The Progress of Alphahavoc III

[alphahavoc]

Trading Day 5 ( 2nd Aug 2019 )

2nd Aug 2019
0102HR SGT
Symbol : NZDUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.03 ( exited 0.015lot at 0.65536 profited about 20pips)
Open : 0.65734
Target 0.65219
( manually closed at 0.65549)
Stop: 0.65901 ( buy stop order cancelled)

According to my SW rankings, USD remain at 2nd placing but momentum index has weaken slightly. NZD have drop from rank 6 to rank 7, momentum index is not showing signs of weakening. A possible retracement phase for NZDUSD before bearish run resume? I really don’t know. Furthermore, tonight is NFP, most market participant may choose to adopt a wait and see attitude, with the exception of the longer term position trader and intraday long shot speculator. Thus, i choose to liquidate my remaining NZDUSD position.

With respect to the SW rankings, EUR remain at rank 1 and momentum index show a significant increase from -3.8 to 0 . Although GBP rose in rank, momentum index show an even larger drop from 4.6 to -1.4 .

In the early Asian sessions, price broke Daily R1 demonstrating bullish sentiments. A further test of daily R2 level may be highly possible IMO.

2nd Aug 2019
1432HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : Long
Lot : 0.03
Open : 0.91494
Target : 0.91541 (hit target)
Stop: 0.91349

2nd Aug 2019
1116HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : Long
Lot : 0.01
Open : 0.91480
Target : 0.91651
( manually closed at 0.91497 )
Stop: 0.91199 ( sell stop order cancelled )

During the London session open, EURGBP was unable to climb higher than Asian session High. Market participant are probably wary of tonight’s NFP. In any case, i’m calling it quits. My EURGBP is manually closed at 0.91497. Playing it safe, i want to avoid NFP altogether.

[alphahavoc]

Weekend Contemplation

" RBA Cuts Cash Rate Again to Fresh Record Low of 1%
The Reserve Bank of Australia lowered its cash rate by 25 bps to a new record low of 1.0 percent at its July meeting, as widely expected. It is the first back-to-back cut in borrowing cost since 2012, aiming to support employment growth and to provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target. The Committee said they will continue to monitor developments in the labour market and adjust monetary policy if necessary. "

Excerpt from the statement by the governor, Philip Lowe:

---

CHINA EXPORTS

" Australia’s dependence on Chinese money has been a blessing for the local economy, but it could unravel painfully if China’s economic slowdown worsens.

Key points:
Australia’s biggest exports are iron ore and coal, worth $120b (or 30pc of goods sold overseas)
The nation’s largest export markets are China (31pc), Japan (13pc) and South Korea (6pc) "

By business reporter David Chau
Australia’s fortunes are linked to China’s economy

[bizdons]

Hey please how do I get this your strong weak ranking, weekly report

[alphahavoc]

@bizdons

Hey please how do I get this your strong weak ranking, weekly report

Go thru this thread, find out how the SW ranking is constructed, and understand how Dennis interpret his own chart.

Trading the Trend with Strong Weak Analysis

Hi Everyone, I have been running a popular thread in the Trade Journals forum ( same title) , and this might be a more suitable place for it. I do my own unique version of a strong weak analysis where I identify the strongest down to the weakest of the 8 major currencies, the idea being to match the strongest with the weakest and trade that pair. Combining this with good technical analysis and trading in the direction of the trend has lead me to consistent profits over the last 3 years. Thi…

Then use your own creativity, modify Dennis SW model to suit your own trading DURATION. Play with various different Moving averages, 1hr, 4hr, daily & weekly candle.

Take note of NET CHANGE between … ? COMPARE your own personally developed SW rankings versus the price chart. BACK TEST, FORWARD TEST, with your own trading STYLE, methodology you are able to understand and execute with EASE.

I have a superstition. When you share the exact construct of your own SW ranking with others. It will start to fail. You will bombarded with the “WHYs.” Your faith will be challenged.

In trading, make ASSUMPTIONS and TEST it. When at 1st you don’t succeed, try harder the next time round. You only REALLY fail when you give up.

You must understand that 2 different MMA fighter using the SAME exact martial arts technique can yield COMPLETELY different results. The one who wins is only because of TIME, EFFORT and FLAIR.

PS : If you are not prepared to die trying, most probably you won’t succeed. ALL athlete have tremendous amount of desire to keep them moving forward.

