[B]This paragraph is worth the price of the whole book…
…everyone should read it at least twice![/B]
thanks!
Do you think someone would pay me to send them weekly open cross signals? Are people really that naive?
Absolutely:D
Set up a mt4 script to send out the email alerts for you and charge a small fortune and make a large fortune. 
JOKE 
Wouldn’t it have to have a really cool sounding name? I don’t think weekly open cross alert would generate any interest. 
The “question” from the author that generated the reply you liked is when hits the “nail on the head”.
==== All these technical methods are based on price. In effect, they’re all different-colored glasses for
looking at price. Proponents of RSI and Stochastics (two popular overbought/oversold indicators) would see
price patterns filtered through these price-derived series. Gann analysis enthusiasts would see the price
patterns through a Gann-based interpretation. In these cases and others, traders accumulate experience on
price patterns-albeit from different perspectives. Some of the methodologies employed, however, are
probably totally worthless. [B]It’s simply that instead of looking at prices through clear glass, traders who use
these methods are looking at prices through different-colored tints. The method, or tint shade, is a matter of
individual preference. To extend the analogy, I would compare these methods to nonprescription sunglasses:
they change the view but don’t necessarily improve the vision.[/B] The bottom line is that these methods seem to
work only because the people who use them have developed some sort of intuitive experience about price.
That’s not going to make the technical indicator crowd happy.
They’ll get over it!
PS I still have 4 ma and bolls all over my charts!
I answered a question in another thread:
[I]Yes, it is possible. You have to make a decision, either you are going to be a “dealer” or a “gambler”. The dealers at casino must stick to the rules. In black jack the dealer can not hit 17. A gambler can hit 17 if they want to. Remember, the reasons why most casinos make money and most gamblers lose:
-
casinos always play by the rules
-
casinos never change the rules
-
casinos have a tiny “edge”.
As a trader, if you have a system, method or indicator that gives you an edge, then all you have to do is trade. Over the long run, you will come out ahead because you have an edge.
[/I]
It hit me like the proverbial “ton of bricks”, the rules of casino games are very simple. The strategies that some gamblers use are complex and convoluted. Doesn’t this remind you of the systems you read about on other BabyPip threads?
Actually most of the charts just point out that buyers were interested/were not interested. If this was a how-to-do system there aren’t very many charts marking the point of entry, exit and sl. Hence the ‘few on examples’
Do you think someone would pay me to send them weekly open cross signals? :eek: Are people really that naive? :rolleyes:
Unfortunately cruising forums including this one it doesn’t take long to find the all too common “FREE SIGNALS -> B: G/U 1.6200 +100 pips -> S: G/U 1.6700 +200 pips -> B: A/U 0.9050 +100 pips ->I will now be charging for my service leave your email if you’re interested” noose that seem to generate all too enthusiastic replies
A trader should always be aware of upcoming events that could affect their positions. I am usually flat before major announcements. I haven’t have too many strings of 2% losses. Guess I am lucky.
I’m probably confusing your template with the one mentioned on the other thread which appeared to suggest not worrying about them. Glad to see you do keep those in mind, the longer I keep up with this thread’s system the more I like it
You mentioned “high probability” trades. Do you have statistics that you can share that show just how “high” the “probability” is?
When backdating general economic sentiment influenced by nearby news events and cross referencing with other factors (s/r, correlated equity/oil/gold etc.) to see if they all agree with the guestimated direction I find a higher probability of my trades succeed than scalping random technical zones hoping the painted trend and 15 min shooting star candle alone didn’t lie about price action. Not that I think strategies that revolve around these indicators are inherently inefficient more than I know I had a huge amount of difficulty following them.
If you really want to get specific - anal - with the dictionary definition of “high” and “probability” I’m not one to brag about results but just as an example of some recent trades using this scored the following
Short Positions (won %): 14 (71.43%)
Long Positions (won %): 6 (83.33%)
Profit Trades (% of total): 15 (75.00%)
Loss trades (% of total): 5 (25.00%)
These bets were all 1-20 pip wins/losses and as I mentioned earlier it suffers from trading off large solid gains for more small ones which is why I’m interested in the template you’re presenting.
At any rate they’ve shown a higher probability than results earlier this year with a random scalping model scoring a roughly 40-50% win but larger losses than wins, since alot of those were closed off in partial lots metatrader 4 would count two tiny wins as individual ones which skewed the stats as ~80% win even though it was actually causing a loss in equity.
I haven’t pulled anything off yet
What I have though is a base method I feel comfortable operating. It’s uncomplicated, straightforward & pretty much stress free to run.
It ticks all my boxes so far. I guess time will tell whether it’s the ideal vehicle for me.Yes, but that doesn’t work though does it. Trawling through these trading sites over the past six months or so has clearly shown me that type of behaviour is incredibly destructive to traders minds & their accounts.
I may be wrong but I’m pretty sure you’re making alot of the players who have been right down the wrong alley green with a mixture of envy and regret that they didn’t have the the qualities you’re demonstrating here. Current me is wishing past me had at least half of that mental resilience
And what would be the point of it anyway?
Those situations you’ve mentioned aren’t in the rules of this method.How would I be doing justice to this method & myself, if I abandoned it at the first few hurdles & simply reverted to what every other impatient gambler does?
Trading breakouts at the end of the breakout and generally trading in the wrong direction? I’m not sure that’s designed to be part of any system lol, unless the author thought it would be amusing to see how many people would purposely follow a system he’s clearly stated would result in a loss. You’ve rhetorically pointed out how ridiculous it sounds but for some/alot/me it takes (or has taken) several cycles of psychological lapses before the lesson really kicks in.
