continue in[/li][li]EURJPY Bias long, I saw some hesitation, with adoji on my upper trend line, so I moved my stop yesterday. Today it was closed by the stop with +322.6 pips[/li][li]GBPUSD Bias long. is pretty near my entry point, but has not managed to break the resistance. Will wait a little more to see if it is still a good long.[/li][li]AUDNZD Bias short. I see an inside candle that could signal stop of the trend. I’m going to move my stop on market opening on Sunday (maybe Monday, I can’t trade on Sundays). Nevertheless I see still good reasons to continue down.[/li][li]EURNZD Bias (mild) Short. I saw yesterday a pinbar that was rejected by a support, so I moved my stop. It was hit today with a -13.5 pip loss. I don’t feel I’m going to put a new trade there until I see another good reason.[/li][li]GBPNZD Bias short. I see a continuation pattern that tells me it is still good short, and that maybe make think about placing a trade on EURNZD with less confirmations.[/li][li]NZDCAD Bias long, in retracement zone. Yesterday I saw a nice pinbar just on my upper trend line that trigger me to move my stop. It was hit today and I was stopped out with +126.6 pips[/li][li]CADJPY,CHFJPY Bias long. I’m seeing a nice retracement on it. I think it has still potential to go up, but depending on what I see next, I’m going to move my stop to lock profits on it.[/li][li]AUDCAD Bias undefined. Yesterday I saw what it seems to be a double top. Based on that I moved my stop and it was hit today with a +2.6 pip profit[/li][li]AUDCHF Bias (mild) long. I see some reasons to think that my trade is wrong, but I need another candle to confirm that. Current candle closed just at the 38.2 % level, so I’m going to wait a little more.[/li][li]AUDJPY Bias long. Yesterday I saw a doji outside my channel, so I locked profits there. Today the stop was activated with a +634.8 pips profit.[/li][li]GBPJPY Bias long. Yesterday I locked some profits there because it was just at my upper trend line. It was closed today for +174.7 pips[/li][li]EURCAD Bias long. Yesterday I moved my stop because I saw some red candles. The stop was not hit and with current candle it formed a bull continuation pattern. I expect a break@close above 1.3300 to know for sure that it is going to continue the uptrend. This could be a good entry point with small stop and good enough target.[/li][/ul]
All the pairs that were closed by stop will require me to show something to make me think that it will continue, specially on yen pairs.
Have a nice weekend!
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I agree. I’m sure there are some people struggling to succeed with this and I want to hear from them. This methodology has enough potential to help people pull consistent profits and I would like the opportunity to see what someone is doing that results in negative results.