Perfect setup, 15th June - NYO, OTE & Reflection Entry, good for a measily 212 pips…
Also, yes key SnR trumps market flow - but that doesnt mean it will happen at every SnR level it approaches…
I think the important thing to remember is that at these SnR levels, to expect a reaction, and more often then not, i will be looking for an entry in line with the HTF bias… If i happened to pick that one time where SnR will trump market flow and we get a reversal, thats fine… The winners picked while following the flow will outweigh the losses
Yes it is obviously going down during the first half of the chart and blowing through the levels. Now a lot of times during LO I will see price sitting above a support level and it very hard for me to sell right into one of these but if you look at these examples they worked out…then ICT says you need to watch price slam down into a key level during kill zones to get your long entry…I see this happen a lot but instead of stopping it blows right through them…
I know a lot of people are saying stop trying to pick tops or bottoms in the market…but looking at section D I posted how would you get into that trade? wait for it to happen and then find the second OTE to get in sync with it?
I think the more I study this the more confused I get…???
Now I am trying to watch the video by Chris Lori Inside the Banks and holy cow that info in this video is going right over my head…So much to learn, so little time…It seems like I could be studying for the next 5 years before I even think about making another live trade…lol
I need to clear my head and I am in the process of rewatching that Live Session of ICT’s again and again…
Nothing wrong!
Probably Commercials are expecting price to go lower???Please watch Larry Williams - The Future Millionaire’s Trading Course part 2 - min 23:00.In fact,imo, Larry explains there only 2 of 4 cases.Let`s wait 2,3 more weeks…
I found 4 cases:
1 comm net short on a downtrend
2 comm net long on a downtrend
3 comm net short on an uptrend
4 comm net long on an uptrend
Sorry to keep you from doing the assignments you probably should be doing…lol
Look at your area A, now to me it is scary as hell taking that OTE short right into a HTF key SUPPORT level…and I see this all the time OTE forms above key level like this and then blows through it…I guess right there I just said it myself if I keep seeing it I need to find out how to capatilize on it…lol
I guess at these points I’m trying to look for a long off the key level…
I think the mistake your making is your expecting a key SnR level to trump and destroy market flow everytime… If that was the case, i think we would hardly ever be in a trend based environment. I think the best way to think about this, is to stop thinking about this as key SUPPORT and RESISTANCE… Just think of them as key LEVELS… Period.
Dont expect a bounce in the opposite direction, just expect to see some sort of a reaction to them. There will be times where yeah they do hold as strong support and resistance, and there will be time where SUPPORT gets blown out, retested as RESISTANCE… Go back and look to the left on your chart, at one point, most of those levels were support at some time, and other times resistance, you only perceive it as support as its currently below current price. I just try to think of it as merely a level to expect price to react to in some way - be it a bounce or a break through and retest…
What im training myself to do, is to develop a fear for trading against the trend… If i saw price dropping, my fear would be trying to find an entry long - not saying it cant be done, but for me at this stage of my learning, i just think our odds of success are a lot greater if we trade with the HTF bias…
Since i see ICT is on the forums can I suggest something…
I know it’s very hard to get everyone all together all at once because we are all over the world and different timezones…but can we find a way to record the Live Rants because I don’t want to reply on others to record it and hope they will post it in the thread. The way it sounds is you are thinking about doing the PTC videos using this software and I want to be able to watch all of them…nothings more frustrating then sitting at work and read that you are starting a live chat session…lol…the J.O.B. is bad enough the way it is…
again, you follow the HTF direction, you only looking for shorts until reversal is confirmed… it might bounced a little up on that levels, but that would be your counter-trend scalp, get 30 pips and run…
I know a lot of people are saying stop trying to pick tops or bottoms in the market…but looking at section D I posted how would you get into that trade? wait for it to happen and then find the second OTE to get in sync with it?
I havent looked at chart yet (laptop in bed, lazy day), but I can bet you there is SMT in section ‘‘D’’, either with co-related pair or USDX, or even crack in the Indexes or Bonds… almost sure, but got to double check that. ye you would eventually find a small ote after the second, higher low is posted. In this case you have the phrase ‘‘S&R trumps market flow’’ fulfilled (SMT on HTF level, oversold HTF oscillator, I bet the trinity is in buy zone too, and most likely in pivot buy as well…)
I think the more I study this the more confused I get…???
