THE JOY OF CANDLESTICK TRADING - Part 2

[B]Just to clarify, so that no one is confused…[/B]

The [U]main chart[/U] has on it the Bollinger bands only.

The [U]5 minute chart[/U] has on it both the Bollinger bands and the Starc bands.

The [U]Basic level[/U] uses the main chart only.

The [U]Advanced level[/U] uses both the main chart and the 5 minute chart.

The main chart [U]timeframe [/U]can be from 20 minutes to 1 hour.

[B]A note on posting charts…[/B]

  1. Please turn off your grid first.
    This will greatly improve clarity.

I do not even use a grid when I am trading!! :smiley:

  1. Please ensure [U]reasonable magnification[/U] before posting a chart.
    It is very difficult to see details on a low magnification chart.

Sorry to mention trading off the mid BB. :o

What I meant was, with the BB opening up and the mid-BB pointing down.

We normally, look for two bearish reversals to take our trades on the upper BB.

But, what if the price is walking on the lower BB and then we have a bullish candle. It is followed by a bearish crossover (say like evening star) on the lower BB.

Would it be wise to trade a bearish pattern on the lower BB?

Thanks for the guidance on the mail. :slight_smile:

Thanks Vicky and Tymen. I see the difference now! :slight_smile:

Tymen,

One more question.

While looking at the EUR/USD 20 min chart today @ 8.30 am(on Dealbook), I found a morning doji star forming on the lower BB.

So, I waited for the third part of the morning star to complete.

By the time it was completed the candle/price had already touched the upper BB. How to go about this trade? To take or not to take ?

Hi Tymen and everyone else in this thread, I have prepared a few interesting formations for you.

How would you trade these patterns? I will post the correct answer later on, but please post your thoughts especially in relation to what the BBs are doing.

  1. Engulfing on lower BB, BBs are expanding

  2. almost engulfing on lower BB, both outer BBs are going down, expanding slightly.

  3. moring doji star between middle and lower BB

  4. Morning star lower BB

cheers!

Fredrik[B][/B]

Here you would expect the BB to start expanding rapidly (breakout).

You simply do not know for how long the bearish pattern will work, if at all.
[B]
This is what happens…[/B]

The price action falls.

Thousands of traders around the world see the price fall - and they hop on the bandwagon.
The brokers have to line up the longs with the shorts and the banks, pulling all the strings, reverse the price up again.

So as soon as you enter to go short,thinking a nice profit awaits you, the price suddenly goes up with green candles!!
You end up thinking that the broker saw your trade and deliberately reversed the price on you so that you would lose!!

[U]This is the main senario that greets all new traders!! [/U] :eek: :smiley: :stuck_out_tongue:

You cannot take this trade.

It has nullified itself!!

It is a dud. :eek:

I will leave this for others to attempt answers first before I step in. :smiley:

Otherwise I will spoil a great learning experience provided by [B]Eddman[/B].

Thanks for the quiz Eddman,

This would depend on two things
I. The direction of the middle BB. Is it level, up or down.
If it is
a. Up - See II
b. Level - See II
c. Down - Do not trade

II. The strength of the pattern. For an engulfing pattern on the lower BB with middle BB up or atleast level,
a. the lower wick of the second candle should be lower than the lower wick of the first candle
b. the body of the green candle should close above the red candle
c. the upper wick should not be too long

BBs are an envelope around the price action. Its a probability calculation and is a lagging indicator. It going markedly up or down can change with time and price action.
But recognizing quality patterns is essential to this method IMHO.

Also, for additional confidence see if the higher timeframe chart shows an up trend or down trend.

  1. almost engulfing on lower BB, both outer BBs are going down, expanding slightly.

Again depends on middle BB, but mostly dont take this one.

  1. moring doji star between middle and lower BB

If the middle BB is going up into the skies (i.e. angle is greater than 60 deg with the horizontal, which will happen rarely if ever),
go to the 5 min chart and hunt for a lower STARC band entry.
This is a risky trade and should be dealt only on the advanced level.

  1. Morning star lower BB

cheers!

Fredrik[B][/B]

Morning stars in my learning have never panned out as much (as Tymen has mentioned a number of times).
They will have to be followed by a strong bull candle after the pattern which closes above the red candle of the pattern to consider it as a valid trade.

All the above are my personal humble opinion and I reserve the right to be wrong :slight_smile:

Quality pattern’s have a very high success rate and i enjoy trading this method. With the stop correctly placed and with A high percentage of win rate that this method has, anybody can be very successful only trading this method. I cannot stress how important stop’s are and the great thing about trading pattern’s is that the stop’s are so clear where they should be placed and should never be adjusted. These are great post’s eddman and thank you tymen for a very good method.

