The Progress of Alphahavoc III

You shouldn’t and would be dangerous to do so.

Just look at the monthly charts, look at all the closed down candle from 2018 till now. My presumption is for 2019 to form a Yearly bear candle by end of 2019

2018 High low range =
1.2555 - 1.1215 = 0.134 ( 1340pips)

50% of 1340pips is 670pips

Take 2019 high minus 670pips =
1.1569 - 0.067 = 1.0899

This year, the Low price of the year have yet to reach 50% of last year’s High Low range! There is definitely more room for EURUSD to crash.

Just as i type, price just made new high and seemingly aiming to take down my resistance at 1.10901. Felt kind of hairy.

I see it. Definitely been bearish on this one but now you’ve put it into perspective! I think I did look at the longer term charts in the past but haven’t done so recently. Also didn’t take into account the range for sure.

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Trading Day 30 (10 Sept 2019)

Update of my current order,

Three existing open order from yesterday,

09 Sept 2019
2128SGT
Symbol : EURUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.10477
Target : 1.10369 (hit target)
Stop : 1.10901

10 Sept 2019
1822HR SGT
Symbol : EURUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 1.10415
Target : 1.10329 (hit target)
Stop : 1.10601

10 Sept 2019
2056HR SGT
Symbol : EURUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 1.10400
Target : 1.10339 (hit target)
Stop : 1.10901

09 Sept 2019
1530 SGT
Symbol : EURUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.10289
Target : 1.09919
Stop : 1.10901

09 Sept 2019
1621SGT
Symbol : EURUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.10358
Target : 1.10199
Stop : 1.10901

My pending short is now an open order

09 Sept 2019
2110 SGT
Symbol : EURUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.10400
Target : 1.10199
Stop : 1.10901

Trading Day 31 (11 Sept 2019)

Update of current open orders,

09 Sept 2019
1530 SGT
Symbol : EURUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.10289
Target : 1.09919
(Finally hit target on the 3rd day)
Stop : 1.10901

09 Sept 2019
1621SGT
Symbol : EURUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.10358
Target : 1.10199
(Finally hit target on the 3rd day)
Stop : 1.10901

09 Sept 2019
2110 SGT
Symbol : EURUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.10400
Target : 1.10199
(Finally hit target on the 3rd day)
Stop : 1.10901

Early lunch, chicken, steam egg, veggie and kickapoo

2 Likes

Looks like a healthier lunch… But what on earth is Kickapoo joy juice! :crazy_face::stuck_out_tongue_closed_eyes::rofl:. Sounds like some kind of laxative medicine?! :joy::joy:

3 Likes

Upon investigating this deeper, I find that the Kickapoo are/were actually a tribe and indeed (according to Google) are known for their trading:

“…the Kickapoo became involved in the fur trade and later dealt in other goods as well, ultimately becoming known as shrewd traders

Looks like you are mixing with the right people! :+1::blush:

2 Likes

Oh! I didn’t know about that…:laughing:

Finally hit all my targets on the 3rd day.

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Early lunch

Very tired, overwhelmed with work. Did not make any trade since yesterday.

Trading Day 32 (13 Sept 2019)

13 Sept 2019
1104HR SGT
Symbol : EURAUD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.005
Open : 1.61068
Target : 1.60699 (hit target)
Stop : 1.62201

13 Sept 2019
1104HR SGT
Symbol : EURAUD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.005
Open : 1.61070
Target : 1.60299
Stop : 1.62201

Trade considerations,

  1. Mean reversion on the horizon, expecting price to test daily pivot today.
  2. " European Central Bank governors representing the core of the euro-area economy resisted President Mario Draghi’s ultimately successful bid to restart quantitative easing, according to officials with knowledge of the matter. "
    Bloomberg

13 Sept 2019
1513HR SGT
Symbol : EURAUD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.61615
Target : 1.61419 (hit target)
Stop : 1.62201