Now I am trying to watch the video by Chris Lori Inside the Banks and holy cow that info in this video is going right over my head…So much to learn, so little time…It seems like I could be studying for the next 5 years before I even think about making another live trade…lol
I need to clear my head and I am in the process of rewatching that Live Session of ICT’s again and again…
Wish me Luck…
I know very well what you mean by that, I get it too from time to time… information overload i guess, plus we putting extra pressure on us, forcing the information in on big portions… I get moments when feel my head absolutely empty and can not tell what ‘‘pivot’’ is :34:
an exercise i would suggest: pick another couple pairs (i’m sure you’ll figure which ones are co-related), draw your levels there without any help and watch the PA on this levels for a week. Watch out for smt on this levels in particular. you’ll discover whole new world…
I believe this is a good way of putting it…I do look at them as if price is heading down into this level as support and expect a bounce higher…if you are trading up into it then expecting a bounce lower…I guess I just need to watch the level and expect a bounce in either direction as long as other factors come into play as well…
I will play with this and see if it makes more sense to me…
Among other things, I am a Containership Crane Operator (ret.) I sat in a chair bolted to a [I]glass[/I] floor a hundred feet off the ground. When I dropped the spreader bar onto the the top of a freight van, set the locks and pulled back on the hoist, when the van came off the ground, that crane shook the way Anchorage did on that fateful Good Friday, back in 1964 - (I was a wide-eyed 7-year old in his first Megaquake).
The thought of getting into the saddle of the Bucking Bronco that is Live Price - well, that scares me more than the cranes did at first. Not as bad as the Earthquake, but still.
This is the end of my 4th week studying ICT’s methods and tools and I’m beginning to build a trading plan. I have only a basic sense of these tools and methods and of the reality that is the Currency Market, but I’ve got to say that you guys and your consistent posts on both subjects have both been consistent slaps in the face until the mindlessness starts to evaporate (it’s amazing how senseless people can be about their own well-being and happiness) and you have been generous in incalculable ways. So, thank you all.
My trading plan as it sits today (oh, I try to practice the Sabbath on Saturdays - I’m not real religious but it [I]is[/I] a good way to get a day off :)) is pretty much what is found in Michael’s mentorship.
Session Trading using Key S/R levels, HTF Analysis, Fibs/Pivots/Figs with 18/40 MA, Fractals and OTEntries/Exits.
SanJ, your last post contains (for me, at least) a hidden masterpiece. That masterpiece is:
Results.
Y’gotta love it.
Mind if I follow you around from time to time? I’m trying to follow ICT around but he keeps fading in and out of some esoteric realities which I can’t follow him into.
Here the perfect example, hope this will make the lightbulb come on for you as it did for me :45:
this an advanced charting software that I have access to via my broker. dont know what criteria it uses, but there is option to automatically plot S&R lines (as well as diagonal trend lines)
see on the second picture the weekly level at 1.5652?.. see the ‘‘mist’’ around it?.. the higher TF the level is, the wider area of influence is… we cant expect after 1000+ pip slide, price to bounce bang off the level and go the other way… of course it will overshoot a little… dont know whats the ‘‘norm’’ is, but i think on 1000 pip swing, 100 pip over is pretty normal… this is where the other tools come into play to zoom in on the perfect entry with very small risk.
