We have discussed the DXY, and we expect it to slide down for the following week into his next liquidity zone, around 99.
The situation in China has been better, as they opened back their economy this week and allowed transportation again. This has led to an important push in Oil and US Indices.
This strengthens the fundamental short-term movement on the Dollar. Regarding Gold, some move on the upside can be expected as the commodity sector continues its bullish movement, and a hedge against inflation is essential.
We have continued our analysis on the EURUSD, GBPUSD, and NZDUSD.
We will go LIVE again tomorrow @9:00 AM EDT on The5ers YouTube channel
AUD is expected to have another pump up as the RBA prepares themselves for one of the most aggressive hikes seen in years. As we have seen previously, rate hikes have proven a great opportunity for bulls to get into the market when the liquidity arrives. With China moving out of lockdown and positive jobs reports, the AUD is looking strong.
Key Levels:
Resistance 0.72600
Support 0.71600
Trend AUD/USD.
Bullish
Overall trend recently has been to the upside recently with the AUD looking more and more promising given current conditions.
Call to Action/Trade Idea
Wait for a retest on the trend line and a fair value price to enter long on this pair prior to the RBA rate hike decision.
AUD is expected to have another pump up as the analysts expect a 0.1% decrease in unemployment. As we have seen previously, employment data has proven a great opportunity for bulls to get into the market when the liquidity arrives.
JPY missed their manufacturing index early monday morning which shows a continuation of weakness with the currency.
Key Levels:
Resistance 95.4
Support 94
Trend AUD/JPY.
Bullish
Overall trend recently has been to the upside considerably with the JPY proving to be extremely weak.
Call to Action/Trade Idea
Wait for a retest on the demand area and enter long on this pair early in the week.
The Fed continues to hike rates in the USA which usually creates an immense amount of demand for the USD signalling the economy is growing, but as we hike and hike more aggressively, many are starting to realise that when we have reached these high interest rates before, it has resulted in a recession. As time moves forward, the USD is looking less and less appealing.
The CHF on the other hand have hiked rates for the first time since 2015 creating an explosive move. Many investors are starting to look at the CHF as a great opportunity over the next 6 months.
Key Levels:
Resistance 1.000
Support 0.957
Trend USD/CHF.
Sideways
Overall trend recently has been to the upside but has now started to form a sideways channel.
Call to Action/Trade Idea
Wait for a break below recent support, if a clean break is provided, short.
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In today’s trading room, we discussed the dollar flying against other currencies, as we see the DXY reaching a top at 107.00.
Mostly against the European basket, the Dollar remains very strong. As Ruben explained, there are two mains reasons for that:
1 - European economies didn’t start to fight inflation, in opposition to the US, which had already hiked its interest rate several times.
2 - The Dollar remains strong against worldwide inflation and a risk-off environment.
Also, Ruben had an explanation regarding the forecast on Oil. JP Morgan expects the oil price to reach $380 if Russia cuts exportations.
Finally, Ruben discussed several CAD pairs and managed an interesting trade on Gold in a consolidation zone.
In today’s trading room, we have analyzed the Dollar Index (DXY). We highly expect it to be still on an overextended movement and can bring a dip on the downside.
The indices as well have been recovering well from their bottom and are now struggling at an important key zone. Ruben also mentioned that it might be the beginning of the switch between Risk-off and Risk-off environment, as we see Crypto and Oil going up on a short time scale.
Finally, at the end of the session, Ruben made some scalping on the Nasdaq, which had a volatile market opening and led to some opportunities.
In today’s trading room, we have analyzed the Dollar Index (DXY). We highly expect it to be still on an overextended movement and can bring a dip on the downside.
The indices as well have been recovering well from their bottom and are now struggling at an important key zone. Ruben also mentioned that it might be the beginning of the switch between Risk-off and Risk-off environment, as we see Crypto and Oil going up on a short time scale.
Finally, at the end of the session, Ruben made some scalping on the Nasdaq, which had a volatile market opening and led to some opportunities.
In today’s trading room, we continued analyzing the Dollar, which is the top asset to look for during this market period.
At the end of last week, the Dollar depreciated against the other pairs of the basket.
And it may have some space to go. Technically, the DXY arrives in a confluence zone where it can attract some buyers.
Finally, we continued to highlight the negative correlation between the Dollar and capital markets, which may be the continuing switch between risk-off to risk-on period.
In today’s trading room, we analyzed the charts for the upcoming week. We start with the higher time frames and then check the lower time frames to look for intraday opportunities.
We also analyze the relationship between a strong USD and inflation and possible trading opportunities.
Steven has just successfully passed our Level 1. He is now one of The5ers funded traders and is trading with an 80K low-risk funded account on our platform.
