Through the glass darkly

Thanks, but remember that is only my personal view - there are many others! :smiley:

This would have been my entry area (cross and pullback/retest) - not as good as yours in pips but a very quick result! :smiley:

There never is a best way - just shows, as they say, that there are "many ways to skin a cat"

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Windows:

Natural:

Scrambled:

I love Fall. It’s my favorite season.

The Oak trees are already starting to change here. It’s earlier than usual.

KC

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I love autumn, too. Perhaps it matches my rather melancholy nature! :joy:

But I like all the seasons and especially when they change so radically in their own ways.

Autumn is at its early stages here:

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That looks like it could be in New England!!

Beautiful!

Growing up on the East Coast I tend to think of the ocean when I think of being on the water… But I have rediscovered the incredible beauty of “the lake” after spending some time with friends in Vermont on lake Bomoseen.

I love being by the water early morning and evening!

Thanks for the photos!!

KC

Looks lovely - and a very extensive stretch of water:

bomoseen lake

Tell me, while you were there did you come across these Irishmen at night…:scream:

Lake Bomoseen’s Ghostly Rowboat
“The town of West Castleton now sits abandoned, but it was once home to Irish immigrant slate workers who were fond of crossing Lake Bomoseen to visit a tavern on the east shore. One night, three men set out for a night of carousing. They never returned. The next morning, their boat was found floating empty. Their bodies were never found. Today, lakeside residents claim that sometimes during a full moon, a dark, unoccupied and ghostly rowboat can be seen moving silently across the lake toward the West Castleton Bay. No oars disturb the otherwise glassy, still surface.”

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At last, the SP500 awakes this week - and another nice (and fast) BB trade (with a little positive slippage to boot). :

So the Fed rate change came - and went. Nothing unexpected there.

The British Euro MPs show themselves up in the European parliament as the bunch of baboons that British politicians have become - nothing new there, either.

On Brexit, I was forwarded this comment from a British food critic yesterday - I can sympathise:

British food critic, Jay Rayner:

“I’m not saying there wasn’t a democratic mandate for Brexit at the time. I’m just saying if I narrowly decided to order fish at a restaurant that was known for chicken, but said it was happy to offer fish, and so far I’ve been waiting three hours, and two chefs who promised to cook the fish had quit, and the third one is promising to deliver the fish in the next five minutes whether it’s cooked or not, or indeed still alive, and all the waiting staff have spent the last few hours arguing amongst themselves about whether I wanted battered cod, grilled salmon, jellied eels or dolphin kebabs, and if large parts of the restaurant appeared to be on fire but no-one was paying attention to it because they were all arguing about fish, I would quite like, just once, to be asked if I definitely still wanted the fish."

But back to the SP500. In trading we have a number of crucial questions that we need to clearly answer if we are to get anywhere, and one of the most important of these is whether we are seeking longer term trends (mainly daily charts), or the market swings (4-hour/1-hour type charts) or the short term “jitters” (mainly 15min =>1min charts).

There is profit to be made in any of these choices, but the issue is to be clear which of these one is actually aiming for.

Perhaps the three most important components to consider here are related to a) one’s trading set-up, b) one’s own psychological make-up, and c) one’s personal circumstances (equity, time available, goals and objectives, other financial and non-financial commitments, etc).

One little aspect here is rarely talked about - maybe simply because fx retail traders mostly don’t get to this point. And this aspect is how wealth is generated from trading. It is surprising how much the general assumption is that “I am going to make a million from fx trading” or “I am going to trade full-time for a living” - even though everyone knows very few ever achieve that purely from their trading. And even amongst those that do amass great returns from trading, there are many that lose it all again (and again) on mistakes, whims, wild punts, carelessness, etc. All this only underlines that pure trading does not, for the average trader, lead to a consistent level of wealth and earnings.

There are already many threads dealing with the difficulties of trying to trade for a living and earning a monthly salary, so I am not going to talk about that now. But the other, easier, alternative of trading for equity growth is maybe worthy of some thoughts.

Equity growth trading means that one is free to trade whenever one feels there is a good probability of success - and to step aside whenever there is nothing to do. There is no pressure to “earn” money all the time. It also means there is less pressure on how much profit to aim for and how much to risk.

But the main point I want to offer here is that equity building trading does NOT mean just continually building up your account balance and forever taking larger and larger positions. It means using your trading account as a funds generator which can then be regularly channelled into other, more concrete, forms of longer term investment.

In this scenario, the objective of one’s trading policy is to reach a point of stability where one’s trading approach and position size stabilise at a level that generates a regular income that a) suits one’s other factors such as one’s pyschological comfort zone regarding risk exposure, as well as b) can fund one’s longer term investment objectives.

Personally, my early days were spent day trading on 5min and 15min TFs. It worked for me but was extremely demanding regarding discipline and patience. Even though my method was ok, it was exhausting mentally always trying to decide when and where, and with the necessary precision with such short term trades, to get in/out and, even more difficult - when not to! I did that for years and no longer have the interest (or concentration) for such intensity - so I have moved my time horizons further out.

