pipdawkter, sorry for hijacking this thread T_T I’ll keep my charts to myself from here on out.
TURBONero, I’m going to get a copy of that book and take myself one step further up the ladder, thank you.
No worries gomack.
So no updates on on GBP/USD short at this time. As you can see in the chart, price is currently going down nicely. 112 pips profit which is in the range of 4.5% account gain off of the 3% risk. I have yet to move my SL to break even, but that will probably happen soon. Furthermore, I removed my TP which was initially at about +170 pips. I may see what happens if price is able to make it down to support at 1.4585 to see if price can break through it to give me even bigger gains. Will keep my position updated
Also, unfortunately (since I missed the entry) the NZD/USD trade I discussed at the beginning of this thread is playing out well at the moment. O well, there will be other opportunities
Stop loss has been moved to break even. Sitting at about +140 pips in profit right now. Will probably close trade prior to NFP on Friday as it is just a guess as to which way price will go after that release
Trade was closed earlier today in preparation of NFP. Gained 215 pips for a little over 9% gain on account. Will post chart with additional details later
pipdawkter how long have been trading forex? It’s refreshing to see a focus on the long term rather than intraday. When you enter a trade how much of stop loss do you initially set beyond your support/resistance lines?
I have been trading off and on a few years. My stop loss is not placed at support resistance lines. It is placed above/below certain candles depending on what the charts look like. It can be anywhere from around 25 pips to 100 pips usually. The % risk is always the same though. Lets take a look at the chart I am posting. Unfortunately I couldn’t figure out how to put arrows on my chart to make the explanation easier to understand, but hopefully y’all are able to follow what I am saying.
You can see the downward trending channel that triggered my entry. For more info on the entry refer to the previous chart posted in an earlier post at the time I entered the trade. But to answer your question about stop loss…the stop loss is placed just above the candle that triggered my trade. So this trade was played as a break out of the channel. So you see the large red candle that broke out of the channel. The stop loss was placed at the top of this candle. You can see on the next candle, price went back up through the channel line, but did not make it all the way to the stop loss. If I had just placed the stop loss at the channel line, I would have been stopped out.
Concerning the exit, my exit was at about 1.4550 which occurred on Thursday (the second to last candle). I got out because of the NFP was the next day and it would of just been a gamble to stay in. That last candle could of just as easily been a big blue candle if the NFP had been bad. Plus I should of been thinking of profits at that point anyway since price was right at that support line that I have drawn at the bottom of the chart.
Now it appears with the good NFP results, price has broken through that support line. I may look for an additional entry to go short. The stop loss would be just above that last candle on the chart (because it is the candle that is triggering my entry). Because that candle is over a 100 pips, if I just entered at the open of the markets next week, my SL would be like a 100 pips and then that would mean I would need ALOT of pips to have a good R:R. What I would do hear is set my entry to go short about half way up the last red candle. The stop loss will stay the same. This will make the SL about 50 pips. Remember, I am risking 3%. So if a loss of 50 pips is 3%, then a gain of 50 pips is +3% to my account. I much rather have to gain only 50 pips to get 3% gain than have to gain 100 pips for the 3% gain. In my experience, quite often price will retrace back, before continuing on. It happened for my entry into this previous trade and hopefully it will happen again.
If I enter, I will post the entry.
Earlier you said you were a price/action trader. Are candles apart of price action trading? My candle interpretation is substandard, I know a little bit, but not enough to give it a genuine assessment whether they provide “probable signals” However, Support/Resistance lines, trend lines, combined with recognized patterns is price action trading? Support/Resistance is a danger zone and the market can go either way, trading beyond these lines is hope/gambling unless based on some fundamentals. I don’t know what I have said is accurate, if not, I invite correction.
I am not exactly sure what your asking. But yes, I consider my trading to be a price action method and as far as I understand candles are a part of price action trading. I use the combination of support/resistance lines, Fibonacci retracements, and candlesticks patterns for entries. I also try to stay up to date on fundamentals.
In order to trade this method, you must be familiar with candle stick interpretation. I scan charts daily looking to see if price is near my support/resistance lines. If so, then the chart is watched closely to see if an entry signal (the candle stick pattern) occurs. Entry signals can occur on daily candlesticks or even lower time frames. I will sometimes take entries off of candle stick patterns that form on the 4hr charts. That is the lowest time frame I will go. I do not just go short once price hits a resistance line or vice versa. I hope that clarifies things a little.
There are a couple good price action threads on the forum that have hundreds of pages of good information to learn price action from the ground up. I have taken price action and have put my own spin on things that are based on experience from trading. Once you start trading price action and making trades, you will get your own feel for things that work and things that don’t.
This is a good thread, even if i started out bad and made a bad analysis which showed very fast that i was wrong id like to contribute a new point for the next week.
Dow Jones:
Where/when will it turn? Point 1, 2 or 3?
Possible incomming for a long position over few days. Possible pip/points count 800 Pips on the first position.
For the sake of simplicty i have removed all elements from the chart which are not of any use anymore after the analysis is done.
Give your bets where it will turn, the target is 16900 Points for the dow jones.
The highest probability of turning is between Resistance 2 and Resistance 3 (between 16080 and 16190)
Target: minimum 16900.