[alphahavoc]

Building a slide

[alphahavoc]

Trading Day 6 ( 5 Aug 2019 )

In anticipation of the forthcoming cash rate decision by RBA. My over the weekend contemplation on the fundamentals for AUD was a bearish one. From my SW rankings, although AUD rank 1st, momentum index was rather weak as there were at least 3 other Major currencies with momentum index stronger than the AUD. I am incline to take a bearish stance on the outlook for the AUD this week.

5th Aug 2019
0644HR SGT
Symbol : AUDJPY
Action : short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 72.458
Target : 72.199 (hit target)
Stop: Nil (no stop in place)

5th Aug 2019
0644HR SGT
Symbol : AUDJPY
Action : short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 72.458
Target : 71.919 (hit target)
Stop: Nil (no stop in place)

Technically, it would be unthinkable to buy into AUDJPY at the moment. At present, i really don’t know where to place my stop loss, thus i’m not putting any stop order in place.

5th Aug 2019
0840HR SGT
Symbol : AUDJPY
Action : short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 72.326
Target : 71.199 (hit target)
Stop: Nil (no stop in place)

I’m off to a great start for the week. During the early part of the Asian session, all of my AUDJPY hit target promptly.

5th Aug 2019
0644HR SGT
Symbol : AUDJPY
Action : short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 72.458
Target : 71.919 (hit target)
Stop: Nil (no stop in place)

Technically, it would be unthinkable to buy into AUDJPY at the moment. At present, i really don’t know where to place my stop loss, thus i’m not putting any stop order in place.

5th Aug 2019
0956HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 91.432
Target : 91.219 ( downgrade to 91.399 )
Stop: 91.611 ( buy stop at 92.301 )

5th Aug 2019
1006HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 91.482
Target : 91.419 ( downgrade to 91.399 )
Stop: 91.611( buy stop at 92.301 )

5th Aug 2019
0947HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 91.544
Target : 91.489 ( downgrade to 91.399 )
Stop: 92.201 ( buy stop at 92.301 )

5th Aug 2019
1629HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : short
Lot : 0.04
Open : 91.842
Target : 91.709 ( hit target )
Stop: 92.301 ( buy stop order )

[ria_rose]

Always so refreshing to read your journal @alphahavoc. Haha. I’m now thinking of including photos in my journal too. Haha. Anyway, good luck to us this week!

[baemax023]

I agree! I enjoy visiting his thread because of the pictures.

[alphahavoc]

5 Aug 2019
1759HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : Short
Lot : 0.08
(All positions merged into one big position)
Open : 91.678
(Averaged price level of merged positions)
Target 1 : 0.04lot buy limit order at 91.668
Target 2 : 0.04lot buy limit order at 91.519
Stop : 92.301 ( 0.08lot buy stop order )

All of my EURGBP positions are making me dizzy. I decided to just merge all of them into one big position, so that i can see where my average position is at. I’m aiming to square off 50% at 91.668, leaving the remaining 50% to take a stab at 91.519 .

5 Aug 2019
1759HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : Short
Lot : 0.08
(All positions merged into one big position)
Open : 91.678
(Averaged price level of merged positions)
Target : 91.668 (adjusted as a take profit order)
Stop : 92.301 (adjusted as a stop loss order)

After receiving a private message from a kindred spirit from Babypips. I decided to go on the defensive. My intraday analysis was right, but i had sub-optimal management of my positions. Price broke out above 91.60. That was my initial stop loss price, the price level which in my opinion should hold, and if not i should get out.

However, that was a direct conflict against my SW rankings forecast, which IMO EURGBP should go down. Thereafter, i decided to move my stop loss further away and held on to my SW ranking forecast belief that price will go down.

Basically, i have this bad habit of refusal to accept that the SW ranking can have its limitation, and that i’m wrong. A kind of denial attitude.

Right now, at the present moment, i’m already committed. Thus, it make no sense to cut loss at whatever level price it is right now. Furthermore, current price is tanked at the upper limits of average daily range. It is a do or die situation, i simply have to take a stand. There is a high probability that price will reach at least 91.668.

I believe the mistake made here was not cutting loss when price broke 91.60 . Now the decision to aim for 91.688 is all in all a brand new trade altogether. I’m going for it, and a Stop loss is set in stone at 92.301 .

Regardless of whether i get this oversized trade right or wrong, moving forward, i will remember today’s lesson.

1. Didn’t cut loss when my stop loss level is breached
2. Inappropriate adding of positions to average,i need to make more timely and accurate price averaging (must be of significant distance before averaging, otherwise risk overexposure of margin due to an oversized position)
3. Really need to further downsize my initial trade position.

A bitter pill to swallow . . .

[alphahavoc]

Trading Day 7 ( 06 Aug 2019 )

A walk in the park…

A guy catching pokemon and a girl jogging.

