Its too early to tell on GBPCAD. GBPAUD definitely will, but we could still make money on it.
Go ahead mate.
Ha I’m short at 1.90600. Kinda sad omg
I don’t know what is the timing? I was just follow the EMAs and stochastic crossover then I enter the trade.
Current basket,
Short G/A,G/C,G/J,G/N.
With G/N at stop loss (high) but holding to exit on opposite trigger.
Hi leonlee,
I think you just need to take a little time in your trades and look to see what the higher time frames are doing first before entering on the H4, as Philip has said we need to wait a little first and wait for the correct setup, I will show you how i see the GBP/CAD going at the moment.
DAILY CHART
H4 CHART
Hope you are using Demo account first…! Please dont trade live until you fully understand your actions…
Good Luck…
If you are still short, then hold on. Price is retracing lower and should give you a good price to exit with a lot lesser pips in loss.1.907 through 1.906. You just might get lucky
What is ur stop loss for GC?
My positioning for the moment
GBPJPY: Short. Besides the EMA bearish crossover, there is also a bearish flag pattern that has emerged. Reversal from 38.2% has given the first clue. Failure to break above the trend line is the second clue.
So i’m short GBPJPY, targeting 180.71 after which i’ll let the remainder run its course. Would remain cautious until the 200 EMA is broken.
GBPAUD: EMA’s gave a sell but price reversed from the 200 EMA and then the 20/50 EMA’s turned bullish. Stochs are also in OB levels, meaning that GBPAUD is likely a long position. Current price action has hit the trend line so a decline is possible.
Note the levels at 1.96298 - 1.96028, the most likely retracement and a level to go long from.
Philip’s method is bang on target here, because if you had went short at 1.962 levels, this retracement will ensure that you exit at a very little loss.
Perfect system here Philip.
GBPCAD: Same scenario as GBPAUD. Price found support at 200 EMA and broke out from the falling trend line. Stochs are at OB levels right now and a dip to 1.90692 is very likely.
Break of the small trend line will however indicate downside momentum likely to build up.
Again, 1.90692 marks a dip back to previous short entry, thus minimizing your loss again to the bare minimum.
So to summarize: GBPJPY is a short, GBPAUD is preparing for long, GBPCAD, we need to wait for more confirmation.
Hope this helps.
Very helpful information and analysis ! Thanks man. You are awesome.
Btw, I got the same setup of GJ. But I missed that trade to enter once the stochastic crossed. Why don’t you enter at the stochastic cross?
Reg: GBPJPY, I was long in fact yesterday (along with GBPAUD) but then exited late night after noticing that the daily candle was forming to be a dark cloud cover pattern (indicating short side bias). Taking this into account and the larger JPY position (ex: AJ/NJ/CJ, all heading lower), I just reversed my position.
In effect with GJ & Philip’s method, the short at the first stoch cross would have been a valid entry anyways.
So right now, i’m short in GBPJPY and exited my GA longs as I expect a retracement at a better level than my previous long entry.
Philip,
Sorry for the bother, but my modeling #'s are not coming out as I expected, but I fear that I’m not doing something right. Assuming that the Fib extensions are not getting you out of a trade (and I know that you personally ignore Initial Stop if stochastics are working in your favor), algorithmically, how can a trade be exited?:
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If opposite EMA crossover happens during trade by itself?
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If Stochastic crossover at opposite end of entry happens during trade by itself?
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If # 1 happens first, followed by # 2?
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If #2 happens first, followed by # 1?
How many of these 4 scenarios above alert us to exit trade?
Thanks in advance,
Doug
If we neglect fib extensions. We exit a long position when the following happens:
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The 20 Ema crosses below the 50 EMA.
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Stochastic moves to overbought area (80+)
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Stochastic crosses below its moving average.
As I said since you are testing the system on the stock market, I’d only trade long entries. The idea here is the trend in any stockmarket is always up and this is a trend following system.
I hope this clears it up.
Yes, I agree, but I’m modeling Short as well, for the purposes of applying it to FX data eventually.
On the above, I assume you mean 1 OR 2 OR 3, and not that all 3 have to happen simultaneously.
Thanks again.
I’m using the opposite signal exit so no stop loss just eyeballing.
I’m saying 1 then 2 then 3 then I exit. The all have to happen in order for me to exit. They have to happen in that order as well.
Anybody using Oanda? Do I use the Full Stochastic set at 14,3,1?
I get out from that trade with -8 pips. Lol
Potential Trades
AUDNZD: Retracement to the long should start soon
NZDCAD: Retracement to the short should start soon
RBNZ Rate statement within the hour
Trades in play
GBPJPY shorts triggered as expected. Waiting to take partial profits at 180.71
Not trading GBPCAD
GBPCAD, could be short as failure to rise above previous support at 1.91351 shows a temporary resistance being formed. The short term trend line should be breaking soon.
GBPAUD, I exited long positions.
Overall a simply great system that’s really keeping losses to the bare minimum.