I know the topic is forex, but i want to contribute a good position for profit, no matter if forex or something else = profit is profit.
With some good knowledge of how to enter the market and leverage you can make some good chunck on money here. - up to 2500 points/pips if you are an advanced expert in leverage.
Of course, IF it turns at all.
Disclamer: Those ideas, points and resistances are POSSIBLE turning points, it does not mean that it will turn at them for sure.
If one is to be successful, YOU MUST have your own identity. Eventually, Mr guru will pull you in and ask for money. Maybe he/she is profitable, but I want to be profitable on my terms.
Unfortunatelyi did not manage to enter the trade in perfect timing as i was asleep at the time it hit the predicted zones.
I will wait for a retest of the lows and then enter.
Actual low was 16176
Retest of low is on its way. In the evening I expect the dow higher. creating a pinbar which will point into the new direction, which is up.
Minimum target of long position: 16900.
This all is in a very early phaze, it still can be that the down continues down. Watching the fundamental, other calculations etc my opinion is 95% sure it turns right here right today.
I am fine if other people post their own setups, whether it be Forex or something else.
Here is my next entry. I’m sticking with GBP/USD sell as we had a breakout candle through a support line. You can see in the zoomed out picture that this support line was drawn from quite a while ago. Price had not been this low in quite a while. You can also see from the zoomed in chart, where I entered the trade and where the stop loss is. A safer play would of been an entry about 10 pips below the bearish red candle, but then the stop loss would have been around 140+ pips in order to keep the stop loss above the bearish red candle. That is why I placed my entry about half way up the bearish candle. Now my SL is only 65 pips. Price went up and triggered my entry, and has now started to come down. Lets hope it continues down.
You can’t see where my take profit line is in the picture, but it is about 250 pips profit or so I believe. I may change this over the next couple days and will update the thread if I do. So I risked 3% with a Stop loss of 65 pips. So if I gained 250 pips, then it would be almost a 1:4 RR, and I would get just under 12%. Technically 65 x 4 is 260. So, just 10 pips shy of 12%. In comparison to if I went with the safer entry with the 140 pip stop loss. In this scenario, it would take 280 pips just to get a 1:2 RR. That is why I like playing the entries half way up the break out candle such as I did here
O, and one more piece of info. I think this is kind of interesting. My account is with FXCM and I look at their dailyfx website sometimes. They have an indicator called the SSI. Now I don’t use any indicators really as you can see from my charts, but this one is kind of interesting. It tells you what % of FXCM traders are short and long current pairs. I guess you could make an assumption that if FXCM traders are 80% short the EUR/USD then probably all traders are short around 80% the EUR/USD, although there really is no way to know. FXCM is just a small sample of the entire trading population. But anyways, since I entered the GBP/USD last week, the majority of traders on that pair were long (It was like 78% long and 22% short to start last week). This would tell you that most likely price will go down as the % begins to move back toward 50/50. Currently, the numbers stand at I think 72% long and 28% short. So this is still a bullish signal. Again, I don’t even have a rule for looking at this indicator and it doesn’t really affect whether I enter trades currently, but it is something I will continue to monitor to see if I can get an advantage in my trading from it. It is updated every day. But I am not positive on this, but if you don’t have an account with fXCM, you might only be able to see the weekly update which is on thursdays
Hi Pipdawkter,
You might be interested to know that FXCM recently updated the format of our DailyFX research website. The new Sentiment page shows the real time SSI for five popular currency pairs and gold.
Thanks Jason
Stop loss has been moved to break even. Woke up this morning to the trade being 160 pips in profit. Thats about 7.5% gain to account if I exited trade now. Will stay in and let it run some more. Target is about 250 pips
Short rewie of the trade:
Theory:
Reversal points of dow jones. One of these 3 lines will be the reversal point we dont know yet which one. Best bet is between line 2 and line 3
Resersal points have been met. if trade yet not entered, wait for retest.
The reversal is still not complete
Retest of low is about to happen (now its important it reverses in the same area again and goes up:
Retest happened, now its important to find a good spot to enter. i choosed this exact position to enter:
Holding onto this trade till 16900 points minimum. from now on adding to the position every few hours plus till 16900 points are reached, from there on no more adding, only watching how high it wil go.
Todays result so far: 240 points/pips so far.
edit: sitenote: what will happen from here on is that good news will trigger advances in the dow, bad news will have no influence and will be ignored if its minor bad news, if its relative important bad news the dow will stand still for a hour or two and continue up. only major bad news (like a war somewhere or extremely bad datas) will cause a reversal. so no need to watch news at al, they barely have any impact on the trade at all.
Edit 2: actual points count 530 points plus.
and thank you pipdawkter for letting me post here. i didnt want to open a new thred only because of one trade i meant to show, and your thread here is really good and the topic fitted quite well.
another note id like to add to this trade. if you enter more positions or reenter then try to do so at the end of the asian session, as the overalll sentiment in asia is very bearish, the drawbacks will be over night in asia and the push ups in europe/usa times. USA/Europe sentiment is very bullish since years, and especially european session gives a high boost to the dow/dax/cac/ftse etc. as the european QE is still active till 2017 theres no other direction then up (except short term pullbacks)