Aye - that’s an old saying - but in FX the risk is multiplied by two - there are two instances of risk - right now USD/JPY has tripped and fell well below the gains in the early EU session - first portion was sell JPY in EU session on good EU news, second portion now a USD sell off - but risk remains on - good learning day.
Edit - to illustrate my point here is UDD/JPY right now - the buy set up a couple of hours ago was
1 - risk is on
2 - buying late Asian early European
3 - price has retaced to 50% of most recent hi/low
4 - Jpy weakness Gbp/Jpy and Eur/Jpy
5 - former support -resistance-support theory
This is not 100% true. Many traders predict the market very well. Most of the times it is predictable. Experience and practice makes a trader understand the market
It’s a rather ambiguous question. Experienced traders believe that the market is entirely predictable and that with the right information, one can predict future growth or decline. Others think that the market is very dynamic, and it is very difficult to predict events. In my opinion, the market can be predicted, but the accuracy of such predictions is not 100%.
Yes I believe at certain times markets are more predictable than others. Oversold levels lead to recoveries, extremely overbought levels lead to sell offs
Also low volatility leads to high volatility this is the markets most dominant cycle
At other times there is randomness - but any system should be able to keep you out of the randomness and in when the stars line up
is weather forecasting considered predicting the future ?
nobady can predict the future but laws of science give us the power to know how the output can be if iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiif all goes well
Back to the scene as far as the left side is concerned - price has gapped down - the previous day was a down day - the current day (Thursday) the high fell well short of the previous day’s high - the gap down … well close to the low… and of course all oscillators divergence saying a sell.
Why should a trader even think on the right side about upward in the immediate future?
You need to predict the market pattern by watching news and economic calender. The accuracy of these predictions are not 100% but it can help you to form a strategy
It is possible to predict the market , but it does take a lot of experience and time. You can start by tracing Economic Calander and the news applications, this all will give you a base to infer the fluctuations coming up in the market.
If you do it rightly, forex trading is definitely going to be a profitable decision for you. You have to learn to make proper trades. For that, you may also demo trade before you risk your money. Remember that you will have to make losses in the market, no matter what. So, don’t feel disheartened if you lose because your losses pave your way to making profits.
It is possible to predict the market but with the probabilities. There are always chances of different outcomes. So you can go with the outcome which has higher probability which will include some risk.
As a retail trader you will encounter guys say that you are not privy to information that the big boys have - but this too is not really correct.
Let’s take inflation right now - the pressure has been downward due to economic lock-downs - so what does the future hold?
Check your weekly spend - notice things like a widely UK newspaper has just raised it’s price by about 4% - think why did it do that - unlikely to be wages (usual largest cost to a business) then what about the next largest cost item - raw material.
So are commodities rising in price, is energy also rising, local electricity company have raised their prices - higher energy equals higher transportation costs etc.
Then look to economies that are emerging from the virus - are they over-borrowed based in lower interest rates - what happens if those rates begin to rise on the back of rising inflation?
The market does not dislike borrowing so long as GDP is rising, but increasing borrowing accompanied with lower GDP is a cause for selling.
Thinking about these things is how it’s possible to get a sense of market direction.
Edit: check an index called the CRB index - this will give a clear indication of commodities direction.
[quote=“peterma, post:14, topic:320990”]
But small guys have a distinct advantage - there is no requirement to be in the market every day.
[/quote]great point
It is a very debatable topic. Markets can never be100% predictable, but the basis for any business, including trading is demand and supply. These two factors are literally the 2 invisible hands that determine the entire market. Once, a trader can understand this and use this principle, it is possible to predict about 90% of the upcoming market conditions.
I don’t know how people get to know in which direction the market is going. I try my best to predict the direction but it doesn’t always turn out to be useful. Sometimes, I go in the exact opposite direction and there is nothing that I can find to get help from.
