Through the glass darkly

The Lobby
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Having had my “other” thread content trashed I decided to start this one anew but this time under “Lobby” so that anything goes!

Why this title? Because, as one guy says, " We all interpret things differently, so though I interpret this one way, another may see it as something totally different" there we have it!

This thread is just anything. Some trades, some thoughts, some photos, some anything! It just is…

Like now, I took a spontaneous look at the US2000 chart, just browsing,liked it, went long and there it was, a hundred pips. Could have been more but so what? Its a dark glass:

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There we are with all the top 20 lords of our universe gathered in Osaka deciding how to share our world between them - and how to shaft each other. But what is really important? Is it whether we have liberalism or populism, or whether we are millionaires or asylum seekers - or is it just that we have a safe world, good health and enough money to get by with?

I don’t know. But I do wonder why so many politicians, already in their 70’s, with maybe 10 years max left in the real world, are so busy fighting for political power instead of just taking it easy and enjoying what the world has to offer.

This little guy is not so concerned with the G20 - or even OPEC come to that…

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Money is not a motivator nor a meaning of life. But a lack of it is certainly an inhibitor. A peaceful mind and good health, simple things, not always achievable but certainly worth the effort - and not things that a million dollars can guarantee - even if one is a “great and powerful” politician…

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Crude Oil has held up remarkably well throughout this week. Talk was that the market had moved its focus away from Iran and military conflict towards the G20 and prospects of positive moves in the trade wars - or not. And if we add to that the OPEC+ meetings coming straight on top of the G20 next Mon/Tues, then one could be forgiven for thinking we would see a sell-off prior to the weekend.

That had not appeared to be happening so far today - but are we seeing something like that now towards the day’s end?

Maybe, and with good reason with so much uncertainty around these meetings. But whatever the outcome of these talks, the Iran issue has not gone away and we can still see support in oil prices next week.

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I am still keen on the GBPUSD longer term trade, but it has turned neutral on the short term charts so I am waiting before re-entering there.

The US equities are also very interesting at the moment, but I have no view on that until we see what comments rise from the G20 ashes tomorrow.

With Merkel, May, Tusk and Junckers reduced to bark rather than bite, it will be important to see whose influential smoke is seen rising highest from the chimneys of power.

Either way, June is done. It was a somewhat tricky month but finished nicely black. It really reinforced my opinion (through the dark glass) that the proverbial “10 pips with 10 lots is far easier than 100 pips with one lot” No need to look for the whole move - just get a big bite out of the middle with a chunky sized position. Less time in the market, less risk of a crash out, less risk of a black swan - just make sure the entry signal is top quality and disregard the rest.

A peaceful weekend to all

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And here’s a quick “PS”

We broke last week’s highs on Tuesday and spent the rest of the week slowly grinding higher - and then we give it all back in the last 4 hours of the week! - back to last week’s high and maybe even back to the close. The long term trader has gained nothing on the week.

Oh so often we see the trend gaining slowly as more join in (people going from no position to a position) - but the exit is a million times more swift as everyone with a position exits at the same time. That is one reason why TA methods based on MA crossovers do not work - the rate of exit is so much faster than the rate of entry - interesting!

It was also interesting to note that the return to “neutral” on the week was also reflected in the return of the RSI to the 50 line. Whilst it is always rewarding to see one’s charting indicate the moves, it is also reassuring when the same method reflects a market in neutral. It kind of justifies its relevance and validity.

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The BIG, the BAD and the UGLY

The BIG:
As if there is not enough going on over this weekend and Mon/Tues, The EU chose to announce the completion of what EU Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker described as “the EU’s biggest deal to date”. Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro said it was “historic” and “one of the most important trade deals of all time”.

This deal is between the EU and the South American trade bloc, Mercosur. Mercosur currently comprises four Sth American countries: Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay and Paraguay and covers the vast majority of South American economies.

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In deep contrast to the current protectionist approach being pushed, even bullied, upon the world by the US administration, this deal is aimed at extending a market for goods and services by cutting or removing trade tariffs, making imported products cheaper for consumers, and boosting exports on both sides.

This deal covers a market comprising nearly 800 million consumers, which apparently makes it the largest deal in the world in terms of the total population of the member countries.

Interesting that this deal has actually taken 20 years to complete! I am sure this is a great satisfaction for Mr Junckers, who is retiring from his position in the EU. But is this BIG news also GOOD news?

Well I guess many will say it is a great boost to the principles of free trade in the current trade war environment. And certainly supporters of the EU and the Euro will be greatly relieved and inspired, but will the environmentalists see greatly increased trade volumes between the Sth American continent and the European continent as “good”? There are always two sides to everything and that is why I headed this one “the BIG” and not “the GOOD”!

The BAD:
This is reserved for the outcome of today’s US/China trade talks. I doubt anyone is truly expecting anything concrete today, but since the trade negotiator teams from both sides have already been meeting for a couple of days, it is highly unlikely that Mr Trump and Mr Xi Jinping would have agreed to meet if it were already clear beforehand that they would have nothing to say at the end of their talks. At least, the US equities markets seemed to think the same and finished on an optimistic note yesterday in spite of the risk with closed markets over the weekend:

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However, whatever the outcome of the talks, it will either be bad news for the market or bad news for one or other of the parties involved - but could it really be good news all round? We will know that next week!

