Hi Philip. I just started trading your system late last week. I got in on the AUDNZD, NZDJPY, AUDUSD, and AUDCAD. I closed AUDCAD tonight for about 31 pips and of course reopened a trade on the same pair as a buy. You can’t beat closing a “losing” trade for a profit! I really love it so far!
The results on the B&H strategy are awesome, but curious how they are so different from the other ones.
@Philip
I have a question about the trade / formation in this post.
I know you said you wouldn’t have taken the long trade. But I just want to use this as an example. Assuming that you have taken that long trade or a similar one, how would you handle / manage that? I think your strategy of “waiting for a contrary signal” to aim for break even or even some little profit won’t work in this case, right? How would you manage it then?
to the guys looking into backtesting or automating this system…
Not sure how your TP/SL levels are being set. If you haven’t already, try this approach.
Assuming your coding is right and to the ‘T’ in following the rules, set each trade with 3 target levels.
T1 @ 100% Fib, Move SL to +5Pips above Entry
T2 @ 127.2% Fib, Trail SL by +10Pips
T3 @ 161.8% Fib, Trail SL by +20Pips
T4… Let it run.
Phil, AUDNZD previous losing long trade recovered.
Made a healthy profit in the past 2 hours (very good enough for me to shut shop for the day, considering its FOMC tonight).
Never though i’d be able to say this but this is how I prefer to trade on a high risk day. Make a quick buck and sit aside.
I am building small positions onto GBPNZD longs however.
Jalapenofan, the B&H (Buy & Hold) strategy has nothing to do with any of the models I’m doing (sorry that I included this; my oversight). It just says that if you bought equal amounts of every stock in my test (Dow-30) at the beginning of the test period, and just held it to the end of the test period (25 years, in this case), these are the results you would get. Purely a function of the market rise over that period, with no eye towards trading.
Paying it forward
As a thank you to Phil for sharing this great method and a great set of people on this thread, here’s my small contribution. Moving average crossover dashboard with ‘X bars ago’ alert.
You can find the .exe file here.
Here is how the dashboard looks:
Dashboard indicator is self explanatory and has the 20/50 crossover alert. You can set up as many TF’s as you want and as many pairs as you want. But don’t put in too many as it could slow down your MT4.
P.S: Look for Bearish or bullish bars that crossed over between 10 & 20 or 30 bars ago (these are the ideal ones that are ready for a retracement).
Took me $40 to get it coded, but doesn’t matter as the profits made from this method in the past few days is far greater than that.
PPS: I might be looking into advancing this indicator to add Stochs too but wouldn’t want to complicate it. Any inputs/improvements to this would be great.
Cheers & Happy Pips!!
From earlier in this thread, Philip uses Fib Extensions vs. Fib Levels. I’m using his algorithm. I’ll let him explain/defend the use of one vs. another, but back-testing is currently based off that. And FYI, this last test result was based on Philip’s way of trading (no Initial Hi/Lo Stop Losses, but use of subsequent Fib Extensions for profit targets/stop losses). If you go back in this thread and look at my original model results posting, you will see that I had 3 different tests/results (one does use Initial Stop Losses based on initial Hi/Lo calculation). When this model eventually solidifies (and I’ve got some work left), I will want to auto-generate something similar to your Dashboard, which incorporates all of Philip’s trading rules (with optimizations). I’m not familiar with MT4 (I use IB), but what you’ve done is very cool.
hello everyone … I apologize for bad English, … hope they understand me … since the early days I have been following this thread, for the simple reason …, that there two years tried exactly the same strategy, so which was not in h4 … was in d1, … did not work at the time and never remembered to test on h4, … I’ve been doing my tests and see the results in h4 are much better and consistent , my congratulations to Philip, is actually a very good strategy in h4 … I want to share my experience with you all on this strategy, … as such … note that many of the trades go to breackeven no gain … tested a different way that made the overall result rise dramatically, open … 2 trades with the same lot, … the first to take profit in level 1, … pass the stop lose the 2 trades to breackeven, .and let the second trade to run untill the end, … trailing like philip explain by the fibo levels, … this will dramatically increase earnings, … in my metode I use -0382 fibo level to stop lose, .for me works … I will continue to follow this thread, .and share my ideas, .one more time sorry about my bad Inglish
Lads I want to say that I’m going into today’s event flat. I closed all my trades. I know that if the news come USD bullish I’m going to be an instant millionaire. Yet I decided to take my time on that project as a bearish USD will be devastating.
Hope you guys do the same…
Yeah I actually covered that in latter posts. I would have lost 500 pips with waiting for the contrary signal. But then shorting the contrary signal would have made me 1200 pips anyways so I would have won 700 pips.
