First off everything I say is about mechanical systems. The moment we start using discretion we open a whole new can on worms.
What you are saying I think is your negative expectations are causing you to tweak, change or alter your strategy when in a trade?
Clearly if you mean your negative expectations are altering the outcome without you messing with your system - well that is in the realm of quantum physics something I’m not qualified to discuss.
Sometimes it sure feels like the markets are doing the opposite of what we want just to annoy us but I think that’s an illusion.
I think, despite you thinking you are thinking in probabilities you are clearly not.
Let’s say your system has a win rate of 65%. And you’ve just had ten wins in a row, well your system still has a win rate of 65% regardless of the streak.
Previous results do not affect the probability of the next result - something many of us forget
I’m too am as guilty of this when I have a string of loses recency bias starts me thinking I’ll have more.
This can lead to all sorts of tinkering with systems and takes us away from consistency.
When Im talking about thinking in probabilities what I mean is the acceptance that pretty much anything can happen on any one trade - but over a series of them the odds will work out in your favour.
This is discussed in Mark Douglas ‘Trading in the zone’ he talks about trading with a casino like edge.
That is the mentality we need - after a loser, or even winner it’s just ‘next’.
You talk about the news and how it affects your thinking
A big step for me in my trading was when I realised experts are clueless - my system knows best
Then I realised that despite my own opinions - my system knows best.
There are many times I think the market will do one thing, but my system tells me to do the opposite.
You have to get used to ignoring your own opinions - and just follow the system.
This isn’t a problem for me now because I’ve had so many experiences where I was wrong and the system right - but I admit it’s harder when new to trading.