I don’t know how to do a poll so i’ll phrase it here:
I don’t know who all of you keeps an eye on the pacific. Some people seem to do nothing but technical analysis. I think it’s wise to keep an eye open for what’s going on in the world while having your other four eyes watching the rest. Not just news events on central banks. Some things might give pointers as to possibilities.
There’s a dispute between china and japan that seems to be escalating. Threats of embargos and trade wars are being issued as i write.
just google ‘china japan island dispute’ or something similar if you need to read.
My question. If this turns into a trade war. Do you think this will impact negatively on JPY and pos on USD. Effectively making the USD/JPY being taken over by the bulls and indirectly the EUR/USD taken over by the bears.
‘if’ it escalates ?
opinions please?
For their sake i sincerely hope they’re not that stupid, but if they do, i see no reason why not to make use of the situation instead of just going hippie about it
i see, this must have been a non-holy grail question then 
i do not think it will escalate into something big. some say it’s just a show.
both countries have problems of their own, aside from the world economic issues. they cannot afford to stir up a war at this point in time.
the thing is, macroeconomics and geopolitics are difficult subjects… and most traders here are new/inexperienced and would prefer to play with their indicators and try to make money fast than be bothered to analyze what’s happening around us.
well yea, i hope they all do that a lot on demo-accounts and find out quickly that you can’t just analyze a graph and make it do the same over and over again. can’t hurt to keep an eye on the world, definitely cant hurt to find a major site reporting on weekly ‘hot’ news events either imo.
@FringFX i dont think they [I]want[/I] a war either. It all seems very convenient around election time for both countries. Creating the common enemy but its more like i had the idea the U.S. would try to (pardon my figure of speech) inflate the situation a little. Doesnt seem to have had a lot of impact so far indeed and the government of Japan does what it promised, it tries to keep the Yen down for export reasons a.o. , but with the american elections and that dreaded fiscall cliff coming up i dont think big trades have a big or even reasonable chance of certainty atm. The only thing i can come up with is it seems more likely (and i’m not voicing preference on politics) for the USD/JPY to go up if romney gets elected, he seems to have some fav in hardcore rich business because he is one , if only for a little while until he can’t keep his business since its no longer business but politics, and the gov of Jpy tries to keep the yen low. Other than that my guess is as good as anyones i guess.
USD/JPY could gain if BOJ decides to buy foriegn bonds. This will ulitatemly lead to strong gains in EUR/JPY that will leak into other JPY pairs and crosses. Worth keeping an eye on. The next BOJ meeting is scheduled for 30 October
junior member huh 
i like this kind of talk a lot more than the chart thing, i know a bit about probability and i tend in most cases to divide it into 50/50, yes or no without additional info big trades remain a dicegame imo. You can do a chart pattern and hope for it to repeat under similar circumstances but the candles and fibonacci definitely aint god are they
Got any more wisdom to share? the EUR perhaps?
seems like you really are into fundamentals, macro and geopolitics.
for EUR, you have to watch out the bailout scenario for Spain and others, plus the plan for the ECB to act as Eurozone bank supervisor. they talk a lot but so far are undecided about many important stuff.
I think you would enjoy reading more about these.
so would i, any specialized websites not just run by brokers would be most appreciated as well. I wonder what the effect of the currency onslaught will be when all three US, EU and JP try to keep their respective currencies low by aggresively injecting to the point of saturation. It will probably come down to who has the biggest reserve, but is that really healthy for the globabl economy? Maybe the hong kong dollar and the yuan need to be made majors then. Looks like china is still the next big player from my pretty noobish point of view they all seem to be a little scared and china itself is really taking a stance
i can’t fathom the implications if they all keep their currencies low. yeah, China could be the next big one in the near future. keep your ears on the ground.