13 Sept 2019
1815R SGT
Symbol : EURAUD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.61588
Target : 1.61419 (hit target)
Stop : 1.62201

Trading Day 33 (16 Sept 2019)

Update on outstanding open order from last week,

13 Sept 2019
1104HR SGT
Symbol : EURAUD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.005
Open : 1.61070
Target : 1.60299 (hit target)
Stop : 1.62201 (edited to 1.60801)

16 Sept 2019
1942HR SGT
Symbol : EURAUD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 1.60583
Target : 1.60499 (hit target)
Stop : 1.60801

16 Sept 2019
2150HR SGT
Symbol : EURAUD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 1.60671
Target : 1.60419 (hit target)
Stop : 1.60801

2 Likes

Trading Day 34 (17 Sept 2019)

Last week. AUDCAD was on a clear bullish track, breaching daily R1 on a daily basis. Yesterday, the bullish run paused, and price was trading within last Friday’s daily High Low range. I decided to make an assumption that AUDCAD is ranging with slight bullish bias. Price should be trading between 2 zone, namely
zone one 0.90500 - 0.91000
zone two 0.91000 - 0.91500
IMHO, price should be supported by 0.90500 and make attempt to test 0.91000 .

17 Sept 2019
1038HR SGT
Symbol : AUDCAD
Action : Merged Long
Lot : 0.04
Open : 0.90798 (merged two 0.02lot long AUDCAD at 0.9086 and 0.9073)
Target : 0.90808 (hit target)
Stop : 0.90449

At around 0900HR +, I had entered a 0.02 lot Long AUDCAD position at 0.9086 price level, targeting 0.90981 . However, price crashed, and i realised that i may have entered my position a tad too early. Thus, at 1038HR, i decided to average my position at 0.9073, hoping to average and square off my positions at 0.90808 .

At around the same time, I also entered another 0.03lot of AUDCAD long position.

17 Sept 2019
1038HR SGT
Symbol : AUDCAD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.03
Open : 0.90693
Target : 0.90808 (hit target)
Stop : 0.90449

If my assumption that price will test 0.9100 price level is correct. i should be able to at least hit my desired targets for the above 2 trades that i have made.

After one whole day of dreaded waiting, My trades finally hit target. So my guess was right after all, AUDCAD make attempts to test 0.91000 in the end.

18 Sept 2019
0028HR SGT
Symbol : GBPCAD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.005
Open : 1.65531
Target : 1.65299
Stop : 1.66251 (edited to 1.66551)

18 Sept 2019
0029HR SGT
Symbol : GBPCAD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.005
Open : 1.65518
Target : 1.65069
Stop : 1.66251 (edited to 1.66551)

Trades consideration,

Average weekly range for GBPCAD is about 300+ pips. Last week, High Low range was more than 500pips, a state of overbought exhaustion may not be impossible. Average daily range for GBPCAD is about 140pips. At present point of analysis, today’s High Low range has done about 160pips. It is my discretionary opinion that High Low range for the day is done, thus my directional bias for current US session is bearish.

From the weekly chart,
between 1.65000 - 1.66000 is a zone of significance (2018 Year Low)
between 1.63000 - 1.64000 is another zone of significance IMHO

IMHO, price should be ranging between these two zone of significance. A break above 1.66000 or below 1.63000 may signal a potential reboot of trending status either to the upside or downside.

“ Keep in mind the daily ATR is in the range of around 160 pips, so you’ll have to give this pair room to breathe, especially with the potential for Brexit-related news to pop up at any time. ” Pip Diddy

Taking into account of Pip Diddy’s comments, for my Short GBPCAD trades, i decided to move my stops further away to 1.66551 price level .

