Now I have read a different version. Apparently lunch in the Luxemburg Bouquet Garni restaurant comprised oysters and a rather large dose of Pollocks! 
Yes, I really can believe that!!
The conspiracy begins! Let’s see if it resurfaces at a Trump property!
An oil minister has quoted at saying that prices shouldn’t be affected by the cut in output. What!?!? How is that remotely possible?
I think this will be the big question. How bad are the damages. Reports this morning put them at worse that originally thought.
Since the oil production is not affected by the cut of gasoline production the cut is not affecting the oil prices.
A refinery doesnt produce oil,it processes it.
What is affecting the oil pfices is the political situation between iran and SA
Okay, I missed those distinctions, oil vs gas, and production vs refining.
Thanks for the explanation .
Hi @MrDE and @forexforexforex!
Whilst it is true that the function of a refinery is to convert crude oil into refined products such as gasoline, aircraft fuels, diesel, heating oil, and other non-fuel products, I think this is not the case with this Abqaiq facility that has been so badly damaged.
The Abqaiq plant’s chief function is to act as a hub which collects the raw crude oil from the oil fields and processes it into a safe and stable form of crude oil for transportation by tankers. It basically removes the hydrogen sulphide and other impurities from the oil and reduces vapour pressure. But its output is not refined products, it is still crude oil.
And that is where the problem lies. The issue is the halving of Saudi Arabia’s daily output of crude oil not refined products. A sudden loss of crude oil suppllies representing 5%of the global daily demand is a huge problem - on a par with the Arab oil embargo in 1973 and Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990.
Apparently the infrastructure in Abqaiq is both large and uniquely designed for its purposes. The estimates for its repair are now stretching out into weeks and maybe months - and there is the ongoing fear of further actions of a similar kind. This is not a little limpet mine on the side of a tanker - this is an act on a scale usually associated with a large regional, or even global, war.
So the issue is indeed about crude oil supply/demand. And whilst demands can be met in the short term from global land and floating storage and the release of strategic reserves, an actual increase in daily supply on this scale is not so easy.
Its quite ironic that prices have now surged and somewhat stabilized for the time being at levels that SA would have otherwise been very happy about - but not at the cost of half of its production! But I can imagine that the other producer countries are trying to hide their smiles as their budget deficits suddenly are looking much rosier!
Interestingly, the US has come a long way in becoming energy self-sufficient and I doubt this act will have much impact domestically there, since the US is already becoming a net exporter of some grades of crude oil. But the US refineries also need other grades that are not available domestically but I don’t think SA is a provider of those, rather it is, for example, Canada.
So I think we are going to see upward pressures on oil prices until there are signs that A) the SA supply is coming back on line, B) sufficient reserves are being released, and C) there is a reduction in the risks of further such major attacks on global oil supply infrastructure and transportation - these are three very big issues! 
Good points @anon46773462 but they all play little role in the crude oil price. The shortfall of processing power is easily compensated by a few tankers shipping oil to other refineries.
The reason for oil rise is pure political. Today its falling 5%+ only because trump said he wants no war. It possibly will be back to where it started by the end of the week. All depending on the tone of leaders when talking to press.
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I think you are considerably oversimplyiing the problem here. It is not a question of just re-routing the oil. The raw crude being extracted in SA needs to be cleansed before it is safe to transport and that is the process that has been incapacitated - not its transportation, nor its refining.
Of course, as already mentioned, there is plenty of crude oil in storage elsewhere and other countries can up their production. But the logistics of arranging this and the shipping requirement is no simple task when the quantity is some 5-6mill b/d. For example, the entire Iranian supply prior to sanctions was only around2 mill b/d. - but I sincerely hope you are right! The last thing we want is soggy global economy with excessively high oil prices!
Well, I certainly wouldn’t argue with that! 
Surely, that is a large portion of the pricing in most markets most of the time - at least on a short term basis.
But I think I would prefer to call it sentiment that drives the price rather than politics - and naturally politicians feed sentiment for that very reason - but it is not the only element in sentiment. Mr Trump is perhaps a mastermind in manipulating sentiment - something, I think, that Mr Johnson also fancies himself as, but I am not so convinced as far as he is concerned - at least not yet! 
I certainly do hope that things get back to “normal” soon. It is getting quite difficult to define a probability in directional trading.
I am so embarrassed that the best I’ve managed is 11 pips on S&P today and I am becoming progrssively more content sidelined rather than looking for a trade with a microscope!