The UGLY:

Amidst all the G20 and OPEC+ hype, one other important meeting seemed to get overlooked. Iran officials met with representatives of the remaining 5 parties to the nuclear accord that Mr Trump withdrew from. These countries are Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia.

But Iran stated that there was insufficient progress to persuade Iran to back off from its plans to breach the limit for enriched uranium included in the agreement.

Iran is clearly hoping to put pressure on the parties to influence the US to relax sanctions in order to give hope to new negotiations starting. This is very unlikely to happen and the situation as it stands is likely to get even more ugly than it already is.

The new EU mechanism, INSTEX, is apparently now up and ready (designed to allow companies to bypass US sanctions) but there is little interest in using it for anything other than acceptable trades such as medicines. Even China has refused to comment whether it is prepared to ignore US sanctions on oil purchases from Iran.

This is one area that badly needs a solution and a return to negotiating before anything serious and irrevocable happens - an “UGLY” situation indeed…

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So Mr Trump and Mr Jinping have agreed to resume talks. Mr Trump has postponed applying additional tariffs and Mr Jinping has agreed to buy more agricultural stuff - is that it???

The G20 communique says:

“We strive to realize a free, fair, nondiscriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable trade and investment environment, and to keep our markets open”

What??? Where were the US, China and Russia when they put that one together! But I guess the key word here is “strive” - in the parlance of G20 I guess that means “dream” or “pretend” rather than “genuinely try and achieve” :thinking:

But I guess it will all keep the markets happy since we were not really expecting much else anyway…the essence being that it is good news because it is not bad news…:persevere:

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I know here at home the US farmers aren’t very happy with trade positions/actions of the administration with the expception of the garlic farmer who supplies a huge % of the industry’s output (approx 30% I believe). In an interview he specifically said that he is most likely one of the few farmers benefitting from the tariffs.

Understanding that establishing international trade relationships is a long term endeavor, I don’t see why the rest of the global community (perhaps they are) aren’t looking to put similar deals together, bypassing the US. While the US is the muscle car of economies, muscle cars have been replaced by smaller, faster, more efficient technology.

“Who, can buy what, for how much and how many buyers are there?” All the buyers aren’t in the U.S.

I know that this may sound naive but it’s about making the overall numbers work.

KC

BTW I am happy to scrub clean my non-oil posts. I realized I got a bit “carried away”! Sorry.

KC

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Trump brakes the door open, then the rest goes in after him with no effort.

Let trump handle china then the rest will do the same after the hardest work has been done.

Trade wars are bad. Sure. Yes. But the way china has been playing the past 10 years is worse. If someone doesnt play by the rules then either make him play by the rules or exclude him from the game.

I support that.

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I think Marcus Aurelius and King George tried this.

“They” can always take their ball and go home and play with the other neighbors.

KC

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I’ve got garlics growing at the end of our garden! :smiley:

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I think they are - such as the big EU deal with Mercosur mentioned above. And I am sure that the UK will be looking to enhance deals with other commonwealth countries as well as with the US. India is making energy deals with Russia and Turkey is buying its missile defence systems from Russia (unless the US bans their access to more US fighter jets). THe EU is also buying more gas from Russia via the Nordstream 2 pipeline (which the US is also trying to stop).

But no-one wants their economies hampered by sanctions and tariffs and therefore there is a strong reluctance to get on the wrong side of the US in its present form.

I agree with you totally in principle, I just don’t like the attitude of “if I don’t like an agreement then I just walk away from it”. Nor do I like the approach of beating your opponent to a pulp then dump him on the other side of the “negotiating” table and tell him what he has to do.

I recently watched a documentary about China and I was quite stunned by the gradual infiltration of other countries and facilities - the new SIlk Way.

I do not feel comfortable with the idea of a globe dominated by China any more than by Russia. But how can one feel comfortable with a Mr Trump administration either when one never knows who he is going to turn against next.

And then there is the US National Debt - an Achilles heel or the price of security?

In a broad sense, I also agree with Mr Trump that the US has taken an overly large portion of the international burden and it is only right that all other countries pay their way. But do we really have to put everything right at the same time and throw the entire globe into a state of uncertainty and risk a spiral into recession that will affect adversely everyone - including the US?

Both Russia and China have very long term objectives and, as Xi Jinping has already hinted at, they can sit out the next 5 years max of Trumpism and get back on track with the next regime. Five years is nothing but a blink of the eyelid in the relentless and determined march towards global dominance.

There was no problem there at all!!!

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Its Sunday and time to look at expectations for a new week and, this time, a new month, too.

But I am going to come back to that later. Right now, I was interested to wake up and read that Donald Trump and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un will be meeting, albeit briefly, later today in the DMZ.

I am probably barking up the wrong tree here, but I find this quite significant right now. I mean, before G20 Xi Jinping meets Kim, Trump writes another “love letter” to Kim, Trump meets Jinping at G20, Trump arranges an “off-the-cuff, just passing by handshake” meeting with Kim.

