I don’t mind anyone disagreeing with me on this thread, or disagreeing with anyone else for that matter, but please don’t go down the insulting road, there’s enough of that cr*p on this forum as it is and I suspect it’s what drives most of the “good” people away.
So let this be a notice not to one, but to all, there are ways of saying things, all you have to say is that you don’t agree with something and I’m sure that will be acceptable to all.
there’s no need to be insulting
So if you would choose 1 “tool” to use initially, S&R, pivots, moving averages, flying lamp-posts or whatever for the up coming little epxeriment, what would you choose?
I honestly don’t mind whatever we decide on, I’ll use it and post the charts for two weeks then it can be decided, admittedly after only such a short time, if it’s worth pursuing
Probably more than most I’d be interested in hearing what your “1 thing and 1 thing only” would be MasterTang. What would your starting point be? Please don’t think I’m trying to be sarcastic or anything with that, I’m genuinely interested in what you think the first weapon in the armoury should be.
How about no tools, no charts just a simple buy on cable at current price 1.6710
Stop loss … (not really needed, leave that up to someone else, Target … open ended)
Re-assess at 10.00 gmt this Wed.
Now that’s as simple as it can get 
[QUOTE=“peterma;603492”]How about no tools, no charts just a simple buy on cable at current price 1.6710 Stop loss … (not really needed, leave that up to someone else, Target … open ended) Re-assess at 10.00 gmt this Wed. Now that’s as simple as it can get :)[/QUOTE]
Tell us why, otherwise it’s not very useful. What is your decision to buy based on? If it’s just a hunch, i don’t see where it could take us.
Should I put in the pending order now? 
But you only say that because you know something about forex peterma. If you were learning, if you were just starting out and knew nothing why would you do that?
Sure cable is on the up and up, actually looks as thought there is nothing to stop it going to 1.70 ('cept possible pause around 1-68700) but again that’s only because there exists a very basic knowledge.
But think back when you looked at a chart for the first time, try to put yourself in that position again and think to yourself, “What 1 thing do I wish I knew back then?”
And you’re not allowed to choose this weekend’s lottery numbers, although I do wish I’d known them then
Very very smart.maybe is better to expect a breakout of eur/ usd market have been waiting all day long now for that breakout
Oh oo, just after opening the cable chart … is that a huge pin bar on the daily (gmt chart) that is staring at me?.
Digging out my TA book to see if this is bearish or bullish, now it gets really interesting.
Will give my reasons when I finish this cuppa.
I’m seeing a rather large engulfing on the daily right now mate, no grey area as to the bullish/bearish intention here:
GBP - UK economy outlook is positive, this note released at 10.32 on 12th this month is significant in that it refers to the future, is probably conservative and will maintain a pressure on upward interest rates:
“BoE Raises 2014 UK Economic growth forecast to 3.4% from 2.8%.”
The next data this Wed is unemployment, any drop there will add more fuel, so question is will there be a drop?
Also the vote count on rates, Carney is only one of 9, anything other than 0 0 9 will add that fuel.
Back to unemployment, yeah when reading the thread my gut (i.e. no research) was saying at exp level or less, just now I read this:
Fewer UK firms plan on hiring new staff, CIPD survey shows - Ifa Magazine
(pin bar, pin bar, told you so)
So back to the gut (now that I have had my tea), Job vacancies for Nov…increased, Claimant count for Dec …Down, long term unemployment 3rd qtr 2013…down (this is an important one) Latest number (Oct) for youth unemployment …down.
That’s the labour numbers, Lol, I know Mack has a colourful opinion on those :).
Then more importantly, how is business? …that so often asked question.
Confidence is down , that’s a minus (it comes from the CBI who are diligent in their surveying)
Bankruptcies are down, manufacturing pmi down (maybe not so important nowadays), Zew sentiment down, imports down but exports up.
Retail sales up as we know (for Dec) and if you have the sales you need the sales assistants.
I digest the above info (back to the gut again) and yes there is a risk that there may be a small increase in unemployment, but I reason that that will be for next month, so bullish GBP.
Now I’ll leave you guys to figure the USD outlook, and no excuses about snow or frost
Yes, got the answer in my book, it seems that a few others have the same book
Foreign Exchange Positions | Forex Open Position Ratios | OANDA fxTrade
will get back to this as soon as possible, youngest kids birthday today, family at home just now. Bloody relatives !!!
Lol, I was saying Carney is only one, at the same time this is released:
UK housing not overheating, rates not at lows forever - BoE’s Miles | Reuters
[QUOTE=“peterma;603546”] Yes, got the answer in my book, it seems that a few others have the same book Foreign Exchange Positions | Forex Open Position Ratios | OANDA fxTrade[/QUOTE]
I’m also long for the week since last night, but I’ve ignored the news.
Simply because price is clearly heading UP (on daily and weekly). Now that’s truly simple.
I’m also ignoring today’s pin bar and the overwhelmingly bearish crowd.
Stage is set, let’s see
I’m just wondering if “colourful” is the right word to describe my views on that peterma.