Trading Day 35 (18 Sept 2019)

Update on open trades,

18 Sept 2019
0028HR SGT
Symbol : GBPCAD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.005
Open : 1.65531
Target : 1.65299 (hit target)
Stop : 1.66251 (edited to 1.66551)

18 Sept 2019
0029HR SGT
Symbol : GBPCAD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.005
Open : 1.65518
Target : 1.65069
Stop : 1.66251 (edited to 1.66551)

18 Sept 2019
0717HR SGT
Symbol : AUDCAD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 0.90898
Target : 0.90819 (hit target)
Stop : 0.90151

Trade consideration,

  1. Yesterday, AUDCAD breached daily S1 level showing some bearish pressure
  2. MACD Bearish Gray
  3. Resistance Daily R1

Breakfast of the day

18 Sept 2019
1018HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 0.88604
Target : 0.88519
Stop : 0.88801 (hit stop)

Trade consideration,

  1. 4hourly close below Bearish Ichimoku cloud
  2. Vladimir Ribakov’s bearish Divergence on the 1hr chart

Early Lunch

Beginning of the year from January to May, EURGBP was largely bearish, from May to August, EURGBP was basically bullish. That might lead one to assume that the yearly candle will close up. However, the odds are stack against it now, as price is currently trading below Year open of 0.8976. IMHO, if price were to go below 0.89000, the year candle may possibly form a close down candle by year end. One interesting point to note would be that it took only about a QUICK 2 months for price to tumble below year open, that IMHO is a sign of weakness.

By Murphy’s Law,
“whatever can go wrong, will go wrong.”

PS : Silly me, just realised 0.89000 had already been breached last week. That means a close down yearly candle is in the deck!

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Great journaling. Love the family and food pics. Definitely cut down on the fast food and soda. Maybe run some correlations between trading performance and caloric intake for the week. Wonder if you’ll come to any interesting conclusions.

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Good idea! :thinking:

Trading Day 35 (18 Sept 2019)

Update on open trades,

18 Sept 2019
0029HR SGT
Symbol : GBPCAD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.005
Open : 1.65518
Target : 1.65069 (hit target)
Stop : 1.66551 (edited to 1.65751)

18 Sept 2019
1540HR SGT
Symbol : GBPCAD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.04
Open : 1.65499
Target : 1.65349 (hit target)
Stop : 1.65751

ALL POSITIONS CLOSED!! :partying_face:

18 Sept 2019
2133HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 0.88662
Target : 0.88599 (hit target)
Stop : 0.88911

I decided to short EURGBP again. I really wonder how i got hit. Why did i not set my stop loss at Daily R1??? This is really a mystery. This morning, my stop loss for EURGBP was set at 0.88801, i should have set at daily R1 0.88901. Then i wouldn’t have lost that trade. This is so weird. I must be too sleepy this morning. Just as i am typing away, one of my EURGBP shorts hit target! :grin:

Trades consideration,

  1. Receding Bullish MACD histogram
  2. Overall Bearish trajectory

18 Sept 2019
2131HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 0.88657
Target : 0.88519
(manually closed at 0.88644)
Stop : 0.88911

18 Sept 2019
2253HR SGT
Symbol : EURGBP
Action : Short
Lot : 0.02
Open : 0.88660
Target : 0.88599 (hit target)
Stop : 0.88911

All positions closed once again! :partying_face:

19 Sept 2019
0101HR SGT
Symbol : EURNZD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.74523
Target : 1.74349 (hit target)
Stop : 1.75001

19 Sept 2019
0101HR SGT
Symbol : EURNZD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.74523
Target : 1.74169
Stop : 1.75001

Trades consideration,

  1. MACD bearish Divergence vs Higher Price levels
  2. European session market participant unable to breach Daily R2, current hourly candle closed below daily R1 level, in my discretionary personal experience, price may attempt to test daily pivot support level.
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Trading Day 36 (19 Sept 2019)

Update on open trade,
19 Sept 2019
0101HR SGT
Symbol : EURNZD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.74523
Target : 1.74169
Stop : 1.75001
(manually closed at 1.74950)