Of course there will be trades that lose bad, but the system is worth it in my opinion. Not to mention that the RSI filter would have prevented you from taking that trade.
Very cool. I’d appreciate a guide on how to install it?
Just drag and drop to your MT4, just as you would with any other indicator. The indi opens in a secondary window.
In the settings, put in your preferred format as XXXXXX;ABCXYZ;etc
Then set the time frames you want to be alerted for. You can just one or all the time frames. Just add M15;M30;H1;H4;D1;W1;MN (15 minutes through monthly)
Finally the configuration is set in already 20 EMA & 50 EMA Exponential MA based on closing prices. All of which can be changed of course.
And then you have the notification section which is merely true/false if you want a pop up alert and/or email alert and/or MT4 push notifications if you use iOS or Android mobile devices.
You’re set!!
This dashboard is still a work-in-progress as I plan on implementing few additional features.
And reg. FOMC I’m with you. Exited my trades, even new ones and closing the day with a decent profit heading into the event. See some tempting trades, but I keep telling myself, the markets will always provide an opportunity.
Good night folks and trade safe!
Doug I was just looking at the chart of EURUSD. The daily will not work with the monthly RSI, its too slow. I’m afraid its just the 4HR.
Would you prefer if I do the test manually? Or just tell you the dates and have you start the test from those dates where RSI was in the allocated areas?
Took my first serious trade on a demo account using this strategy and its the first time I have actually gone straight into profit . Thanks again Phillip . Also would like to join the chat if it’s still going on?
Real smart. I knew FOMC wouldn’t raise rates any time soon. Fundamentally-speaking, I think we’re gonna see a nice drop in USD from here.
Philip, I think I already posted with my DOW-30 Daily date that RSI(14) on monthly still didn’t act as a good enough filter for that data set. I’ve been busy on a # of things, so I haven’t looked at implementing on the 4H yet, but I will, if it’s at all possible to do so. I really like the automation for testing purposes, and doing a lot of manual checking for an extended period of time can be exhausting. So, give me a bit of time to get it to work - it’s all part of what we want for the end results anyway - and worst case, we’ll do it manually. Also, I want to implement the EMA100/EMA200 filter, as discussed, on the Daily, just to see where that lands.
Take your time I wasn’t pushing, I was just putting ideas forward.
Just allow me to disagree on the RSI 14 filter. The idea is with EURUSD there was a lot of consolidation, that affected the performance of the backtest. So the idea of the RSI 14 monthly was to cut out consolidation.
We never had a problem with consolidation with Dow because the trend is bullish, that is why the RSI didn’t seem to make a difference.
I agree with you on your Dollar views 100% I’m sure a lot of people who followed the advise will be hapy as well.
No prob at all, push away, and please keep the ideas coming. Again, my goal is to get inside of your head on how you trade, and try to capture all the rules for simulation purposes. If Sim = the way you trade (or close to it), then this is GOLD. Then, we can optimize, try different things, etc, and hopefully push some of these rules into jw1981’s Dashboard, to alert on possible potential of trade opportunities.
I’ve been trading since 2002, and worked for Reuters in an IT capacity for many years prior to that, so I’m really into back-testing the crap out of systems, to point out particular gotchas in certain market environments. I’ve preserved a lot of cash that way. Winning % means nothing to me; it’s just icing on the cake. Equity curve growth and preservation of capital mean everything to me. Sorry in advance to all if this takes time, but gotta get it right. It can only help us all in the long run.
Thanks for the great work and time you and philip invest in this!
I’m sure this already great strategy will become even better.
Just wanted to say thanks on behalf of all the participants of this thread (that greatly benefit of your work and ideas)…you deserve to know that we appreciate your effort!
OK guys, found a bug in my model, and I need some helpful suggestions. It is fairly obvious that if you were active in this Short, that you would Cover where the Stochastic Cross happens in Overbought area. However, algorithmically in my model, I detect a cross if Slow D > Slow K (at Bar X), and Slow K > Slow D (at Bar X+1) for a Short trade. No prob so far detecting that a cross occurs. Next though, I need to ensure that these 4 data points are all inside the Overbought zone. Slow K is actually ABOVE the Overbought dotted line at Bar X+1 (might not be readily obvious from the Chart, but trust me on that), so algorithmically that test fails. However, graphically, we can see that the point of intersection clearly lies in the Overbought Zone (come on guys, stay with me on this…I hear some snoring in the back of the room…).
Short of borrowing my kids’ Algebra books and setting these 2 lines (y=mx+b) equal to one another and solving this algebraically, which is gonna be a real pain in the arse to do, can anyone see an easier way to identify that this cross point is within the Overbought zone?
Any workable solutions will result in me giving you my special, 1st-round upset in the NCAA Tournament…