But, at the other extreme, I am not psychologically wired for long term position trading (non-trading investment being something entirely different here). I cannot stand having trading positions open when I am travelling or doing something else that keeps me away from the markets. I want, and need, to only trade when I am ready and willing to.

So my personal “trading comfort zone” is in the 1-2 days duration. Others will come to other conclusions depending on their own circumstances.

So that is why I like my so-called BB trading method, and yesterday was a prime example of it in action. It gave a good sell signal on SP500 and, with a very small pull-back, hit its target within a few hours and the day was done. The follow-up could have been the start of a down move offering many hundreds more pips/points, but the alternative was that it would return to the former levels - which this time it did:

But the question that this raises is - how many times do such moves start a new long trend compared with how many times are they short-lived routine market swings.

If one keeps a journal of such things (as I do) it can often become clear that taking consistent “chunks” out of each swing generates more with less risk than always hoping for the new trend and taking multiple losses before catching that rare 1000+ pip trend move.

But the point here is that a trader needs to be aware of what exactly they are looking for, what are their trading objectives, what are their circumstantial factors and what is their psychological wiring regarding risk and exposure duration.

If one can answer those issues and live and trade by them then it still may not generate a profit - but at least one’s trading is a few steps away from mere gambling and erratic punting on a whim.

Just a few ramblings :smiley:

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Thanks for the post, i have a lot to think about…

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Seems the US and Saudi Arabia have concrete evidence that the drones and missiles used against the Abqaiq oil processing facility in SA did originate from Iran.

When asked will the US initiate a military response to the attacks, the reply was:

"There is going to be no knee jerk reactions to this:

what happens with patience is it prevents stupid moves."

Hmmmm, now doesn’t that last comment sound rather familiar… :thinking: :slightly_smiling_face:

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I haven’t seen or heard of this evidence as I have been on a communication blackout. But it sounds awfully familiar.

Videos and the sales pitch of wmd. Packaged it up and handed it off to Colin Powell to run it into the end zone.

Touch down!! We’re going to war!

And here we are.

"Yesterday, Saudi officials displayed fragments of the missiles, saying they were made in Iran as were the drones used in the attack, for which the Houthi rebel group in Yemen took responsibility.

They also showed surveillance footage of incoming drones, although there was no footage of the actual hits that caused fires at Abqaiq.

Now, CBS reports that the circuit boards of the missiles can be reverse engineered, which would reveal their route to their target. What’s more, however, according to the U.S. government sources, there were satellite images showing the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps preparing for the launch of the missiles at the Ahvaz Air Base.

As to why the evidence was not used to prevent the attack, one U.S. official told CBS the significance of the images was only figured out in hindsight."

A late entry on the buy signal meant only 100 pips today over two trades this evening.

Thought this would be interesting to you.

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Oh wow! I hadn’t seen that! No it wasn’t me - nor was I on the other side of his deals - unfortunately! :joy:

One can’t help wondering, considering the scale and duration of this situation, who is more at fault, the rogue trader for doing it or Mitsubishi for not having sufficient controls to prevent such a situation!

He apparently started in January and I guess from then until April everything was going well while the market prices were rising. But I guess he must have been taking positions in the futures back months for these to accumulate like that, otherwise they would have to be rolled over and the P/L realised along the way.

Thanks for the link! :+1: :slightly_smiling_face:

I was thinking the same thing. Big, bad trades appear to be happening more frequently, or maybe we’re just hearing about them more often. Regardless, something I think should be avoidable.

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A BIG day for the UK today.

Seems the question is not whether the conservatives will win but will they win by enough.

Will we see another hung government or will Boris Johnson at last have a majority government that can finally "Get Brexit Done”

From a trading perspective - today is a big day in the UK - and for the future of the Pound.

Polls close at 22:00 GMT in UK and results tomorrow morning.

Both the EUR and, especially, the Pound are off their highs right now.

Could be a real day of action tomorrow, be prepared…

YES! The Brexit marathon nightmare is virtually over! It now seems that we can see the “light at the end of the tunnel”! since BJ will definitely have a working majority in the UK parliament, which, at last, means that Brexit will now come to its conclusion early in the New Year. Whether one is a “leave” or “remain” it is essential for a government to have a majority in order to achieve anything major! :clap::clap:

The Pound obviously reflected the relief and showed a strong gain against the USD.

Personally, I was not prepared to take a punt on the election by buying the GBP but did re-enter long on EURUSD as a “lower downside risk” alternative and I just closed that out. But will review later today what to do next here. We have managed to break above the 200 SMA - but will we hold there:

Now is time to start to watching EU, GU and EG as three separate pairs as UK and EU go their different ways.

The first big step after leaving the EU, most likely in January, will be the complex negotiation of new trade deals between UK - EU and UK - US. This is likely to be a long and complex process.

As an aside, and no less important, it seems that Donald Trump has signed off the Stage 1 agreement between the US and China as the first stage towards a full trade agreement. This will naturally mean the postponement of the threatened additional 15% tariffs this weekend and even possible removal of some existing tariffs as well as the Chinese promising more imports from the US such as agricultural produce.

These negotiations also have a long way to go and also very complex, especially with the current impeachment proceedings and a US election glowing ever brighter on the radar.

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