Stop loss at breakeven on the EURUSD shorts.
1.05 this week I think.
Other than that…
BTC 80k done.
Next…
The Trump trade going.
This is fundamental analysis.
Almost there on EURUSD.
Starting to trail stop loss in profit.
And still expecting that full 1.05 target to be reached.
Long S&P500.
Bullish engulfing printing on the daily right at higher timeframe support.
That gives me a trigger to enter in the fundamental direction.
Target 6100.
Stop loss at breakeven on the S&P500 longs.
I’m looking for 6050 to be hit this week.
And 6100 next week.
Why?
Trump’s new Treasury Secretary pick.
Bullish.
Again…
Expecting 6100 this week.
But keep in mind…
Stops are already trailed up in profit.
It’s a busy week with Powell and the NFP scheduled.
So things can take a turn if the context changes.
Short AUDNZD into the RBA meeting tonight.
There is a (small but decent) chance the RBA pivots tonight into a MUCH more dovish stance by hinting at the need to start cutting rates soon.
So, two scenarios…
If the RBA pivots tonight, AUDNZD will be near 1.08 before year end.
If it doesn’t, we cut the trade quick tomorrow morning.
That’s a fair risk reward.
Target 1.08
Closing the AUDNZD shorts early here near breakeven.
Will reevaluate whether to short again or not after the data from Australia tonight.
Long EURUSD setting up.
Bullish engulfing printing on the daily chart.
Soft PCE from the US lowers the case for a more hawkish FED ahead.
And on top of that, seasonality is bullish for the next two weeks.
Technicals, fundamentals, and seasonals all aligned.
Target 1.0620.
I’m still long EURUSD.
Equities like the S&P500 have already faded the whole FOMC sell off.
But the Dollar is still lagging behind that flow.
Either way…
Still expecting EURUSD to fade the recent FOMC move.
Question guys.
I’m curious to know YOUR opinion on this.
As you know, the big macro variable ahead is whether Trump rolls out tariffs when he gets in office or not on January 20.
So…
Looking for your thoughts on it.
Tariffs or NO tariffs on Trump’s first day (or first week) in office?
Let me know.
Then will share the outcomes of either two scenarios later on in advance so you can know what to expect in both cases.
Alright guys.
This is BIG macro variable ahead.
Trump has been pledging tariffs on day one of his presidency.
And this matters, A LOT.
For instance, at the start of February USDCAD will either be 1.40 if NO tariffs or small tariffs, or 1.48 if BIG 25% tariff.
Which it’s quite a move, 400 pips either way.
And USDCAD is just one example, the same is true for most Dollar pairs, especially USDCNH, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDMXN, and to some extent EURUSD too.
That creates an opportunity for us traders of course.
If you have any questions feel free to ask.
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Long CADCHF.
Trudeau resigned.
Poilievre (his next likely successor) is MUCH more Trump friendly.
That lowers the likelihood of Trump going hard on tariffs against Canada, bullish CAD.
On top of that…
On the CHF side we’ve got another print of VERY low inflation numbers earlier this morning, bearish CHF.
So…
Bullish CAD story on one side.
Bearish CHF story on the other.
Long CADCHF.
Target 0.6410.
Stop loss moved near breakeven on the CADCHF longs already.
Early but necessary given Trump’s latest comments yesterday.
Starting to trail the stop loss in profit on the CADCHF longs.
Still on track to target, but risks are rising and it will be volatile over the next week with PPI and CPI from the US.
And most of all, January 20 with Trump getting into office.
CADCHF longs trailed out in profit yesterday.