Personally I would choose to describe those figures as an out and out fu**ing lie, or “adjusted” as the politicians say.
As for “business”, what feckin business? We have none, no manufacturing business anyway. We are a nation that manufactures sweet FA nowadays. Sold off our industry, closed down our car industry, sold everything that wasn’t nailed down, scrapped apprenticeships and threw 3 or 4, possibly 5 future generations on the rubbish heap.
The improving UK economy is nothing short of propaganda, it’s a lie, it’s a fabrication, it doesn’t exist. What DOES exist is election year next year and it wouldn’t do for the bullshi**ers in Westminster to come out and say, “Well actually, this whole thing is a fuc*ing mess.”
But that’s exactly what it is and it WILL be found out, probably when the child from the Emperors New Clothes story turns round to his mum in public and shouts, “Hey Mum, why does it say FOODBANK above the entrance to the supermarket?”
And there’s your next recession right there.
Our government must be down on their knees every night right now just praying for an earthquake or a volcano erupting somewhere half way round the world in Indisbogastan so they can send the usual 15 planes loaded with money, after all, it’ll save them giving that money to the UK residents whose entire lives are submerged under 6 foot of water in the South of England right now.
You see, there you go, see what you’ve started?
Anyway since GU seems to be the topic of conversation right now, what say ye we use that same pair to ‘monitor’ for the next two weeks starting 10pm GMT tonight, instead of waiting 'til the start of the new week?
I reckon the most basic thing to start with is Support and Resistance, coupled with the potential landmines contained within the daily economic calender. Which I know is technically two things and I did say “1 thing and 1 thing only”, but hey ho !!
No in fact, y’know what? Bugger the economic calender for I suppose that is part of the learning curve. Close of play tonight, 10pm GMT I’ll post a daily (or possibly 4 Hour ) GU chart with a few S&R points on it. I’ll explain why I have marked those points and if price does blow through any of them I’ll go on the hunt to see if I can find out why, which in turn may lead to the economic calender.
If I can find an economic report which has caused a move through a level then I’ll mark it for the future as a report which has the potential to move things.
Ok so here we go.
below is a daily chart of GBP/USD going back to 2009. Taking what we already know, or think we know, and throwing out of the window, all we can tell at this point is this.
Today’s close was approx 1-6712 on the bid price. I have marked 4 lines on the chart (Resistance in yellow dotted lines) where price has went up to in the past and then turned around. These 4 levels are…
5th Aug 2009 High at 1-7041
16th Nov 2009 High at 1-6877
17th Feb 2014 High at 1-6824 (today)
**28th Apr 2011 High at 1-6742
** Just in case you are wondering why I have kept the 28th Apr 2011 High of 1-6742 as a resistance line even though today’s price went 80 ish pips above it, well it’s because today’s price still closed BELOW that high which may or may not represent a rejection.
Those then are the 4 lines of RESISTANCE I’m watching.
I have also marked 3 Blue dotted lines on the chart, these will act as the levels of SUPPORT I’ll be watching. They are…
24th Jan 2014 High at 1-6667
28th Jan 2014 and 19th Aug 2011 High at 1-6616
2nd Jan 2014 High at 1-66.
These 7 levels are the nearest significant levels to current price as far as I can see on a DAILY chart.
Now, let’s be clear, other people may see the charts differently from what I have noted above and that is absolutely fine with me as long as we discuss the rights and wrongs of it instead of getting into the usual babypips D*ck measuring competition or slanging match.
If you disagree then fine, just make sure the comments you make ADD something to the conversation. If you don’t like what I’m doing here then that’s fine also, don’t make any comment at all.
But if you DO want to keep an eye on it with me and feel like making a comment remember you’re ONLY allowed to comment on SUPPORT and RESISTANCE levels, at this point we know NOTHING ELSE.
No flying lamp-posts, no wombat dooflehanger crossover overbought malarkies. SUPPORT and RESISTANCE only, possible levels and validity if any at all.
I shall update these pictures at the very least every night at 10 pm GMT for the next two weeks.
So I suppose the first question to ask, now that we have these levels is what are we going to do with them? Is it reasonable to assume that if price reaches them again it will stand a fair chance of reacting the same way again?
Would we automatically put buy/sell orders at those levels? That’s a tough one when you consider the case of the 28th Apr 2011 high of 1-6742 that price went 80 odd pips above today before closing below it again. Surely those 80 pips would have taken many a new comer out of the game?
So what do we do? Do we simply watch? Do we place orders? Or. since it’s only being played out on a demo account just now anyway, does it even matter if we do one/the other or both?
EDIT: Incidentally, and absolutely nothing to do with trading, but I bought a new book at the weekend, The Richest Man In Babylon. Fantastic little book, highly recommend it.
Lines. Sometimes horizontal, sometimes diagonal.
Just plain, easy to draw lines. The chart tells me where to draw them, numbers don’t matter as a rule, but I do like to pay attention to the whole numbers.
So what happened to this then?