The Most Profitable Trading Pattern You Will Ever Encounter

[Jalapenofan]

I just downloaded the data of a pair (I am not sure if this is the way it works); if this works I can share other pairs.

Hum, well, I can’t upload the .csv archive (an error happens), I can send you a mail with the data if you want. To download the data, on metatrader 4 you have to go to File > Save As > File Name > CSV File Type (if someone else is interested on helping with the data).

EDIT: I uploaded it to mega, check your inbox, doug

[Shemski]

Unfortunately I don’t have my original chart infront me which uses GMT candles.
I have the Trading View chart which uses Eastern Time. Looking at the chart 0.97743 or something, so you should be in the money.
It is a failed short, you should wait for stochastic to go to oversold. Then exit when stochastic main line crosses above its signal line. You still should make a profit on this one.
Note however that it could happen that by the time stochastic goes oversold, the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA. In that case you don’t exit. I hope this makes sense.

I got SL’d out with a 5pip profit. Was out of the office and didn’t have time to babysit the pair.

[doughayman]

Understand your points, Philip, thanks. Unless we are algorithmic HFT types, we will never trade to the letter like a back-testing, computer-based system would. We will all add our own twists, let emotions factor in, etc. All that said, I always like to back-test a system before trading it, to determine the gotchas. Your system looks real good. What I will want to look into is to optimize on entries, to avoid the chop. Personally, I would like to trade a low risk/lower reward system, than a higher risk/higher reward system, but that’s just me. I don’t want to add undue constraints to a system that will jeopardize the trend-aspect of this system, but I want to look at some of my charts for back-testing to see how to minimize trade entry to avoid some of the whipsawing and chop.

[Shemski]

EUR/AUD setting up for another entry. Philip would you take this trade again? This would be the second (almost third) signal since the start of it’s downtrend.

[Shemski]

Understand your points, Philip, thanks. Unless we are algorithmic HFT types, we will never trade to the letter like a back-testing, computer-based system would. We will all add our own twists, let emotions factor in, etc. All that said, I always like to back-test a system before trading it, to determine the gotchas. Your system looks real good. What I will want to look into is to optimize on entries, to avoid the chop. Personally, I would like to trade a low risk/lower reward system, than a higher risk/higher reward system, but that’s just me. I don’t want to add undue constraints to a system that will jeopardize the trend-aspect of this system, but I want to look at some of my charts for back-testing to see how to minimize trade entry to avoid some of the whipsawing and chop.

I honestly do not think you will be able to reduce the risk of a chop. The fact that this strategy is based on a 4HR chart, you are going to have some chop… Thoughts?

[Shemski]

EUR/GBP is also getting close. Keeping a close eye on this pair, a drop down to .675 is very well possible.

[PhilipPirrip]

EUR/AUD setting up for another entry. Philip would you take this trade again? This would be the second (almost third) signal since the start of it’s downtrend.

I personally don’t prefer to do multiple entries, those who do can. They have to remember however that one of those trades have to end up a loser.

I didn’t trade that pair, but if I were I would still be in it with my stop a close above 1.38998 (extension 2.0 on fibonacci.)

[leonlee0116jl]

Who still hold AJ, NU, NJ short on last Friday?

[doughayman]

I just downloaded the data of a pair (I am not sure if this is the way it works); if this works I can share other pairs.

Hum, well, I can’t upload the .csv archive (an error happens), I can send you a mail with the data if you want. To download the data, on metatrader 4 you have to go to File > Save As > File Name > CSV File Type (if someone else is interested on helping with the data).

EDIT: I uploaded it to mega, check your inbox, doug

Hi Jalapenofan,

I’m struggling to send message replies from personal forum Email, so in case you didn’t get my message, I’m reposting here:

Thank you for your Email. The NZDUSD.csv file that you sent me is right on track, except for the face that the date format (yyyy.mm.dd) is not recognized by my Wealthlab system.

1. Can you somehow get it alternatively to list as “yyyy-mm-dd” instead (that is, with dashes, instead of dots)? If not, I can write a program to post-process this data, to make the change?