Wheeeww time for a Bud.

Were there images for eddman’s post?

I am not able to see the images…

Is there something I am missing?

Yes there are four charts with pattern’s on them, I was wondering why your post seemed so enigmatic.

Federik, Good one. This thread was getting a bit boring with tymen not around.

My humble opinions on the trades.

  1. Engulfing on lower BB, BBs are expanding

This is the post where tymen explains the engulfing with diagrams.
http://forums.babypips.com/113049-post506.html

Following that, I wouldnt call it a engulf until the whole candle and the wick is included.

It would be more of a piercing pattern than an engulf.

Coming to the BB, the BB is flat and the extreme bands expanding, there are more than chances of the price ending up walking on the BB. It can be a trade but a nerve whacking one.

Most important part here is understanding BB. Many people call it a lagging indicator but, it is more of a statistical tool.
Therein, we have something called normal distribution which says “Given a data set (like prices here), 95% of the data falls within the 2 SD of the median.” With the 2SD value increasing the probability of lower price values being incorporated within is more.

  1. almost engulfing on lower BB, both outer BBs are going down, expanding slightly.

“Almost” seems more like a gambling word. Either, it is or isnt. This is again a risky one. Would wait for another good bullish change to take the trade.

  1. moring doji star between middle and lower BB

The BB seem to be contracting, meaning we are seriously ranging. Plus, there can be a one sided breakout. Bullish or bearish? Only another followup pattern will tell. I will be looking for a news followup, if not any then a S/R line. This kind of things happen during the consolidation near a short term S/R region.

  1. Morning star lower BB

Hmm, this one looks good. Most probable a single 10 pip trade, and there about it.

LOL… yeah i wondered how you could point out the BBs going down etc… :slight_smile:

I figured it out… looks like my company firewall is blocking the image hosting URL… therefore in firefox I see just the text and in IE I see 4 boxes with red ‘X’…

1- I don’t think the first one is a real engulfing, could be a good trade, but I wouldn’t dare it.

2- Definitely not: with that green candle with a short wick at the bottom and long one at the top. :eek:

3- Doesn’t touch the BB band and is quite a weak pattern, I wouldn’t consider it as part of this method.

4- This looks better, but just for a few pips, I think the downtrend will prevail. To exit before mid BB.

Good trading guys!!

hey everyoane I have follow you in the first part of this thread but due to my university that I graduaded this summer I haven’t enought time to spent reading this thread too.

May I ask you if anybody is doing this in a live acconut and how much are the return?
And what about the RR?
do you have a first fixed target in amount of pips?
if enybody can answer this question I’ll be glad

Hi, I’ll tell my experience, maybe it can be useful…

After my GFT demo account expired, I opened a real tiny account with MB Trading. (unfortunately at GFT here in Europe they are not as nice as the friend of Tymen in Australia, so I quit with them). :mad:

But I’m still learning: I just use very small amounts of real money (0.5 micro-lot, so 5000 dollars) to get used with emotions…
It is incredible how different it is, even dealing with a very few dollars, when they are real… :eek:
So I cannot tell about “return” in money, but in pips… And yes, it works!

I started studying forex in march and discovered Tymen method on April; but unfortunately, for personal reasons, I had to stop trading for the whole June, but I hope to start again since next week… So I’m talking of what I’ve experienced in May.

And for what I’ve experienced, I can’t find so many good patterns to trade every few hours, like Tymen says (maybe it’s me, I’m a bit too prudent). But when I get one it is quite always positive.
If at the end of July my insignificant account (500 $) registers a good positive balance, after holidays I’ll put there a more consistent amount of money to trade for real…

Since I started with the advanced method (and so the price action is more under control than in the basic one) I force the risk/reward ratio to be 1:1 by placing PCI stop loss at the same distance of the expected take profit.

If other people of this thread would tell their experiences with this method I think it could be interesting for all… :rolleyes:

Bye

Just to let you know which patterns did work out:

  1. Yes, really well.

  2. No

  3. Yes

  4. No

I will post more like this in the future and encorage. I am requesting you to post your trades here with charts and also motivate in text why you did take the trade… would help our newbies out a lot!

I am still very novice so in the beginning of last week I would probably have traded all those patterns. In the beginning of this week I would not have traded any of them… it’s a learning process I guess and I am in the middle of it:)

Fredrik