I just want to pay back, because I am not so egoistic to take it all for myself.
Your P/L is truth.
True.
Your Trade Management & Risk Management Structure decides about your truth.
you control your risk
you control your position size
you control your entry point
you control your exit points
Did you count how many times you repeated that in this thread? I know that. I asked another question. Got that? It is related to your âentry pointâ. If an entry point is not better than a random entry, I control nothing over an entry point. Got it now?
And if youâre fortunate enough to get on the correct side of the move, the market takes off with your money onboard and
I am not a fortune player, I am an investor. I like fortune on top. But ALL people who build their investments around fortune, lose in the long run. Got it?
you then controlling your partial or full exit according to your applied Trade Management Structure.
True.
Everything else is up to the markets and you have no contol over it.
True.
I bugger out of this thread. Let the hot shots in here carry on.
Just when I thought was missing something too, would be nice to find out what the logic behind it was (& why he was so proud of it)
That EA would replace almost everything some posters have to say in the first place lol.
You take 100 bucks for boring people? Whoâs buying
If past reaction is any indication of future reactions that particular guy is just going to keep throwing the same projections of simplicity around with the same elitist attitude, wouldnât be to productive to pursue it
Well bucks I can see how decades of programming would do that to you sorry to hear it - if thatâs what it does to you Iâm glad I didnât choose that career pathway lol, only kidding. If anything I wish I had so I wouldnât have made so many mistakes in the past, particularly trading :rolleyes:
So, my final question is: Is there any non fundamental signal in a simple form which could lead to an EA which would make profit over statistics without risking the whole account like martingale or something like that (which is not a signal, but mm strategy)? Because if there is this signal, I can code it (and some other, too).
Without extra technical indicators I still have faith in the whole daily/weekly open sort of approach, as before I would just consider adding additional criteria and management techniques such as:
a) no entry signals during slow asian session (0000 GMT to 0500 GMT)
b) no entry signals or open trades on the 1st friday of each month prior to non-farm payrolls (usually after 1330 GMT)
c) no entry signals after ~1400 GMT on a friday in general and to not hold trades over weekends
d) using a trailing stop loss (~10 pips?) after the 50 pip tp instead of closing the trade entirely
Otherwise Iâd have to say from my limited experience that youâd best look elsewhere to strategies using calibrated technical indicators like youâve done with your rsi-based EA. A S/R line can only be so strong after all
I recognized a hypothetical gain in using those fixpoints. But until now the backtests show that it is an illusion. Just my guess: It might be more precise the longer a fixpoint has historic value. A monthly open might be better than a weekly open and a yearly open might be better than a monthly open. Just hard to prove via backtests.
b-d): I will consider that. I need to have a reliable entry signal. Not to say my own EAs contain this ability, but if my own EAs produce less drawdown and better profits, I prefer them above some guesses and random fortune.
Well, as I have not too much time right now and in the next weeks, I have to shift all that to the future. You all have a nice time here and thanks a lot for everbody sharing experience. That includes used. Donât take it too serious, used! Then you might lose!
I enjoyed all of your postings and even humor! No, I am not completely emotionless, lol. I am human like you all, lol. I guess?! :rolleyes:
Ops, forgot that. Yea, that is just an additionally filter. Before this with a straight strategy without any pips for settings it produced more trades, but also more losses. Around 90 trades or so, but still a line on the graph from bottom left to upper right. A few more drawdown but 800 usd profit. Then I analyzed the losses and recognized that losses with an RSI < 70 are highly possible.
Here is the report without the RSI filter:
Initial deposit 1500.00
Total net profit 807.92
Gross profit 1281.96
Gross loss -474.04
Profit factor 2.70
Expected payoff 9.39
Absolute drawdown 59.00
Maximal drawdown 153.98 (8.91%)
Relative drawdown 8.91% (153.98)
Total trades 86
Short positions (won %) 0 (0.00%)
Long positions (won %) 86 (83.72%)
Profit trades (% of total) 72 (83.72%)
Loss trades (% of total) 14 (16.28%)
Largest
profit trade 76.00
loss trade -80.00
Average
profit trade 17.80
loss trade -33.86
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 24 (454.88)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 4 (-116.98)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 454.88 (24)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -116.98 (4)
Average
consecutive wins 10
consecutive losses 2
There was another trader who was here years ago that was a statistics guy and a programmer. He coded frequency distributions of price movement. For some reason, he got the boot. And those who followed him got the boot. Be careful, Buckscoder, or the same could happen to you.