Believe me, if your referring to results in terms of an amazing % return on my account, im afraid you’ll be wrong. I still battle with a lot of the stuff discussed around here, you only have to look back on a lot of my posts to see that i’ve been through and continue to go through much of the same struggle as others…
Results in terms of learning however, then yeah i’d have to agree… I feel every week i learn something new about not only the market and the tools shared, but maybe more importantly, myself…
So your more than welcome to follow, but be advised, i haven’t been around here for half as long as some - im not even trading a live account yet (which will change this summer ;)), that alone will come with a whole new bunch of battles… There are a lot of hidden gem users on here that dont post half as much as me, their a lot more successful and know a lot more than i do, so just keep your eyes peeled and you’ll soon start to spot them by the quality of their posts in the thread…
Anyway, were all students here all headed towards the same / similar goals… So welcome on board… It’ll be a bumpy ride
I was shocked and amazed when you went through a full chart workup (4H Cable), and called out all your Losses…
[B]in hindsight[/B]
Man, if you can’t win in hindsight, you are f***'d
Whenever I review a chart, I like to look at it and think “I could’ve made money if I had done ______, and focused on _____ set of tools”
Maybe you don’t like the idea of painting a picture rosier than reality. I respect that, but for God’s sake have a little faith in yourself! You clearly have an issue of self-reinforced negativity, whereby your losing trades trump your winning trades in your mind, leaving you with the belief that you cannot carry out this task of trading profitably. While everyone here is doing their damndest to explain their take on your S&R issues (which are valid, obviously) all I see is the same old PIPhanger telling himself… “I think I can’t, I think I can’t, I think I can’t”
ICT does talk a lot about S&R, but he also says (along with others) that [B]“Whether you think you can or you think you can’t… you are right!”[/B]
this new software really sucks! not only difficulties with the sound, but there is no option for recording… even LiveStream is better, yes the visual sucks, but what Michael says is much more important of what he does (everyone can reproduce it on their charts for better view)
actually can not believe, from over 30 people in the room yesterday, no one manage to record the webinar?! ‘‘nothing important’’ everyone says… please, dont tell me 2 hrs ICT session is nothing important!
No No No…you got me all wrong…I am not negative anymore and I have excepted that I need to study and understand better the S&R levels and price structure and market flow better…
I did hindsight loses to try and make it clear to what I am trying to do in my trading to see if someone can make it clearer for me…
I understand where you are coming from and how this could be looked at being negative, but I’m really just trying to get some help and make things clearer for myself…
I’m not ashamed to say I am lost with this trading style even tho I have been here from the beginning…I have accepted that it’s going to take time and I will eventually get there…
I guess I have the mindset as to look at things as to why they didn’t work and learn from that, rather then learn why it worked when it actually worked…
If someone tells me the sky is blue…well I would tell them then why is it black at night??? Yes i can see the sky is blue right now but wait a couple hours and it will turn colors…
I think I would learn faster and better if ICT would break down each week and stat why this LO didn’t work and why he stayed out of the market at this time instead of pointing out each place it did work…because when he does this it just leads my mind to multiple questions as to well if we go to this date everything lined up just as you where stating before and it didn’t work out???
I guess this is just how my mind works…right, wrong, or indifferent…I don’t know how to change it…
It’s funny you mention that tbh, i was thinking about this a week or so ago… I was looking over some old PTC videos and i really learned and liked that fact the ICT went over trades he actually participated in and stopped him out (as bad as this sounds)
I just felt i learned something by looking at a professionals reasons for entering the market - and then him go over how and why it went wrong…
I actually wanted to suggest if this become possible in maybe weekly reviews, but tbh, im already grateful enough for the work and time ICT puts in to what he already does, im not going to start flapping my mouth demanding more lol…
Yeah I am not going to demand it either, but it would just be nice for the way I look at things and the way I learn…Like most people we learn from mistakes…
Do you understand the probabilistic nature of the environment you are working within? Do you understand that you can do everything “right” and still rake in a losing trade?
All you have to do is identify market situations that give favourable odds for your trade, and then consistently act in those situations. You will lose, but you will win more than you lose.
Ever wonder why ICT doesn’t risk more than 5% on any account ever? After 15 years of trading he STILL cannot stack the odds 100% in his favour.
…and one more BIG thing. Everytime you come here to vent your frustration, it’s the same tale. “ICT said to do [I]this and that[/I], and I did it and it didn’t work! ICT tell me what to do!”
Then ICT or someone tells you what to do, and you are happy again. Then you go back to the market, lose with your “I think I can’t” attitude, then come back so someone else can tell you what to do.
You have to stop relying on people TELLING YOU WHAT TO DO. That’s the mindset shift you need, and you need it bad.
I’m so new my trades are meaningless… but I absolutely agree… I learned [I]nothing[/I] from trades that worked. The ones that didn’t work FORCED me so deeply into ICT’s material - until I actually began to learn it. Kudos to you PIPhanger for having the strength of character to prefer (just as far as it helps, that is…) the mistakes that will teach. Painful but inevitably a game-changer.