Drive thru McDonald

5 Aug 2019
1759HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : Short
Lot : 0.08
Open : 91.678
Target : 91.668 ( manually closed at 91.738 )
Stop : 92.301 ( cancelled and set at $500 equity balance )

6th Aug 2019
2152HR SGT
Symbol : USDJPY
Action : short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 106.515
Target : 106.299 ( hit Target )
Stop: 106.711

By some divine intervention, i miraculously survived the drawdown with my EURGBP trade. So much for my stop loss set in stone at 92.301 , i started with $1007, and when the drawdown was close to 91.301, i was down to about $700 - $800, i can’t exactly remember how much. I was too incapacitated to act. I gave it the ultimatum of half my initial equity balance at $500. My maximum drawdown was close to equity balance of $523. I probably could only afford a further 2 to 3 pips drawdown till lockdown of my account at $500. I was saddled with utter disappointment and about to give up.

Then a miracle happened, by the combine power of all my babypip fans, All of you must have prayed for me. Price reversed and i managed to get out at 91.738. For the 1st time in all of my 7 years trading experience, i actually manage to scrapped thru a mismanaged trade. Previously, i have never once survived a screw up.

Providence have endowed me with a second chance. I will definitely treasure it. By the way i have also closed my CHFJPY long and short. It is delusional to think that i will be able to unhedge it and price will move back to breakeven level.

[MrDE]

you eat mcdonalds a lot

[clemmo]

+1 for the cat costume

[alphahavoc]

Trading Day 8 (07 Aug 2019)

7th Aug 2019
0817HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.21794
Target : 1.21941 (downgrade to 1.21901)
Stop: 1.21489 (hit stop loss)

A scalp trade
7th Aug 2019
1002HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.21776
Target : 1.21801
Stop: 1.21699 (hit stop loss)
( price consolidating on the 1min chart, took a stab at 1.21831)

7th Aug 2019
1035HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.21652
Target : 1.21801
Stop: 1.21489 (hit stop loss)

7th Aug 2019
1035HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.21644
Target : 1.21691 ( hit target )
Stop: 1.21489

7th Aug 2019
1039HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.02
Open : 1.21605
Target : 1.21651 (hit target)
Stop: 1.21489

Base on my SW rankings, my intraday directional outlook for GBPUSD is bullish. Thus, i took a couple of contrarian averaging trades with stop loss at Early Asian session’s Low. If that price level doesn’t hold, i’m biting the bullet.

At current point of analysis, price is still trading above Asian session High price. My assumption for GBPUSD is to form a daily close up candle today

7th Aug 2019
1434HR SGT
Symbol : USDJPY
Action : Short
Lot : 0.04
Open : 106.218
Target : 106.019(hit target)
Stop: 106.701

It seems that i may be wrong about GBPUSD. Price took down Asian session Low. I’m cutting loss. I change my focus to USDJPY.

By means of Raw price action using daily candlestick. Tuesday candle form a open wedge formation, breaching Monday High and Low, showing mixed signal. However, on close scrutiny, the top wick for Tuesday candle was longer than the bottom wick, thus showing that selling pressure may be slightly stronger at the moment. Furthermore price is trading below daily open, thus my impression is for USDJPY to form a close down daily candle.

7th Aug 2019
2239HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.21562
Target : 1.21419 (hit target)
Stop: 1.21711

7th Aug 2019
2245HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.21622
Target : 1.21519 (hit target)
Stop: 1.21711

Technically, price breached daily S1 just before US session open demonstrating bearish strength. At present, price is trading just below pivot level, and the underlying assumption here is for GBPUSD to form a close down daily candlestick pattern.

7th Aug 2019
2349HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.21586
Target : 1.21519 (hit target)
Stop: 1.21711

[alphahavoc]

Trading Day 9 (08 Aug 2019)

At present, USD ranks 5th out of the 8 major currencies. Momentum index weaken from 1.8 to 0.4 . JPY maintain at top spot with a huge increase in Momentum index from -6.2 to 2.2 .

On Tuesday, price broke Daily R1 level illustrated strong bullish momentum. However, the bullish spike was nothing but the last rays of the setting sun. Price promptly reversed and took down Daily S1 level yesterday, and seem ready to resume in its original bearish trajectory.