This Forex Store method seems to be simple. A look at a weekly chart shows there are many pips available when you are long above the weekly open and short below it. The challenge comes after you enter the trade - thatâs when you have to manage the trade. Somewhere, I saw xtraction post a list of what to do after price had move so many pips in your favor.
Row 1 is green if price is above the open and red if below
Row 2 is green if price made a higher high and red for a lower high
Row 3 is green if price made a higher low and red for a lower low
Dang, I did it again! :eek: I forgot to explain the comment. It is the weekly price info: [B]o[/B]pen, [B]h[/B]igh, [B]l[/B]ow, [B]c[/B]lose, [B]p[/B]ivot price, [B]r[/B]ange and [B]d[/B]istance to open. There is an input switch to turn it off in case you donât want it on your chart.
Itâs (supposedly) no secret that the higher timeframes tend to be taken to more seriously by the larger players so Iâm guessing that would hold true but I dunno how practical they would be to apply either lol. GBPUSD 2005âs low served as 2009âs high if that means anything (1.7)
Some pretty neat results, looking forward to seeing further progress with your EA stuff - maybe even start your own thread so you can blog your findings, testing various rules and logic from other strategies on the forum
Was that trader you lol. Thatâs an interesting indicator kinda adds to the twist that a system presented by a strongly +minimalist -technical indicator based trader actually turns out to be inherently complex and eventually indicator ridden anyway.
Only difference I could pick was the second one was scrolled to the right by a day or so or am I missing something
Hmm, about boots: I donât want to sell something. My EAs are my secret and would only want to run away if I give a million bucks or so to them. And if I do not have such a sum, I would only do that if somebody buys it for that money, ha ha. See, thatâs why I asked those 3 special questions above. Why would anybody give away for free a working easy simple holy grail system? Ego only?
Letz assume, xtraction and friends own a bucket shop and want to get some new losers around âŚ
Letz assume, they want to spread their system to start a snowball system and if the money flow is there they want gain via institutional spreads over the crowd.
Just assumptions and nothing personal and it can be totally wrong, but we are talking in side of a shark basin, if it comes to money, donât we? If they canât answer those questions, then why?
The point with the weekly open is: I backtested it without emotion and the result so far was thumbs down.
If I set sl and tp symmetric and over time there is no gain, what is the fun of that signal? And if I set the sl and tp as suggested and there is still no gain over time, what is the fun of that signal?
I completely agree to the idea in its skeleton basics: Buy cheap, sell expensive. But that is just the start and not a system. Plus a system at all is worthless without reliability. I need a profitable system. A profitable system is something what works over time and gains money for sure.
Buckscoder
you are not going to find a simple strat with one or two conditions that have to be met to indicate profitable trade. My opinion:D.
This strat is defiantly not it, thatâs apparent to anyone who has tried this with a set it and forget it attitude. I think the strength of this strat lies in the ability of the trader to recognize momentum and hang on to a winner and dump a loser. I think the price levels used in this strat are levels that attract traders making higher volume and momentum more likely than a random horizontal line.
I think back testing strats like you have done is valuable. I believe their are traders using this strat and making money. your results prove the importance of MM and consistent trade management. Boring subjects for a newbie forum like this where everyone is only looking for the best entry which probably does not exist.
What would make you assume anyone here owns a bucket shop? What would make anyone sign up with a bucket shop? Someone may share their profitable system to âpay it forwardâ. Ever see that movie?
Without seeing your code there is no way for anyone to verify your results. Trading and gambling are similar and different. The difference is the trader can decide at any time to exit the game. If the weekly open cross is good for 50 pips more times than not then the trader must find a way to get those 50 pips. With at TP of 50 and SL of 20, you can win 1 out of 3 and be ahead of the game ( or breakeven depending on spread ). Wouldnât you agree setting a symmetric TP and SL goes against trading basics? Doesnât a winning trading system usually have wins larger than losses?
