Through the glass darkly

I haven’t seen or heard of this evidence as I have been on a communication blackout. But it sounds awfully familiar.

Videos and the sales pitch of wmd. Packaged it up and handed it off to Colin Powell to run it into the end zone.

Touch down!! We’re going to war!

And here we are.

"Yesterday, Saudi officials displayed fragments of the missiles, saying they were made in Iran as were the drones used in the attack, for which the Houthi rebel group in Yemen took responsibility.

They also showed surveillance footage of incoming drones, although there was no footage of the actual hits that caused fires at Abqaiq.

Now, CBS reports that the circuit boards of the missiles can be reverse engineered, which would reveal their route to their target. What’s more, however, according to the U.S. government sources, there were satellite images showing the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps preparing for the launch of the missiles at the Ahvaz Air Base.

As to why the evidence was not used to prevent the attack, one U.S. official told CBS the significance of the images was only figured out in hindsight."

A late entry on the buy signal meant only 100 pips today over two trades this evening.

Thought this would be interesting to you.

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Oh wow! I hadn’t seen that! No it wasn’t me - nor was I on the other side of his deals - unfortunately! :joy:

One can’t help wondering, considering the scale and duration of this situation, who is more at fault, the rogue trader for doing it or Mitsubishi for not having sufficient controls to prevent such a situation!

He apparently started in January and I guess from then until April everything was going well while the market prices were rising. But I guess he must have been taking positions in the futures back months for these to accumulate like that, otherwise they would have to be rolled over and the P/L realised along the way.

Thanks for the link! :+1: :slightly_smiling_face:

I was thinking the same thing. Big, bad trades appear to be happening more frequently, or maybe we’re just hearing about them more often. Regardless, something I think should be avoidable.

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A BIG day for the UK today.

Seems the question is not whether the conservatives will win but will they win by enough.

Will we see another hung government or will Boris Johnson at last have a majority government that can finally "Get Brexit Done”

From a trading perspective - today is a big day in the UK - and for the future of the Pound.

Polls close at 22:00 GMT in UK and results tomorrow morning.

Both the EUR and, especially, the Pound are off their highs right now.

Could be a real day of action tomorrow, be prepared…

YES! The Brexit marathon nightmare is virtually over! It now seems that we can see the “light at the end of the tunnel”! since BJ will definitely have a working majority in the UK parliament, which, at last, means that Brexit will now come to its conclusion early in the New Year. Whether one is a “leave” or “remain” it is essential for a government to have a majority in order to achieve anything major! :clap::clap:

The Pound obviously reflected the relief and showed a strong gain against the USD.

Personally, I was not prepared to take a punt on the election by buying the GBP but did re-enter long on EURUSD as a “lower downside risk” alternative and I just closed that out. But will review later today what to do next here. We have managed to break above the 200 SMA - but will we hold there:

Now is time to start to watching EU, GU and EG as three separate pairs as UK and EU go their different ways.

The first big step after leaving the EU, most likely in January, will be the complex negotiation of new trade deals between UK - EU and UK - US. This is likely to be a long and complex process.

As an aside, and no less important, it seems that Donald Trump has signed off the Stage 1 agreement between the US and China as the first stage towards a full trade agreement. This will naturally mean the postponement of the threatened additional 15% tariffs this weekend and even possible removal of some existing tariffs as well as the Chinese promising more imports from the US such as agricultural produce.

These negotiations also have a long way to go and also very complex, especially with the current impeachment proceedings and a US election glowing ever brighter on the radar.

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Boris Johnson says: “I will work day and night to repay the trust of voters”.

Old wisdom says: “I have only ever told one lie - and that was it”

Truth used to be an absolute value, now, it seems, it is what you want to believe, or others to believe. :thinking:

Time will tell!

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We have seen two compressions and breakouts on this recent EU move so far, which is what I normally look for, as shown;

Whilst we do not have another compression currently, I have reset my long position here - which will probably turn out to be a duff decision :thinking:. But this is intended as a slightly longer term view based on the joint benefits from a concrete improvement on the Brexit side and from the global benefit from a brighter outlook for the US-China trade relationship.

We could easily see a pullback to at least that Daily 200SMA which would be a much more sensible point to have entered, but, well, its the Christmas season and there is so much going on with visitors etc that this was an “enter and eyes shut” situation. :joy:

But it is always wise to remember that any currency pair comprises (at least) two currencies which have their own strength/weakness factors, and in the case of EU we also have GBP. at the moment. So this could be a rough and uncomfortable rise, but I want to be somehow “in” this change in the overall global picture and will be happier to end up as “loved and lost” than to have been left at the bus stop watching the back of the bus as it disappears over the horizon towards utopia without me on board!

But if I am wrong and we undo all the good news then I only lose what was gained on those 2 up-legs, so no disasters here.

But something to sweat over, anyway :persevere: :sweat_smile:

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Another interesting thing to watch as the next few weeks unfold:

The Scottish National Party (SNP) won 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats in the national parliament.

Scotland’s first minister, Nicola Sturgeon said:

"Boris Johnson may have a mandate to take England out of the European Union. He emphatically does not have a mandate to take Scotland out of the European Union.”

Sturgeon might as well be bold as she can, some doubt that she will survive the implications of the Alex Salmond trial.

