Am going through my pairs, and am seeing that AUD/CAD looks interesting for a short. Market structure down on the daily, after an interesting Fib resistance point was hit on the weekly. Possible swing high on the weekly from the week prior to last. MG or anyone agree that shorting the AUD versus the CAD is an interesting possibility this week. Based on the daily, I’m guessing that MG went short on this pair this past week. Am I looking at this correctly?
As you could probably guess, I dismiss COT reports. My interest is purely in price action. Whatever decision that is ultimately rendered will reflect in price movement.
I try to not focus on what could be, but rather what is happening.
My overall bias last week was still bullish. That last swing up was pretty solid and it made me think this downward movement might be a retracement. However, if on Monday it still does down, I’m sure it will fill my order to short the pair.
If it rises, I’m going to give it some time before entering a long position.
Thanks for the additional input sstrnod! BD
Apologies, I did not mean to confuse anyone regarding the major pairs. I was thinking of the pairs that make up the USDX.
No problem…
Hello MG
I am a big fan of price action trading and mostly trade weekly/daily time frame. I like your style and explanations to your analysis. Couple if questions
- Do you use ema/sma for dynamic sense of s/r?
- Do you only trade the larger term trend? As in woild you consider trading short term daily corrections on a large term weekly trend?
Thanks
Pratik
My charts remain naked. I personally don’t see the need for any indicators.
I only look at the daily charts, so if I ever trade a short term trend in relation to the weekly chart, it would be purely from coincidence.
I probably should have Asked on your thread rather than ICT’s, but could I ask which pair you took profit on. I was bullish on the dollar going on to today based in Friday’s bullish pin bar in USDX.
I replied there as well. I closed out EURNZD when it hit my stop.
just finished reading the whole thread, looking forward to see what you’ll write
have a week full with pips everybody
Is there a day of the week or specific session that you find yourself getting into trades most often. I looked at 20 of the pairs yesterday and saw a couple of things I liked but held off.
I never really tracked it. If I were to guess it seems like most trades get in at the end of the week. I’ll look tonight at my entries and go from there.
Every day I’m generally placing five orders, but some trades don’t get hit, and some are just entering atop losses.
Which ones did you like? I can have a look and render my assessment.
MG:
In the past, I’ve always been an intraday guy. Just after starting to follow this thread, I’ve started to look longer-term. I took a trade last night looking at the long-term really for the first time. I’d like to get your thoughts, if possible as it’s started to go negative at the start. I went long on USD/JPY as its had a strong trend up all last week, broke through previous resistance around 91.75 which I believe may turn into support if it continues to fall that far, but after looking back 3 years on the daily, I see room up above 94.00 and possibly to 95.00. How bad have I screwed this one up? If you do agree with that thought, what kind of timeframe do you anticipate that type of move taking? Thanks!
I’m currently long, up 160 pips so far.
Where it is right now, my bias is still long. However it does look like it might be retracing. But looking, at the current uptrend, every few days of increase it dips for two or three candles before making its way back up. I can’t forsee the future, so this may very well be the end of the trend. But so far, I’m staying in. I will let you know, if my stance changes.
I do urge you to focus on your own assessment and decide what’s best for your portfolio. Make sure your risk is appropriate as well. One trade should not hurt you at all either financially or mentally.
Awesome MG, thanks. Out of curiosity, did you envision the readers posting charts with trade ideas etc… I have not done a lot of that on BP, but I am planning to get myself up to speed with posting charts. If you want the thread to go in that direction I’d be happy to share thoughts and ask for feedback. So scanning through my notes, here are a couple of things I wrote down:
1- CAD/CHF: Momentum on the daily is bearish. Once .9025 support is taken out, it seems that there is room to run down to .8940 or lower. I’d think there could be a retracement up first (with the low forming on Fridays pinbar) above 92, but there is lots of room for this bullish retracement (200 pips between 38% and 78%) for me to look for sell signals
2- EUR/NZD: I think it’s bullish with potential resistance from a trend line on the daily. Looking at a fib for a buy of the last leg, the 70% retracement is at 1.5930, which was also an interesting support point last year - spot on for the 12/2/2012 candle. SO I’m thinking about going long someplace around or below 1.59301.5950.
3-EUR/USD: Is bullish, and I think we could see 1.38 taken out. I’d be looking to get in around 1.3450 (after this current retracement.)
4-GBP/USD: I’d be looking for Cable to show me it’s ready to start moving back up with buy signals at 1.56
I just re-read my notes here, and am wondering if I’m too focused on figuring out what price is going to do, rather than letting it show me what it’s doing.
I have more, but I got home from work late tonight. I think it’s great that you’re looking to give feedback on trade ideas.
I agree that from my perspective you’re dictating too much on what it might do and not focusing more on what it is doing. I take this one day at a time. If I can’t see making a move today, it’s not worth any further analysis and I move on to the next trade.
CADCHF is bearish and I’m up 113 pips with it. It’s moving up now, but it’s going to be running into resistance shortly, so tomorrow i will see how it ends up.
EURNZD, my bias is bullish, but I would not reenter unless it made its way back up. Today’s candle, while bearish, shows some indecisiveness. We will see how tomorrow ends up.
I have a strong bearish bias for GBPUSD. That last down candle was a whopper. People were quick to pull their gains from the drop I would suspect. While the candle went up, I am still staying short. I’m negative 67 pips at the moment.
My overall bias for EURUSD is bullish. I literally missed getting in this one. I wrote down the trade and never entered it. But assuming I was in, I would have closed it out today after that drop and took some profit home.
As to your curiosity, I’m open to whatever natural direction this thread goes.
MasterGunner,
I’ll try to simplify the re-asking of Post #150 questions in case you missed or forgot about it; please disregard if you’re actively gathering the data, planning to respond but haven’t had time, or simply don’t care. 
Defining [B]Maximum Drawdown (MD) in Pips[/B] = largest “peak-to-trough” decline or top-to-bottom loss in Pips for closed trade(s);
(1) Assuming you track one or both of these metrics, what has been your MD in Pips during the trading year (the one in which you earlier provided statistics) for both (a) a single trade and (b) a series of trades?
You also mention in a prior post: [I]“I look at the average drawdown vs what I pulled in profit.”[/I]
(2) Assuming you track it, what is the trading year’s Running Average of each trade’s [B]Average Drawdown in Pips[/B]?
Thanks again!
- Shain
Thanks! I really appreciate the insight. I’ve been trading it intraday for the past week or so and I just don’t see any reason it would end quite yet. It definitely isn’t hurting me, just not used to leaving it alone when it starts to go south a bit. Gotta get out of the intraday, trend trading mentality of buying on the start of a peak, letting it go for an hour or so and dumping it when it starts to retract. Just a completely different feeling than I’m used to. All of this is extremely helpful!
Do you concider candle types/patterns,MG,when I analise charts they hardly ever conform to the rules it seems.Cheers.