Let me propose another idea for your EA. Run it without stop losses to see if the TP 50 is reached. Close trade at end of the week if neither TP or SL hit. This would give you an idea of what drawdowns can be expected and how much time in trade you will encounter.
One condition could be enough to be profitable. A breakout would be one condition.
From what I have gleaned, xtraction didnât advocate a âset and forgetâ mentality. I concur that this Forex Store method is left up to each individual trader to decide how to use it profitably. Hanging onto a winner could result in over 100 pips several times a week if you trade more than one pair.
A backtest can fool you so beware. Take it with a grain of salt.
Prove it show me a back test with a simple set of conditions and predetermined SL and TP thats profitable over a large time span and variable market conditions. That would be a holy grail EA. You could just let it run and get rich. If I am wrong and you have some proof please share it with us:D.
I am not trying to say automatic trading can not be profitable but like any other strategy its more complex then it may first appear.
Back to the original concept of this thread. A very simple set of conditions to signal an entry can be very profitable [B]IF[/B] its paired with good MM and good trade management(consistent plan for dealing with open trades). I feel that of all the things you can control in a trade exactly when you enter a trade probably has the least effect on your profit or loss from the trade.
Bucks while thatâs possible - wouldnât be surprised if some of the big names like Boris & Kathy are encouraged to do that for brokers - that sort of concept is the sort of thing weâd think about momentarily then throw it out the window since that sort of mentality borderlines on conspiracy paranoia lol. Even if that was the case our own motive as students/aspiring traders would be to learn as much as possible and maybe even get something good out of it. At any rate Iâm fairly sure xtraction wasnât employed by anyone to encourage trading activity because it was kinda obvious from his posts what the main agenda other than sharing was (check the off-topic section) not really a useful thing to be discussing on this thread anyway
Iâm pretty sure alot of the potency of the system xtraction presented came from the fact that it allowed for a breakout sort of method so a more accurate backtest over the overall system (rather than just the strength of a weekly & daily open) would be to employ trail stops at target, mentioned above. Although from what I could gather from xtractions posts even he was finding it hard to decide when to close a winner, which is why I guess a trail after x pips have been reached would serve as a mechanical substitute
Well, you are right. As I said, it could be. Not it is. I am just aware of the possibilities and that you scare somebody follows you is not proof that nobody follows you. Those forums here are shark basins, thats for sure. Look at how many brokers and IBs look for opportunities here. Nothing wrong with that if you know what you have to deal with. I see it like this: There are sharks and herrings. We are the herrings. And as herring you have to watch out.
Well, right now after thinking a while, I guess I drop searching for a good signal in this thread. This is not a store, this is a joke. If I compare the things written in here with a reliable business plan, there is just nothing to compare. A profitable store is not looking for bargain sprees, a store has to buy and to sell and to proof that it will be profitable with a good plan or no bank would borrow them money. The backtest shows exact the opposite. Not to say I take back that there are in here some brilliant ideas, but thatâs it. There are some nice guys here in the forum like you and shr1k and some others. Some lost some money, but I wonât follow. Right now I am better than the crowd, because I did no lose 1 cent but won a lot of value over the years with shares and commodities. So, I am an investor and not a gambler and I stick with it. I lose some money and I win some money with investing in opportunities, but in the end the winning charge is much higher than the losing charge. Every day I am looking further at the forex for opportunities and analyzing strategies with EAs and backtesting gives me more knowledge. And knowledge is the only real thing. Best of all without losing a penny. Many people want believe what they believe and ignore some facts. Thatâs why they lose. A couple of years the earth seemed to be flat and the crowd believed in it. Only some smart guys knew it was wrong. Today it is not different, just the object changed.
I will not become a slave of my computer, just reacting to funny signals, but my computer is the slave of his master and my EAs prove it is possible to have some trades running without human interference and to gain some money at least with backtesting. If this is also possible in a real account will the future show, but I do not see why a precise EA without any emotion should trade worse than a not so precise human with emotion and in some cases wrong beliefs. Some long term manual trades here and there based on fundamental economy signals excluded, but thatâs another story and has nothing to do with any system.
I appreciate you opinion and start guessing you are right. I agree with your other parts, too. One exception: There is always the best entry, just hard to find it.