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This just popped up on the news re that sudden drop in oil prices today:
“Oil prices fell sharply on late Tuesday morning as Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia’s oil output may return to normal more quickly than earlier reports had suggested. Oil production is expected to return to normal within two to three weeks, anonymous Reuters sources suggested, contrary to yesterday’s reports that took a more pessimistic view of how long it would take for Aramco’s production to come back online.”
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Would be interesting to track the long positions that were established over the past month-and-a-half or so building up to this.
It’s my understanding there are things called dark pools where large institutional blocks of stock can be purchased.hidden from public view… Not registering on volume charts.
KC
KC
Lady Luck again smiled on me today! 🥳
My sentiments exactly!
Good to hear that! 
But I suspect it is more due to your Kickapoo trading shrewdness!
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Hi @frandlost
Now that is something I had never heard of!
But a quick google revealed:
" Dark pools are an ominous-sounding term for private exchanges or forums for securities trading. However, unlike stock exchanges, dark pools are not accessible by the investing public. Also known as “dark pools of liquidity,” these exchanges are so named for their complete lack of transparency. Dark pools came about primarily to facilitate block trading by institutional investors who did not wish to impact the markets with their large orders and obtain adverse prices for their trades." Investopedia
So it seems you are right! Not an encouraging thought at all! 
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I just shorted GBPCAD, I rather that you are right than MrDE
To be honest, @alphahavoc, if you are seeking your normal target pips (around 20-40 pips?) Then i think it is more likely to succeed from the “lady luck” input than anything I and @MrDE might be suggesting! 
I just took a look at that pair. Not one that I ever consider. It seems you are looking for a reversal if you have shorted it? I think you are very brave with shorting this one yet considering the 15m chart - but this is just my way of looking at things!
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Well, i think Mr De has a point. Furthermore, Trump is so capricious to the point, that he can change his mind without any formal notice by tweeting, just like the snap of his fingers with the Power Gaunlet. Who knows? Oil price may rise 20% the very next day.
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There are a couple of great books about the US stock market insiders written by Richard Ney.
He did some excellent research and writing.
I don’t know if it is still is 100% applicable given the computerized high freq. trading.
Would still highly recommend both books.
KC
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“Saudi Arabia’s oil production is fully back online after the attacks and the kingdom will achieve 11 million barrels per day (bpd) capacity by the end of September and 12 million bpd by the end of November, the energy minister said on Tuesday.” 
I dont like to say it but; told ya 
Its an easy task to replace a refineries lost capacities, especially since opec reduced its output and has excess reserves (especially SA which reduced the most). Just turn the pipes and ships to other refineries.
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I guess that’s why you are driving the Maserati and I’m still polishing my pushbike!
The Saudi Arabian energy minister said in his press conference that about half of the disrupted output is back on line and that repair work should be completed by the end of the month. And, in the meantime, SA would use their inventories to maintain their exports levels.
So two of the three issues have been resolved: how long the repairs would take, and can sufficient reserves be found to compensate for the shortfall! Fortunately, the damage was not as great as was initially anticipated!
The third issue, however, is still a concern - what repercussions may ensue from this major escalation. The US has officially claimed that the missiles/drones were launched from Southern Iran. Saudi Arabia also stated that it did not attempt to shoot down these weapons because they were coming from the north and their defence installations were all pointed south against possible attacks coming from the Houthi in Yemen. In other words SA was looking the “wrong” way.
But that possibly explains why there were no personnel injuries. SA would have detected the incoming missiles even though they were unable to counter them, but would have had ample time to evacuate in line with obviously well-rehearsed procedures - given the sensitivity of the target to attack (it has been attempted before).
As we have suggested in many different issues earlier, Mr Trump is not looking for a war in “distant lands” just at the time when he is starting his re-election campaign. That would hand the opposition far too much ammunition against him and distract his focus on his own campaign domestically. Such a war in the Middle East would also tend to be protracted and expensive and extremely complicated regionally (e.g. look at Syria!). In addition, the US is somewhat self-sufficient in energy and this is not a huge direct threat to the US economy or energy costs.
But Mr Trump surely IS looking for some concrete triumphs from all the political and economic “wars” that he has personally ignited - which, one could say, also includes the Iran problem here.
Oil prices have now discounted the good news following the SA outage - but is still maintaining a premium reflecting increasing tensions and risk of “what comes next”.
But set against that is still the underlying condition that existed prior to the SA attack and still continues: a global excess of oil inventories, sliding economic growth globally and expanding moves away from fossil fuels towards new alternative technologies.
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