Breakfast

Trade consideration,

  1. Price trading above Ichimoku cloud
  2. Stochastic crossover below 20%

19 Sept 2019
1605HR SGT
Symbol : USDCAD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.04
Open : 1.32866
Target : 1.32916 (hit target) :sweat_smile:
Stop : 1.32749 (edited to 1.32689)

19 Sept 2019
1624HR SGT
Symbol : USDCAD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.32870
Target : 1.33001
Stop : 1.32689 (hit stop)

19 Sept 2019
1624HR SGT
Symbol : USDCAD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.32870
Target : 1.33091
Stop : 1.32689 (hit stop)

Dinner

19 Sept 2019
1833HR SGT
Symbol : AUDUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 0.67900
Target : 0.67829
Stop : 0.68121
(Manually closed at 0.68009)

19 Sept 2019
1833HR SGT
Symbol : AUDUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 0.67900
Target : 0.67749
Stop : 0.68121
(Manually closed at 0.68010)

Trades consideration,

  1. Price on its way to test 61.8% fibo level 0.67600
  2. Price go below Ichimoku cloud level on the daily charts

19 Sept 2019
2119HR SGT
Symbol : AUDUSD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.03
Open : 0.68011
Target : 0.68351
Stop : 0.67799
(Manually closed at 0.67969)

19 Sept 2019
2119HR SGT
Symbol : USDCAD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.03
Open : 1.32683
Target : 1.32449 (hit target)
Stop : 1.32901

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just curious, you don’t cook at all? LOL but nice work keeping up the journal, keep pushing :muscle:t5:

1 Like

Trading Day 37 (20 Sept 2019)

20 Sept 2019
0504HR SGT
Symbol : AUDCAD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.05
Open : 0.90052
Target : 0.89919
(Manually closed at 0.89962)
Stop : 0.90501

Trade consideration,

  1. Price trading below Daily pivot
  2. IMHO look bearish to me

20 Sept 2019
1135HR SGT
Symbol : AUDUSD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.01
Open : 0.67941
Target : 0.68051 (hit target)
Stop : 0.67699

20 Sept 2019
1135HR SGT
Symbol : AUDUSD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.01
Open : 0.67941
Target : 0.68131
(manually closed at 0.68031)
Stop : 0.67699 (edit to 0.67959)

Trade consideration,

  1. Price trading above Ichimoku cloud
  2. Today is Friday, last trading day of the week, profit taking on the horizon

Boring Lunch again

20 Sept 2019
1650HR SGT
Symbol : AUDUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 0.67916
Target : 0.67859 (hit target)
Stop : 0.68121

20 Sept 2019
1650HR SGT
Symbol : AUDUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 0.67916
Target : 0.67789
(Manually closed at 0.67802)
Stop : 0.68121

Trade consideration,
1)Price trading below Ichimoku cloud
2) stochastic crossover 80%

20 Sept 2019
2355HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.24851
Target : 1.24699 (hit targe)
Stop : 1.25301 (edited to 1.25021)

20 Sept 2019
2356HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.24851
Target : 1.24529 (manually closed at 1.24708
Stop : 1.25301 (edited to 1.25021)

Trades consideration,

  1. A Re-test of daily Pivot level had failed at around 1900HR SGT
  2. Price trading below Daily Pivot
  3. Attempt to test Daily S1 level seems to be brewing.

Time to chill! :sunglasses:

A reason to live for

Dinner with my children!! :heart_eyes: This is priceless!!

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Pre-Trade Workup

Monday 23 Sept 2019

There are no High Impact News on Monday. The only movers in view are German’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing . With respect to the forecast, it is a mixed bag of macadamia.

EURNZD was all Bull last week. Market tend to price in ahead of time. Monday’s lackluster Forecast for the Euros may just drive market participant to book profits for the EURNZD pair. A pullback day for EURNZD i suspect.

According to my Currency strength meter version 2. On Friday, EUR did drop from rank 4th to 7th illustrating immediate bearish momentum. Thus, i will be aiming to short EURNZD when market open on Monday.