His next mission is to reach 10% of profit and double his funds to 160K.
We spoke with Steven about his trading plan, insights, and lessons gained while trading in the Forex market and our platform as a funded trader.
Tell us a little bit about you.
I have been on the trading journey for a couple of years while holding a full-time job.
How long have you been trading?
I have been trading for 9 years, and I am a part-time Trader.
Briefly describe your Trading Plan and how it contributes to your success.
Manage risk and emotions to overcome each psychological obstacle coming my way. Stick to the trading plan and adjust according to market conditions. Eliminate frivolous trades as much as possible.
Please share with us a challenge you faced in your trading career and how you overcame it.
The psychological obstacle was a major challenge. It took about 2 years to overcome it by finding out what helps in tackling the blocker in my journey. These include setting up a conducive trading environment, time of the day that trading works well, agreement with family members to create the space for my pursuit, physical objects as reminders to limit the number of poor trades made, and news platforms subscription that help in understanding the reasons for movement of the market, etc.
How did you adjust risk management to your trading personality?
I set a limit to the contract size and managed it according to my read of the market. If I am wrong for a consecutive number of trades, the size will be reduced to manage risk.
Describe a key moment in your trading career.
I am a trend trader, and there are times that I am unable to pull myself away from the ranging market. The key moment was when I was, for once, able to drag myself away from the trading computer. Later that night, I reflected on my actions for the day and was proud of them.
How long does it take for you to become a consistent trader, and what aspects did you change that helped you to become consistent?
It took me 2 years after a friend and mentor shared a key strategy that worked for me. It took a while for it to stick and for me to execute the strategy like a machine. Naturally, I fine-tuned the strategy for a better fit for my trading personality.
What is your mental/psychological strength, and how did you develop it?
The psychological obstacle is a major challenge for me, and I am still continuing to work on it and understand myself a little better each day. Reflection on my actions every day is one of the key tools to continue the battle. There is never a destination. It is a journey without a finishing line. We only stop if we make a decision not to carry on the journey or if we breathe our last breath.
What was your strategy to successfully pass The5%ers’ First Level?
Stick to the plan. Adjust according to market conditions. Manage risk, expectations, and emotions. If it is not working well for the day, walk away.
How is trading for the5ers different from trading by yourself?
Trading for the5ers provides a platform to constantly monitor my progress to keep me on my toes. Trading by myself gave more room for frivolous trades, and funding by myself is limiting.
What would you recommend to someone who is just starting with us?
Demo trade your strategy until you are sure of what you do. Try again if you fail. No one achieves success from day 1.
Would you like to share anything else with us?
You guys are great!
In today’s trading room, we analyzed the charts for the upcoming week. We start with the higher time frames and then check the lower time frames to look for intraday opportunities.
We also discussed the EURUSD, which again reached parity. The Dollar remains very strong against all the pairs, and especially against the EUR, which is very weak.
Regarding Indices, this should be the end of the summer rally as indicators seem to be in overbought territory.
In today’s trading room, we discussed the large movement in the Dollar last Friday due to the Jackson Hole event. The dollar strengthens again after this event.
However, the other basket currencies tend to fight at the beginning of the week.
We also talked about US indices after the sell-off of Friday. We probably switched from a bearish to a neutral environment.
In today’s trading room, we discussed last week’s news from the ECB by hiking interest rates to fight inflation.
This gave some fresh air to European Indices and the Euro currency.
Also, Ukraine seems to be pushing Russian troops closer to their border and bringing positive expectations for the energy crisis complex to be ended sooner.
Finally, the recent CFTC reports, which indicate the net exposure of all institutional funds, showed strong short contracts in the SP500. This may bring interesting recovery into Indices if we refer historically from it.
In today’s trading room, we discussed the unexpected inflation numbers released last week. It led to the Dollar strengthening and the stock markets tumbling.
After that news, the market slowed down, as usual, after a huge volatility movement.
Also, Oil continued to drop around the $82 per barrel area. This can lead to an interesting opportunity on the USDCAD after these pairs had a long move up.
This week, we expect the FED to increase the increase rate by 0.75 points. But the market may already price it.
In today’s trading room, we discussed the volatile movement of last week in the USD pairs and especially on the GBPUSD.
The GBPUSD has marked a historical low after the announcement of huge tax cuts funded. The GBP has been supported by the BOE and pushed the price 7% up already from its low.
The US markets are still very weak, and we can expect a new low after the continuation of the inflation and recession period.
Finally, Oil has bounced at the beginning of the week after OPEC cut supply, which led the CAD to appreciate.
We will go LIVE again tomorrow @9:00 AM EDT on The5ers YouTube channel
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