Today sees the release of this month’s NFP data. The NFP is compiled and released by the US Dept of Labor.
We accept the independence and integrity of such processes without (much) question.
But that also used to be the case with the Federal Reserve. But the present administration is not averse to criticising its actions and even commenting on the President’s ability to sack the Chairman if he felt like it.
We are already accustomed to a process where the concept of “Truth” is changing from an absolute and objective value of what actually “is” to a conditioned and subjective value of what "it should be and therefore is".
Is it therefore possible that at some stage the calculation of releases like the NFP will be amended to include a corrective “T” factor? Where"T" is an index applied to the final result derived from the traditional calculation method to “correct” it from what “is” to what “should be and therefore is”.
In other words, start the process from the other end. Decide what the outcome should be, then apply the appropriate “T” factor value so that the reversed formula produces the value of the input data.
An additional enhancement of such a “T” factor would also include the conversion of the output to an absolute value (ABS)which removes any “incorrect” preceding minus.
I do not seriously consider that such a process is in existence, but the temptation must be there, and the divide between fact and fiction is ever more vague and seen through an ever more dark glass…
If the markets ever come to doubt the independence, accuracy and integrity of such data, where will be?