2. After the date/time, is this .CSV file in Open, High, Low, Close, Volume format?

Given the above, I can use this data. However, I’ll have to separately run simulation on each CCY pair individually, since the data is not in native Wealthlab format. But, I don’t mind doing that.

Thanks,

Doug

P.S. As many years of data as possible, and since I’m not (yet) an FX trader, as many of the popular traded CCY pairs as possible. Thanks again.

[Jalapenofan]

Who still hold AJ, NU, NJ short on last Friday?

I am on NU and NJ, but not in the AJ.

[Shemski]

Who still hold AJ, NU, NJ short on last Friday?

I am still in the NZD/USD trade, entered at .734 (a little late)

[doughayman]

I honestly do not think you will be able to reduce the risk of a chop. The fact that this strategy is based on a 4HR chart, you are going to have some chop… Thoughts?

Not sure, I’m going to have to look at a lot of charts. Perhaps the slopes of the EMA’s prior to cross?

[gianseng]

Hi Jalapenofan,

I’m struggling to send message replies from personal forum Email, so in case you didn’t get my message, I’m reposting here:

Thank you for your Email. The NZDUSD.csv file that you sent me is right on track, except for the face that the date format (yyyy.mm.dd) is not recognized by my Wealthlab system.

1. Can you somehow get it alternatively to list as “yyyy-mm-dd” instead (that is, with dashes, instead of dots)? If not, I can write a program to post-process this data, to make the change?

2. After the date/time, is this .CSV file in Open, High, Low, Close, Volume format?

Given the above, I can use this data. However, I’ll have to separately run simulation on each CCY pair individually, since the data is not in native Wealthlab format. But, I don’t mind doing that.

Thanks,

Doug

P.S. As many years of data as possible, and since I’m not (yet) an FX trader, as many of the popular traded CCY pairs as possible. Thanks again.

Hi Doug,

You can get free forex data from Download Free Forex Data – Free Forex Historical Data. There are data upto year 2000s.

[PhilipPirrip]

Who still hold AJ, NU, NJ short on last Friday?

I’m short NZDUSD and Nzdjpy still. I didn’t trade the AUDjpy. we do hold the trades beyond the week Leon don’t worry.

[bioshock]

G/J closed at target (major TL) +498 pips

G/C closed at 100 fib for 104 pips

still in N/U,N/J,A/N

[Shemski]

@bioshock

G/J closed at target (major TL) +498 pips

G/C closed at 100 fib for 104 pips

still in N/U,N/J,A/N

Great trading! Are you live or trading a demo account?

[bioshock]

Unfortunately I don’t have my original chart infront me which uses GMT candles.
I have the Trading View chart which uses Eastern Time. Looking at the chart 0.97743 or something, so you should be in the money.
It is a failed short, you should wait for stochastic to go to oversold. Then exit when stochastic main line crosses above its signal line. You still should make a profit on this one.
Note however that it could happen that by the time stochastic goes oversold, the 20 EMA crosses below the 50 EMA. In that case you don’t exit. I hope this makes sense.

Hey Phil
To extend on the risk management, if 20 and 50 crosses back after a failed pattern. You don’t exit at stoch. But leave the current trade as is with fib trail!

Thanks

[bioshock]

Great trading! Are you live or trading a demo account?

Thx, demo but will add this to my current strategy after more confidence.

[Shemski]

Philip, with a pair like EUR/USD or Gold which is trending extremely in a certain direction, would you be willing to tweak your system and enter at a lower/higher rate on the Stoc-Ost?

I am tempted to change values to 30/to and see if I can ride a few trades in EUR/USD and Gold, maybe Silver and Oil also…

Thoughts?

[PhilipPirrip]

Philip, with a pair like EUR/USD or Gold which is trending extremely in a certain direction, would you be willing to tweak your system and enter at a lower/higher rate on the Stoc-Ost?

I am tempted to change values to 30/to and see if I can ride a few trades in EUR/USD and Gold, maybe Silver and Oil also…

Thoughts?

I continue to trade them the same way to be honest I just closed a EURUSD short last week for +714 pips.