Regarding RSI I’m amazed by your ability to work with indicators Phil.
Both USDCAD and USDJPY going strong. I’m planning to hold USDCAD until it re testes previous high 1.27
As for USDJPY 127 its breaking out of a long range its apparent even on weekly. So I’m expecting a strong rally afterwards so as long US data comes out decent. Whats your take on these , TP levels as opposed to fibs ?
Have you still got USDCAD running ?
Here’s a quick preview
Nomura reckons the BOC :
"will maintain its optimistic view on the economy based on the expected strength in the US
This will “support Canadian non-energy exports and business investment”
The last time CAD rallied over 300pips over the announcements dollar was weak back then I wonder how dollar will react this time around. Its going to be interesting :33:
The exit is still using the fib extensions. I didn’t find a better way. However you can use the range analysis of RSI to manage your trades. I’ll explain it in the next post. Of course it was there on hipchat so those who have read it there will not read anything new here.
Here is an example of how to use the stochastic with RSI to understand the trend. Its quite simple really.
I will put out the guide for those who haven’t read it already.
Here painted Fibonacci expansion, <name in this platform I have
"As I learned I have drawn from the highest to the lowest wave, and then to the end of the corrective wave, and placed 1.27 and 2.618 level
Philip…you have Open a Short EURUSD from 22nd at 1.1078…what time frame chart was that entry as I thought only 4HR charts and if so i cant see the entry there…thanks in advance
Hi all, my first post on this thread, but have been reading up on the technique thus far. I was watching the EUR/GPD too but wanted to confirm it’s still a valid setup since it is the second time the stoch has moved into overbought since the EMA crossed to the short side. Is it ok to jump in on these as long as the EMA hasn’t crossed back over?
Now the idea is quite simple. You go through the pairs, and I did this weekend. Now I noticed threeimportant things:
USD is being bought (according to the pattern) across the board.
EUR is also being bought, except against the Dollar (so far).
Both AUD and NZD are being sold across the board.
So we reach the conclusion that over the coming days, dollar and Euro are the strongest pairs while AUD and NZD are the weakest. We thing AUD is the weakest pair so far, because AUDNZD is giving a sell signal.
So the conclusion is [B]to long EURNZD, EURAUD and to short AUDUSD and NZDUSD[/B]
So how to choose which pair to short? We move to the weekly chart.
You will notice that EURNZD and EURAUD are getting ready to give a sell signal on the weekly. This is true for all Euro pairs. [B]We are getting ready for a capitulation in the Euro.[/B] This immediately tells us that may be we shouldn’t take the EUR longs (we can since the stops will protect, but we have better alternatives.)
On the other hand the weekly chart for AUDUSD and NZDUSD shows a healthy downtrend. [B]The only problem is the divergence on the weekly suggest an imminent correction there before the downtrend resumes.[/B]
So? Now we can prioritize which pair to choose. You can clearly see that none of the four pairs passed the filters. You can still trade them, but they won’t be your trade of the year for sure.
The top priority as a result becomes waiting for a sell signal in EURNZD and EURAUD if it appears this week.
The second priority is to take an AUDUSD short (NZDUSD’s signal was already triggered).
Then the third is to long EURNZD or EURAUD if that’s what materializes.
Fourth priority is to basket trade all the signals triggered this week, this usually proves the safest in situations like this.
Great idea on identify currency trend. I can really understand very easily.
However, you jumping between 4H chart and weekly chart.
Can you explain how actually you utilize these two timeframe?
"Now the idea is quite simple. You go through the pairs, and I did this weekend. Now I noticed threeimportant things:
USD is being bought (according to the pattern) across the board.
EUR is also being bought, except against the Dollar (so far).
Both AUD and NZD are being sold across the board."
How you identify the currency strength and weakness? on 4H or weekly?
compare each USD,EUR,AUD, NZD paired currencies to identify?
“The top priority as a result becomes waiting for a sell signal in EURNZD and EURAUD if it appears this week.”
Is the top priority to watch at weekly chart? using the same set up?
The second priority is to take an AUDUSD short (NZDUSD’s signal was already triggered).
Is this looking at 4H chart? Because the weekly AUDUSD sell signal already executed.
Then the third is to long EURNZD or EURAUD if that’s what materializes.
Long EURNZD or EURAUD is on weekly chart signal or 4H signal?
Thank you for kind reply.
To help me newbie to better understand your idea.
Let’s take it step by step. If I fined a sell signal [B]on the 4 hr[/B] in AUDUSD, NZDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD and a buy signal in USDCAD and USDJPY. This tells me that the US dollar is strong.
Now the same buy signal occurred for Euro against all those except the dollar, so it is second strongest. NZD is producing sell signal [B]on the 4 hr[/B] against all currencies, then it is the weakest. AUD is the second weakest.
Now I move to the weekly to look at the long-term trends:
So I notice two things: 1) The strength in Euro on the 4 hr is against the trend in weekly.
The strength in dollar in the 4 hour is with the trend on the weekly.
So this says that AUDUSD and NZDUSD shorts have a higher probability than EURNZD and EURAUD longs.
That’s the jist of what I said. Hardly rocket science