The SNP is a conundrum at the best of times. They are very unlikely to succeed in their apparent objective. However, if a pro-independence result of a referendum starts to look likely, I wonder if that will be rather positive for the GBP…

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Thanks for those interesting comments, @tommor :slightly_smiling_face:

I hadn’t realised her own future was in doubt here. Is this because of the way she had handled things when the issues first started to break out our is there more to it?

Interesting thought!
I also very much doubt that Mr Johnson is going to allow such a referendum, at least while the new trade negotiations are underway with the EU and US -and that could be years. And i could imagine that unraveling Scotland from UK, simultaneously with Scotland rejoining the EU, could be as traumatic as Brexit itself!

But it’s impact on the pound? Absolutely no idea! :joy:

Yes, there are rumours about what she knew and what she did. Or rather what she didn’t do. But we shall see.

Its bizarre that the SNP should push for independence from the UK before the UK’s Brexit deal terms are finalised.The whole thing’s about money anyway, why risk jumping too soon?

The GBP issue is unprecedented, as the Treasury assert that an independent Scotland would be unable to use sterling as their currency. But since the UK subsidises the Scottish economy, losing Scotland might be advantageous for the UK’s per capita GDP, so good for the GBP. On the other hand, it would be odd for a country’s currency to appreciate when its volume in circulation has just been cut by 8%.

Thank you for those insights. The more I think about it, the more I realise how little I know about the relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK.

It certainly seems logical that there would no longer be a Scottish pound - and it would not be a foregone conclusion that Scotland would automatically join the Eurozone. This also leads on to the issues of the royal family’s kingdom and at what point would the Queen actually say something! Afterall, it is her kingdom! Would Scotland then become another commonwealth country or entirely independent!

From a practical point of view it would certainly appear to present another EU border problem, like we have with N.Ireland.

I guess the amount of currency in circulation is easily manipulated but what would be the impact on GDP is beyond my imagination - I would never have been a good economist! :slight_smile: perhaps that is why I am a chartist!

In the meantime, maybe one should start accumulating a few more of these:

Well, that certainly was a duff decision! I bought at what turned out to be not far from the high of the day - only to see it decline for the entire day. I did see it briefly flicker green at one point before it sank but maybe I only imagined that. :joy:

I closed this intended “longer term trade” only a short time later after we sank below the Daily 200 SMA.

As I said, this was not a typical entry point for my style of trading, being so far from the MA band, and the significance of a Daily SMA is only really relevant on the close of the Daily candle, not during the day! This trade broke both “rules”.

Well, that was a short-lived and disappointing trade, but left a residue of profit overall from this latest EU move. And that is the key point here, I think, to evaluate any trade in terms of preserving equity. There is always another trade but there is not always additional equity if one loses it!

So that was that, it happens.

The UK suddenly got interesting again! :+1:

Having closed out those EU positions Friday, the GU was looking quite promising towards the close last Friday and so I reset a long position in GU instead. It was a nice move over the weekend and a close out for around +50 pips this morning (my usual target area for 1-hour TF moves).

Having recovered Friday’s disappointing EU fade, this was an inspiring trade, which has cemented my change of focus back to GBP after all these very negative Brexit muddle years!

So SP500, EU and GU continue to be my interests but I am now only going to focus on GBP here on this thread for the near term.

The clear majority achieved by the Conservatives changes the entire landscape for the UK and GBP. At last, we have a parliament and a government that is not restricted to just shouting, discussing and waving hands but without the teeth to make any concrete decisions.

Now the way is clear to get “things” done and it is clear that that is exactly what BJ is intending to do - and fast!

So suddenly the UK is interesting again

This week will be devoted to cabinet reshuffles, welcoming new MP’s, the Queen’s opening of Parliament and probably again introducing the Withrawal Agreement Bill. Last time BJ wanted this passed within about 3 days, but was beaten down - this time it will undoubtedly go through and probably very soon.

Then there are the election promises like the NHS funding, but the key issue after leaving EU (probably) in January, will be the trade deal negotiations with both the EU and the US.

This is all extremely positive forex-related stuff and a huge breath of fresh air to the trading community.

The UK: A taste of things to come:

LONDON (Reuters):

Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to run a “revolutionary” government by sacking ministers, merging ministries and replacing civil servants with external experts, the Sunday Times newspaper reported.

The newspaper cited sources as saying Johnson, who won a commanding majority in Thursday’s election, could sack up to a third of his top team of ministers to focus work on providing for traditionally Labour-supporting voters in northern and central England who backed his Conservatives.

It said the Brexit ministry would be abolished on Jan. 31 when Johnson has promised that Britain will leave the European Union, and that he would set up a department for borders and immigration separate from the Home Office, or interior ministry, and merge the trade ministry with the business department.

Johnson is expected to carry out only a modest reshuffle of his cabinet in the coming days to replace ministers who stood down in the election but in February, after Brexit, he will make major changes in the team he hopes will deliver on his election promises for domestic reform, the Sunday Times said.

LONDON (Reuters) -

"The laws needed to enact Britain’s exit from the European Union will be put before parliament on Friday, Prime Minster Boris Johnson’s spokesman said on Monday.

The spokesman said the bill would aim to put the terms of the deal agreed between Johnson and the EU into law, and that the government was confident of going on to secure a long term free trade agreement with the bloc."