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Trading Day 38 (23 Sept 2019)

On market open, price gapped down from 1.75020 to 1.74680 . No opportunity for me to short at all. I decided to bet on mean reversion and Long EURNZD instead . A gap is an abnormal move. Over the weekend, there were some trading that continued which was not available for retail traders. IMHO, mean reversion in the act at the moment.

23 Sept 2019
0632HR SGT
Symbol : EURNZD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.02
Open : 1.75848
Target : 1.75901
Stop : 1.75599
(Manually closed at 1.75648)

23 Sept 2019
0822HR SGT
Symbol : EURNZD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.02
Open : 1.75779
Target : 1.75819 (hit target)
Stop : 1.75599

23 Sept 2019
1116HR SGT
Symbol : EURNZD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.04
Open : 1.75651
Target : 1.75549
Stop : 1.75901 (hit stop)

23 Sept 2019
1131R SGT
Symbol : EURNZD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.04
Open : 1.75639
Target : 1.75449
Stop : 1.75901(hit stop)

It seem to me that buyers have given up. I should have stick to my pre trade workup directional bias. Anyway, i’m closing my EURNZD Longs, and doubling down on EURNZD shorts.

Price seem to be gravitating towards Friday’s Higher Low support level at 1.75300. This is a strong support level to watch out for, if a forthcoming reversal play might be in the deck or not .

" Draghi also takes center stage as he is due to testify to the European Parliament where he is expected to emphasize the much needed collaboration between monetary and fiscal policies while reasserting his view of QE as a necessary tool to keep the EU afloat. "
Ivan delgado

Ah ha!! Mario is in the limelight, no wonder EUR is so weak! There is hope for my EURNZD pullback afterall.

7eb

23 Sept 2019
1529R SGT
Symbol : EURNZD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.1
Open : 1.75744
Target : 1.75399
(manually closed at 1.75487)
Stop : 1.75901

A close one :sweat:. Although, 1.75901 never came, still my stop loss was triggered due to widen spread. I manage to put in a 0.1lot EURNZD short trade in the nick of time and get to square off my losses. What a shame it is that my pre trade workup was right, and yet i didn’t get to make more pips.

On hindsight, 1.75300 price level had just been breached. A major support level was broken. A reversal of trend for EURNZD might be on the horizon.

Actually, i’m on sick leave today. I guess i will take my rest now. I had been doing lots of emergency cases over the weekend, and i just did 5th straight week of standby for the hospital as well. I’m exhausted. I need some rest…

Watching my cute one playing BlockCraft. :slightly_smiling_face:

23 Sept 2019
1709HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.04
Open : 1.24403
Target : 1.24299 (hit target)
Stop : 1.24821

Trade considerations,

  1. 1min chart very bearish trajectory
  2. Last week, weekly candle form a doji and a close below mean level suggestive of forthcoming reversal of trend.
  3. On the 1hour chart, a significant HL had been breached at 1.24400, further suggest forthcoming reversal of trend is brewing

23 Sept 2019
2214HR SGT
Symbol : GBPUSD
Action : Long
Lot : 0.04
Open : 1.24185
Target : 1.24301 (hit target)
Stop : 1.24049

Trades consideration,

  1. Momentic indicator blue box showing buy signal
  2. Nonlagdot turns blue also showing buy signal

24 Sept 2019
0033HR SGT
Symbol : EURUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.09897
Target : 1.09829
Stop : 1.10151

24 Sept 2019
0033HR SGT
Symbol : EURUSD
Action : Short
Lot : 0.01
Open : 1.09897
Target : 1.09729
Stop : 1.10151

Trades consideration,

  1. 1hour chart, Momentics red sell box appear with 4 star bearish momentum.
  2. 5min chart, Momentics red sell box appear with 3 star bearish momentum.

IMHO, price seems ready to take the plunge and resume its bearish path. On an afterthought, the nonlagdot in the 5min chart have yet to turn bearish.

2 Likes