At this level, people don’t just “drop in” on one another, especially the US President - and especially not into the back yard of a potential enemy!. The security arrangements are horrific! There are things going on behind the scenes here, I am sure.

But I am also pretty sure that these are good things from a global perspective. Mr Trump is seeking the fruits of his 3 years of labour as his election run-up gets under way.

Although China has warned that there is still much to do regarding the trade wars and that it will still require a lot of time, the machinery is rolling again. And a relieving of sanctions against North Korea in exchange for some concrete denuclearisation actions is very quick to implement.

So there is still Iran - a big problem. But the US has already defused some possible military retaliations from Iran by pointing out that its own oil supplies are no longer dependent on supplies from the Gulf. In other words, if Iran were to carry out its threatened blockade of the Hormuz Strait, it would hit the likes of China and India, but not the US. As Mr Trump has said, the US does not even need to be present in the Hormuz Strait and others should be looking after their own oil supplies there. However, we all know that the US is militarily there for reasons other than its oil supplies.

Shale oil has made the US the world’s largest oil producer as well as being the world’s largest consumer of oil and oil products. But shale is a light oil and the US refineries also need a lot of heavy crude that needs to be imported. However, that need is substantially covered by imports from Canada and Mexico - and will also be supplemented with supplies from Venezuela once that situation is eventually settled and begins rebuilding.

However, there is still one big problem looming this week regarding Iran. They met last week with the other 5 powers that are still party to the nuclear accord, that the US pulled out from, and with no results. They have also stated that they will be deliberately exceeding the permitted levels of enriched uranium already this week. So what happens if they do not back down and exceed these limits? How will the UK, France, Germany, China and Russia react to this breach of the accord?

So what to expect from markets in the coming week? I will add my thoughts later. If anyone wants to add their thoughts, then please do! :smiley:

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Yeh well. I am busy watching it myself live right now.

It would absolutely do my head in to go through all this crap when I just wanted to pop in somewhere to say “hello”.

It’s actually pathetic.

Oh well there you go. They’re stepping backwards and forwards over the line now.

Never ever thought I’d compliment Big Red there but hats off to him actually.

Good ‘ol Kimmy there has a certain endearing quality I have to say.

Actually: hats off to both of them.

Kimmy doesn’t have it easy either you know. Anybody with even the slightest interest in this stuff would know that he was thrown into the deep end i.e. it wasn’t a job of his choosing. And he sure has grown in his role since his early years.

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I was also just reading a report about the meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, from the BBC - and I don’t know whether this was just a funny coincidence or actually a deliberate and rather nasty (albeit childish) political statement, but look at the advertisement that popped up in the middle of the article under the heading "What happened at the DMZ?"

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The world has become a very uncertain place nowadays - you never know what is behind what is put in front of you - and who is controlling the process! For this very reason I do not subscribe to any social media apps whatsoever!

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The possibility is a promise of great benefits from Trump in exchange for the “claim of progess and pending success” with appropriate photo opps soon to be followed by the claim of “Greatest” negotiator in history.

KC

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:grin: But let’s face it, IF (such a big “if”) he brings China under control, denuclearizes Nth Korea and brings it into the “free world”, rids the world of the terrorist risk from Iran, mends the US trade deficit such that the national debt comes under control, secures the southern border, makes the US self-sufficient and a net exporter in energy supplies, then one could argue that maybe he is a great negotiator - its just the way he goes about it that irks.

At the end of the day, we have to remember that the US presidency is an institution, so the question is how we evaluate Trump the President rather than Trump the person (not that it makes the slightest bit of difference what any of us think about that! :smiley: )

Back to this point, I just read that the EU has also just signed a free trade deal with Vietnam - the first with a developing country in Asia. The aim is to reduce/exclude nearly all tariffs between the EU and Vietnam. So we are trying!! :joy:

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Yes. This is true and I am will to “give the devil due” As Charlie Daniels sings - :laughing:

And if the big “IF” comes to pass so will the mantle of the “Greatest Communicator”!

KC

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My understaning is we can talk about anything here? Yes?

@Jerome32 recently posted a synopsis of his indicator journey over the last 20 months. It’s honest and very enlightening! Every beginner should read it.

https://f.bpcdn.co/original/3X/2/4/246f92e3c559441b7ddc151e667fead8439d528d.png

KC

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Well, yes, the idea here being that nothing is an absolute in this world and we all see everything in varying degrees of through a “dark glass”, i, i.e. we all have biases and none of us have the whole picture - so there is no reason to describe this thread or its contents as useless or meaningless - since it already is by its definition! :joy:

Having said that, I am hoping to keep a line that is mainly trading-based and not just “anything”.

Did you mean to post that link? All I got when I opened it was a blinding flash of colours from a chart shot! No synopsis - or am I missing the point here?

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I was thinking the same thing

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@anon46773462 @eddieb

I was trying to post a link to his last post of his thread. Not just the chart.

KC

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OK, I’ll go walkies over there, I don’t recall that I have ever been there before…