Theme for the Week ahead (April22)

No great systems or insights here…

One thing that I try to do is to determine an overall market theme for the week ahead. I look at economic data that might be released and commodity prices and trends. My general theme for this week is not so much a carry trade unwind as a continued JPY strength. I will be looking to lean on the USD/JPY anywhere near 119 and also looking for a small downtrend in GPY/JPY with stops above 239. We could have an exogenous event out of China that really gets the JPY rallying. China has to communicate something to the world abouth their GDP control. Any lip service to this should strengthen the jpy. Still not sure what to do with EUR/USD so I’ll just wait that out. Any ideas?

Good luck out there!

Theme for the week? Expect the unexpected.
What sort of “exogenous event” might come out of China? (other than a GDP type statement?)

My theme for the week, month, year,

Don’t worry, be happy.

Well two big suprises this week, only the later of which matters so much right now.

  1. The S&P upgrade of the JPY (that got things rolling early in the week, but then business as usual)

  2. The renmimbi weakness on friday. Looks like China will continue to do their own thing on their own time table. I bet we could easily see 120+ USD/JPY (JPY will weaken as the the RMB can be tied to it through the components of the… well - blah blah blah…)