I’m definitely with you in a sense on that point. In fact, I have to admit that I went through my February totals and the results I would have had if I had followed the quitting rule in the first few weeks were just about the same as if I had not followed the rule. The only difference is I would have had a little more sanity by trading less if I had followed that rule.
In some instances however, the rule doesn’t only protect against over trading mistakes, which it sounds like you didn’t have any and you followed the system to a “T” (I checked the 3:00 AM session and looked at your trades, it was brutal - I had days like that recently too, you’re just barely triggered in, and then barely triggered out), but in a day like today it would protect you against a choppy market that is always stopping you out. So, maybe the rule isn’t as necessary if you’re able to judge whether your losses are due to market conditions or your own mistakes. Today, it seems like losses were due to market conditions and the rule would have helped. Tomorrow, two -10’s in a row might just be a bad string that’s about to take you into profit in a few more trades if market conditions are relatively normal. For me personally, I’m going to go with the rule because, as a newbie, I think the discipline it teaches me (learning to accept losses), might be more important than the pips I might stand to gain if I continue on.
The thing about stopping trading being more “disciplined” is not necessarily true, in my opinion. Certainly you should not take weak trades out of desperation (or greed), but if the trade meets all your conditions, then if it’s a valid system, you should take it.
Imagine if on every roll of a die, you would make $1 every time it came up 1,2,3, or 4, and lost $1 every time it rolled a 5 or 6. If you had a few losses in a row would you stop rolling? What would that accomplish? Whenever you come back to it, your odds are no different than they would have been for the rolls you “skipped”.
The argument in this case could be that several losses in a row with this system can indicate that conditions right now are not favorable. But in that case, those conditions should be analyzed so they can be factored into the system’s signals, rather than arbitrarily deciding to stop trading just because you had a couple losses in a row.
Good point orpips, during chasingpip’s losing streak this morning between 3 and 5 AM EST, 10 out of 24 5 minute candles crossed the 10 EMA and closed. And, during the session from 8-9 AM EST this morning when many of us were losing, 4 out of 12 crossed the EMA. That’s a lost of crosses for a short amount of time. I wonder if there would be a mechanical way of using the frequency of EMA crosses to judge whether market conditions are favorable or not. Obviously, it’s difficult trading when the candles are hugging the EMA.
Bernie - in the last 4 months have you ever noticed a correlation between winning on a given day and the amount of trade signals produced? Maybe this is over complicating things…
I still wouldn’t recommend anyone backtesting this method, especially due to the highly dynamic way that the SL is moved once a trade is active and even then you’d need tick data which isn’t openly provided.
Another quick point which I want to highlight about my slippage blurb: slippage always results in you getting a worse price than you had requested. If you see Oanda fill you at a better price than you had requested then it comes down to the lag issue. There is still going to be a very small amount of lag even if your limit order is being converted to a market order on Onada’s servers, probably in the realm of micro seconds.
I’ve started demo trading this method today and look forward to finding out how well it jives with my personality. Work and family commitments mean that I won’t be able to trade quite the same timeframes that Bernie uses. I’ll be looking to trade 8-9am EST, 10:30-12 EST and 2-4EST whenever possible.
I knew that today could well be a very illiquid and quiet day due to being Presidents day, which was confirmed by the very sluggish moves seen in the London session and they weren’t even on holiday (and after the almost none news of the G7 communique).
I wasn’t going to jump in until I saw some real movement unfold (this is after all a momentum based method). Watching price bounce in a ten pip range for almost the whole hour after 8am was no real surprise.
I took the 10X sell at 1.2800; 10:20am: 3 pips
10X sell at 1.2790; 10:57: BE
10X buy at 1.2805; 11:04: -7
10X sell at 1.2790; 11:29: 7
FXGame seems to be on the fritz since 11:45 so I doubt I’ll be able to do any more trading later.
i cleaned out my cookies etc. and had some difficulty getting back on. i guess that is par for this day. i see a number of posts since this morning. i will read them shortly and get back with responses, if needed, later. well, this evening’s trade was no better than this mornings’. over all, i took a -25pips for the day. ouch! the evening’s trade:
6:50 eol, 1.2800, off of the 6:30 goji candle, long also became 10X
6:50 eos, 1.2780, same goji candle
6:53 long, 12800, CANCELED SHORT
6:54 moved S/L to 12792-5
7:01 exit, 1.2792-5, -7.5, -25
I’ve had some trouble with Oanda today as well. Numerous times, upon logging back in, all of my preferences have been cleared. It’s kind of annoying.