It hit me like the proverbial “ton of bricks”, the rules of casino games are very simple. The strategies that some gamblers use are complex and convoluted. Doesn’t this remind you of the systems you read about on other BabyPip threads?
On a tangent I think it’s worth mentioning that the more successful gamblers tend to use a very strict risk & money management system when they get down to it, and I wouldn’t be the first to draw similarities between poker and forex in terms of the psychological requirements.
On another one (not throwing accusations) I don’t think it’s a great thing to be in a perpetually derogatory/condescending stance against other systems or schools of thought at their shortcomings, if they’re working for someone then it’s got to have some value. All too often that trail leads to an elitism of sorts that sparks & attracts alot of inflated egos which is generally undesired particularly in this discipline
Hi crosshairs,
I’ve been following this thread with interest, mostly due to its simplicity. However despite it’s perceived simplicity I still feel I’m missing something, and your statement about making 4 USDCAD trades you’ve made, made me realise I perhaps am indeed missing something.
As I understand you are taking any trade as soon as price crosses the weekly open, from Tue - Fri - and that’s it? I’ve attached the 1hr chart with the weekly open marked in green, and each time I see price cross the weekly open I’ve stuck an arrow on there. By my count there were 9 such crosses, some of which were big trades, but some (especially in the past couple of days) would fit into the “whipsaw” category, although most of these still did 20 - 30 pips.
Would you count all these trades as valid, and possibly were only invalidated because of the time they crossed e.g. early morning? Or am I missing something?
As I understand you are taking any trade as soon as price crosses the weekly open, from Tue - Fri - and that’s it? I’ve attached the 1hr chart with the weekly open marked in green, and each time I see price cross the weekly open I’ve stuck an arrow on there. By my count there were 9 such crosses, some of which were big trades, but some (especially in the past couple of days) would fit into the “whipsaw” category, although most of these still did 20 - 30 pips.
Would you count all these trades as valid, and possibly were only invalidated because of the time they crossed e.g. early morning? Or am I missing something?
I would say they are all valid. I have been using pending orders to trade this strat. I have not traded this pair Not sure why:confused: I think one of the points here is 20 to 30 pips is plenty of pips to grow an account. A 10 pip win can do allot if the stop is tight and lot size/risk is scaled right.( see formula posted every where by extraction;))
Have you seen the Line In The Sand idea in Mac’s trading log thread? It could be applied here. It sort of happen automatically if your stop is tight when price is bouncing around at one of these lines. you may get a few small losses and then it will take off.
On a side note I scalp a completely different strat that uses BBs but I have been looking at the charts with no indicators for this strat. My scalping has improved. I still have my BBs on the chart from the broker my account is with so I will see my indicator before entering a trade… Most of the time when I see PA line up for a scalp on the empty MT4 charts I switch over to my brokers chart its lined right up where I would want in it my BBs for a trade. I am learning to see PA much better. Less of a filter;)
Correct me if I am wrong but arn’t these trades at the daily open.
My understanding was that trades were taken at the weekly open cross?
Cheers
Darren
The usdcad M5 chart from earlier today shows how you can make 5 pips or more and hit your daily goal quickly. Trading short at the line and “locking in” profit with a stop market order as soon as price gave the opportunity to rack up the pips. Look at the chart and count the opportunities.
You mentioned “high probability” trades. Do you have statistics that you can share that show just how “high” the “probability” is?[/QUOTE]
Cheers for the responses guys, certainly is a nice little community here on BP 
All makes sense and perhaps i’m not missing something. Just seems to be too simple! I do pretty good trading a PA based system, which I had put into the category of “simple”, pretty much the system cadarkitek posts up in the Trade Ideas thread. He taught me it actually, and he is a superb trader, one day I will hopefully be as good! Anyway, point is this makes use of TL’s, fibs, candles so compared to this is very complex! At first when xtraction started posting up I thought that things just couldn’t be so simple. Now…surely not…can they?
This thread just remind me of someone and one particular thread in the past.
Hmm, know what you’re saying there Ray! Time will tell I guess…
Things are that simple. If you care to take your sunnies off.
Today is another good example.
EURUSD flow broke daily open 1.4661 and is below weekly open. Net result for me +60 pips.
GBPUSD flow broke daily open 1.6376 and is below weekly open. Net result for me +75 pips.
It is that simple.
Hi used!
Are you sure about the bold ones? These values on my charts are a daily [I]low /I and a daily [I]high[/I] (GU) from mid this week. And today only EU got triggered. GU hasn’t been at 6376 since the 9th.
Thanks!
Correction.
GBPUSD [B]1.6276[/B]. That was a typo from my side. Intead 2 I typed 3.
EURUSD I got the daily open mixed up with weekly S3. :rolleyes:
EURUSD open [B]1.4729[/B] today.
Thats sorted then
With that set, I assume you first took a hit on cable just before London open.
Is that correct?
The daily open is the bottom line. The weekly open is the top line.
Once you get away from the “Myths” and “Illusions” crowd, you’ll realize how simple trading can be.
We are talking about trading and real money is at stake. If a shortcoming exists then it needs to be exposed. Most of the time, traders are fooled into believing an “illusion” and in the end, they join the 95% clubs of losing traders. You believe my stance is “derogatory/condescending”? Is that because I debate with logic and reason showing the “illusions” and “myths” for what they are?
There is no “illusion” trading the weekly open, daily open, and previous week’s high/low. As previously stated, I have no ego involved in price values that I have no control over. This is trading, up/down and profit/loss, ego doesn’t fit into any trading equations.