I just shorted GBPCAD, I rather that you are right than MrDE
To be honest, @alphahavoc, if you are seeking your normal target pips (around 20-40 pips?) Then i think it is more likely to succeed from the “lady luck” input than anything I and @MrDE might be suggesting! 
I just took a look at that pair. Not one that I ever consider. It seems you are looking for a reversal if you have shorted it? I think you are very brave with shorting this one yet considering the 15m chart - but this is just my way of looking at things! 
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Well, i think Mr De has a point. Furthermore, Trump is so capricious to the point, that he can change his mind without any formal notice by tweeting, just like the snap of his fingers with the Power Gaunlet. Who knows? Oil price may rise 20% the very next day.
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There are a couple of great books about the US stock market insiders written by Richard Ney.
He did some excellent research and writing.
I don’t know if it is still is 100% applicable given the computerized high freq. trading.
Would still highly recommend both books.
KC
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“Saudi Arabia’s oil production is fully back online after the attacks and the kingdom will achieve 11 million barrels per day (bpd) capacity by the end of September and 12 million bpd by the end of November, the energy minister said on Tuesday.” 
I dont like to say it but; told ya 
Its an easy task to replace a refineries lost capacities, especially since opec reduced its output and has excess reserves (especially SA which reduced the most). Just turn the pipes and ships to other refineries.
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I guess that’s why you are driving the Maserati and I’m still polishing my pushbike! 
The Saudi Arabian energy minister said in his press conference that about half of the disrupted output is back on line and that repair work should be completed by the end of the month. And, in the meantime, SA would use their inventories to maintain their exports levels.
So two of the three issues have been resolved: how long the repairs would take, and can sufficient reserves be found to compensate for the shortfall! Fortunately, the damage was not as great as was initially anticipated!
The third issue, however, is still a concern - what repercussions may ensue from this major escalation. The US has officially claimed that the missiles/drones were launched from Southern Iran. Saudi Arabia also stated that it did not attempt to shoot down these weapons because they were coming from the north and their defence installations were all pointed south against possible attacks coming from the Houthi in Yemen. In other words SA was looking the “wrong” way.
But that possibly explains why there were no personnel injuries. SA would have detected the incoming missiles even though they were unable to counter them, but would have had ample time to evacuate in line with obviously well-rehearsed procedures - given the sensitivity of the target to attack (it has been attempted before).
As we have suggested in many different issues earlier, Mr Trump is not looking for a war in “distant lands” just at the time when he is starting his re-election campaign. That would hand the opposition far too much ammunition against him and distract his focus on his own campaign domestically. Such a war in the Middle East would also tend to be protracted and expensive and extremely complicated regionally (e.g. look at Syria!). In addition, the US is somewhat self-sufficient in energy and this is not a huge direct threat to the US economy or energy costs.
But Mr Trump surely IS looking for some concrete triumphs from all the political and economic “wars” that he has personally ignited - which, one could say, also includes the Iran problem here.
Oil prices have now discounted the good news following the SA outage - but is still maintaining a premium reflecting increasing tensions and risk of “what comes next”.
But set against that is still the underlying condition that existed prior to the SA attack and still continues: a global excess of oil inventories, sliding economic growth globally and expanding moves away from fossil fuels towards new alternative technologies.
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Since you mentioned this, I am watching it with interest. Certainly an interesting pair of currencies given the current situation in oil markets and Brexit - and today the Supreme court handling of the parliamentary prorogation.
Following on from my 15m chart yesterday, it is still not “allowing” a short trade but is certainly looking paused and waiting for a break…but this chart is more related to an entry timing issue rather than purely directional
…but please don’t think I am “stalking” your trades, I am obviously not in this myself and I am just interested in it since we have looked at whilst the SP500 market is asleep! 
I hope @pip_pimp will forgive me for quoting his post here, but I thought this was an incredibly astute comment! 
We regularly see conversations debating whether retail trading is gambling or not - and the above comment certainly brought a thought to my mind.
We can certainly compare retail trading with a casino, but whether we are gambling or not really depends on …which side of the table you are sitting!
Sure, the clients coming to the casino are gambling and some win and some lose. But we can actually say that most lose, otherwise there would not be any casinos! But why is that?
If we, on the other hand, look at the other side of the table, are the casino owners also gambling? I think not. They are using a process based on probabilities. They are not concerned with the individual wins and losses of each client, they are concerned with the odds of gaining overall and over time.
And that, I would claim, is the difference between the successful retail trader and the losers. The winners trade, and only trade, with probability edge on their side. Whatever their method or system, its key function must be to ensure that, over time, it is most likely to win more than it loses. And that is based on two separate considerations, both of which are imperative to sustained gain: A proven directional edge and strict risk (equity) exposure parameters.
So all a retail trader need do is remember which side of the casino table one prefers to work from: As the client taking risk punts - or as the owner of the business taking calculated exposure based on a positive probability edge.
Take pride in your business, no matter how small, it is your achievement! 
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Looks like you hit target on your first of these! 
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i agree and i know the odds ive been doing this a long time but in this case who is the house ??? central banks and how do i find that edge rite now im just making educated guesses not doing to bad but would like to understand TA better
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Personally, I do not think this is the case. Sure, the central banks have a major role to play in forex but only as one component in their overall policies and objectives.
Again, only personally, for me the house is me. Me and only me! I control my exposure and my direction.
But maybe a better question would be “What is the table” What is the “game” we are playing here? And, I think, the table is the market itself. As people often say, “the market is king”. And within this market there are many different games to choose from (fx pairs, comms, indices, stocks, etc)
The table is frequented by all kinds of players with all kinds of different purposes. Speculative trading is only one aspect of this huge market.
I think you can divide these participants into two broad and different approaches:
-
the fundamentals - those who take positions based on an assessment of economc conditions, weather, central bank policies, etc, etc,
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the technicians - we are only interested in what everyone else is doing in the market. What is the majority doing with its money? And we try to identify that by just analysing price. The assumption being that all the fundamental detail that exists that could influence price will reflect in the nature of the movement of its price - so by analysing the price one is analysing the net impact of the fundamentals.
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Lol 🥳
Yes i did, but i lost on the EURGBP short. Then you know me, my horns start to grow, i quickly entered additional short GBPCAD and manage to neutralise the losses from EURGBP trade. Close one… 
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That is fine - and well done! 
But please remember not to take any sudden excessive risks when attempting recoveries. You have shown an exemplary ability to pick short term trades and it should, and will, reflect in the steady growth of your account. And you then build your position sizes in tandem with your equity growth.
Your consistent account growth is far more important, and impressive, and a far greater measure of your performance as a trader, than any individual trade will ever be… 
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wow great understood perfectly thanks
Thanks, but remember that is only my personal view - there are many others!
This would have been my entry area (cross and pullback/retest) - not as good as yours in pips but a very quick result!
There never is a best way - just shows, as they say, that there are "many ways to skin a cat"
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I love Fall. It’s my favorite season.
The Oak trees are already starting to change here. It’s earlier than usual.
KC
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