8th Aug 2019
0620HR SGT
Symbol : USDJPY
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 106.125
Target : 105.899 (hit target)
Stop: 106.401

8th Aug 2019
0620HR SGT
Symbol : USDJPY
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 106.125
Target : 105.719
(Stop out at 105.911)
Stop: 106.401
(adjusted/trailed to 105.911 to lock in profit)

8th Aug 2019
0959HR SGT
Symbol : USDJPY
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 106.286
Target : 106.199 (hit target)
Stop: 106.401

Ginger onion fish with rice

8th Aug 2019
1517HR SGT
Symbol : USDJPY
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 106.124
Target : 106.019(hit target)
Stop: 106.401

[alphahavoc]

Bus ride

Train ride

Piano lesson

9 Aug 2019
A trip to the book store. Taking the bus.

Then the train

Hijacked by the animal ride

Hijacked by the play ground

Finally reach the book shop!

A bunch of trading books!

A quick glimpse of the scenery at top floor before we left

[ria_rose]

You have such cute kids! Haha. It’s great cause you seem to be doing well, balancing your time for forex and for them. Happy for you!

[alphahavoc]

Trading Day 10 (09 Aug 2019)

9th Aug 2019
1424HR SGT
Symbol : USDJPY
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 105.897
Target : 105.699 (manually closed at 105.766)
Stop : 106.201

9th Aug 2019
1814HR SGT
Symbol : USDJPY
Action : Short
Lot : 0.04
Open : 105.871
Target : 105.829 (hit target)
Stop : 106.001

I’m going out for dinner, manually closed my remaining USDJPY trade. I’m satisfied with today’s profit. No further trading from me today. Happy weekend ahead everyone!

Today is Singapore National Day

[alphahavoc]

Trading Day 11 (12 Aug 2019)

Currently, Yen is in 2nd placing with a rise in momentum index from -1.2 to 2.4 . Ideally, i would like to pair it with AUD, GBP and NZD . However, technically wise, the charts are not giving much opportunity. Yen pairs simply crashed too much and a mean reversion or profit taking by last week’s trader cannot be ruled out.

12th Aug 2019
0553HR SGT
Symbol : USDJPY
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 105.617
Target : 105.559 (hit target)
Stop : 105.711 (adjusted to 105.731)

12th Aug 2019
0602HR SGT
Symbol : USDJPY
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 105.644
Target : 105.599 (hit target)
Stop : 105.731

12th Aug 2019
2141HR SGT
Symbol : GBPJPY
Action : Long
Lot : 0.02
Open : 127.242
Target : 127.491 (hit target)
Stop : 126.989

12th Aug 2019
2311HR SGT
Symbol : GBPJPY
Action : Long
Lot : 0.02
Open : 127.220
Target : 127.351 (manually closed at 127.300)
Stop : 127.069 (adjusted to 126.889)

12th Aug 2019
2327HR SGT
Symbol : GBPJPY
Action : Long
Lot : 0.02
Open : 127.140
Target : 127.201 (hit target)
Stop : 126.889

[alphahavoc]

Trading Day 12 (13 Aug 2019)

NZD ranks 8th with momentum index still on the low side. Although momentum index for JPY have weaken slightly, it is still in 2nd placing. Technically, NZDJPY is on a clear bearish trajectory. Currently, it appears to me that NZDJPY has failed the attempt to breach Daily R1 level, and should be on its way to test Daily S1 level.

13th Aug 2019
1403HR SGT
Symbol : NZDJPY
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 67.983
Target : 67.859 (hit target)
Stop : 68.301

13th Aug 2019
1403HR SGT
Symbol : NZDJPY
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 67.986
Target : 67.799 (hit target)
Stop : 68.301 (adjusted to 68.101)

Chicken rice for lunch

With reference to my SW rankings, USD seems to be sandwiched by the rest of the major currencies, and looking rather directionless. GBP did a heavy retracement yesterday causing momentum index to rise from -3.6 to +3.6 , showing strong bullish strength. However, despite the strong bullish momentum, GBPUSD price was unable to breach yesterday’s Daily R1 level, and that IMO is a sign of inherent weakness. In addition, and surprisingly GBP rankings actually drop by 3 placing instead, which further points towards a relative weakness against most major currencies.

Technically, price broke below daily pivot level during the Opening hour of the European session, giving hints that the European market participant might be gunning for Daily S1 level at the moment.

13th Aug 2019
1846HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 1.2083
Target : 1.20699 (hit target)
Stop : 1.21101

Dinner at Long John Silver’s, Fried salmon and chicken

13th Aug 2019
1709HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.20659
Target : 1.20519
(manually closed at 1.20642)
Stop : 1.21101 (adjusted to 1.21011)

GBPJPY and USDJPY is giving me the jittery. I’m tightening my stop loss level and unwinding one of my GBPJPY position. I have only one GBPJPY of 0.01lot left in the run. Now i can go back to sleep in peace.