Anyhow, tonight’s trade (didn’t see that 6:30 goji candle):
7:23 short at 1.2780, TP of +14.5 (a little slippage there) at 7:24.
I had a sell order at 1.2780, but I canceled it to go change my laundry since price had reversed and was well over the 10 EMA on the other side (around 1.2795). When I came back price had plunged and would have hit my sell order if I’d left it. Well, it retraced a few pips above 1.2780 after passing it, and I decided to place the same order to see if I got filled after the retrace. Not sure how I feel about this move, but I know that if price had not retraced above my original order, I would not have lowered my order level and chased it.
I connected shortly after 7pm, did not put a short order at 1.2780, thought there was no action;), but the action did happened soon after that, it would have a TP trade.
Instead, , I decided to check what’s going on with aus/us:
10Xshort at 0.6505 at 7:25pm - exit at SL -11.
My today’s pips, well, it’s just shame to post:eek:; which makes -21.6 for February.
Now the pips that I gained are not the same that I lost. The situation I wrote about a couple of times happened to me, due to yesterday losses and a withdrawal from my account that I made last week (I felt quite confident) I had to decrease the “fatness” of my pips significantly.
1.2600 was a major support level, so I decided to go 5 pips lower to add a little insurance against being faked out. Didn’t work. That’s it for the morning. Long wicks and choppy price action.
I heard you guys on teamspeak for just a minute through my speakers. Hopefully my headset comes so I can join in.
I got some trades this morning, 4 full SL losers, one of which happened 9:00-9:05a.m. (PV trade), there was no news at the time, as far as know, but the spread went to 10 and stopped me out. Is anyone aware of any news due at 9:00am today?
chasingpips, I’m having a difficult time as well, we’re definitely in the same boat. I think we’re just in one of those inevitable drawdown periods that are bound to happen with any system. I got back on late in the morning and took one PV trade that looked good to me. It barely entered me in the trade before reversing. I’ll come back in the afternoon with great caution. And, since I took another full stop this morning (I decided it was a new session since I took a 2 hour break!), I’m going to use -10 drawdown as a stopping point.
If I traded any more this afternoon I would just be gambling. Price is still really choppy and, in looking back over the last few days, it doesn’t look like we have an edge in these conditions. Maybe I’ll see what’s happening at 7.
My headset came! I’ll talk to you guys later.
“Senior Member”! Woo-hoo! Does this automatically make me a better trader!?
Not a bad way to end the night. Where is everyone anyhow? Did you guys get sucked into the Teamspeak server this morning in some weird fluke of machine turning against man?
“Did you guys get sucked into the Teamspeak server this morning in some weird fluke of machine turning against man?”
:D:D:D
Not sure about the others, it’s strange that Bernie did not post his trades today, but I’m here, I was just watching the price action when your trades happened, decided not to participate, cause the spread was 2.5. Then it changed to 1.8, but I disconnected anyway. Will be back to trading at about 8:30 in the morning, unless I wake up at ~3am and try to get another 5-6 losers in a row:D
congratulations lavaman. i apologize for the tardiness of this post today. i had some life, other than forex, come into play. one such is that my son’s girlfriend is in the hospital. it appears nothing serious but they are running some tests. also, i can not find my notes from this morning. it seems like everything is just slightly off of my regular routine today. well, that being the case, i know i had one BE and two S/L losers in the morning. i had two BEs during the 3:00 - 4:00 pm slot. i attempted the second trade as obama was speaking then and it looked like the e/u wanted to run but each time it backed off. no, 3:20 pm fakeout today. the only successful trade of the day came on a long, off of a goji candle at 6:45 pm. i went long at 1.2590 at 7:00 pm. i moved the S/L to 1.2594-5, at 7:01, and was exited at such at 7:02, for 4.5 pips. that gave me a -15.5 for the day, and a +260.6, for february. by the way, it was nice talking to some of you in the morning, i only wish it would have been more profitable. see you in the morning.
, I decided to check what’s going on with aus/us:
I expect Oanda to grant 100-200p. for that!