13th Aug 2019
1710HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.20659
Target : 1.20399
(Manually closed at 1.20548)
Stop : 1.21101 (adjusted to 1.20911)

0300HR SGT
So weird, just woke up by a dream. I was playing golf and had a thorn in my 4th toe. It was irritating me. Then i watch someone performing a bicycle stunt, jumping on his hind wheel crossing a bridge, the stunt failed but the rider was fine, the bicycle falls into the river. Then there was this huge gigantic bush that separated the golf course and the stunt that i saw. I walk pass the bush by the side and back to the golf course, a thought came to mind, “if the golf course is too easy, there is simply no fun at all.” Then i woke up. I quickly reviewed my GBPUSD position and closed it. It doesn’t look like it is going anywhere. I’m going back to sleep now… weird.

I actually physically checked if i really had thorn underneath my right foot 4th toe. I’m documenting my dream here in babypips and going back to sleep now. I never played golf my whole life, except in nintendo golf. The thorn in toe felt so real… really need to sleep. Need to wake up at 6am.

[alphahavoc]

Trading Day 13 (14 Aug 2019)

Deja Vu Experience!

Opportunity to Short NZDCHF?

After the crazy spike last night, i thought there would be much changes to my SW rankings, but on the contrary, there wasn’t much changes to the ranking. Technically, we can just ignore the charts for now, and especially so for Intraday traders. After a spike, the charts simply skew beyond mortal level of comprehension. On a personal note, i would like to wager on a mean reversion trade, and i seems to have spotted one. Furthermore, NZDCHF is of a clear bearish directional bias, i shouldn’t be too wrong to short it.

14th Aug 2019
0830HR SGT
Symbol : NZDCHF
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 0.62992
Target : 0.62899 (hit target)
Stop : 0.63211 (adjusted to 0.63501)

I decided to widen my stop loss, so as to give it a little more breathing space. Just in case, the remnant bullish strength might still be intact. Unlikely though…

14th Aug 2019
1137HR SGT
Symbol : NZDCHF
Action : Short
Lot : 0.05
Open : 0.63058
Target : 0.63009
(manually closed at 0.63018)
Stop : 0.63301

Sickening move, i’m setting all stops at 0.63301

I got a chance to closed my 0.05 lot NZDCHF manually at 0.63018 . Now with that position out of the way, it was a huge sigh of relief for me.

Damn it, i have gone overboard with a huge position once again. Seriously, it was nerve racking. That trade was entered out of slight frustration. Although, i manage to close it in time with no huge drawdown, things could have gone out of hand, if my directional bias was wrong. In any case, i’m thankful that trade didn’t turn out to be a nightmare. Moving forward, i need to be more mindful on my position sizing.

14th Aug 2019
1041HR SGT
Symbol : NZDCHF
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 0.62940
Target : 0.62899 (hit target)
Stop : 0.63301

14th Aug 2019
1058HR SGT
Symbol : NZDCHF
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 0.62970
Target : 0.62940 (hit target)
Stop : 0.63301

Finally! Price action heads toward my desired direction.

14th Aug 2019
0830HR SGT
Symbol : NZDCHF
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 0.62986
Target : 0.62699
(manually closed at 0.62871)
Stop : 0.63301

14th Aug 2019
1824HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.20842
Target : 1.20779 (hit target)
Stop : 1.21101

14th Aug 2019
1824HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.20843
Target : 1.20699 (hit target)
Stop : 1.21101

Now, the underlying assumption for me taking this GBPUSD short is a risky one. There is no technical basis as per say, but base on my own personal 7 years of experience in observation. My assumption is that GBPUSD is ranging and will bounce off Monday’s high. In addition, my SW rankings also confirms GBPUSD as bearish in nature. To top that off, yesterday sudden spike, more or less will make a large portion of the market participant play the wait and see game, thus i think it will be unlikely for price to propel itself any higher than Monday’s High. My targets projection are at 38.2% fibo retracement level. Just as i was typing away, i had already hit my 1st target.

All positions closed.

Late dinner, Laksa and dumplings

15th Aug 2019
0113HR SGT
Symbol : GBPAUD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.78772
Target : 1.78599 (hit target)
Stop : 1.79501

15th Aug 2019
0113HR SGT
Symbol : GBPAUD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.78776
Target : 1.78319
(Manually closed at 1.78666)
Stop : 1.79501

Trade consideration,

1. SW rankings indicate GBPAUD directional bias bearish
2. Technically ranging and at present moment price at peak of range.