Time To Go Fishing...For Some Pips!

Ok before you go any further I will be strait up and say that I have just begun forward testing this system, so I do not know that it works for sure in real time, but it has shown some promise in backtesting manually (not a whole lot of weight in my oppinion, youll see why), but I will let you know. As always any constructive criticism, suggestions, test results of your own are appreciated.

The system:

ok I looked at the major pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF…) during the london and NewYork sessions and this looks pretty good on any of them. what is needed is a ADX(10), Fisher trend indicator (10) (ill attach it to my post). Ok what I do is go to an hourly chart and I wait for adx to be above 23 and then I take the trade in the direction of the Fisher indicator. Thats it, takes about 2 seconds to see if a setup has appeared and im done with my trade. I go for 10 pips and then trail 10 until I am stopped out. The stoploss is 80 pips. I go for a 10 pip a day average.

The Pros:

obviously this takes little time and when used with compounding could build up very fast.

The signal is black and white, so there is no guessing and all emotion is left at the door :stuck_out_tongue:

The win rate looks pretty high…almost high enough to beat out that 80 point stop.

The Cons:

There are two main concerns that I am sure many of you are already turned off by, if not already left my post due to them lol.

The first is the R/R ratio. With such a high loss and little win, it only takes a few losses to wipe out most or all of my wins.

Fisher re-paints…I know I was sad when I found this out, but I may have a fix to this. More on that later.

The whole system came from this line of thinking. If London and NY are the busiest sessions and make the most movement, then I should be able to take a small slice of the pizza pretty consistently and compound it. I would do this by riding the previous trend for a small amount of pips. With all of the back and forth in forex I feel that even if I catch the trend at the end, it will bounce around enough for me to hit my small TP. I love the Fisher indicator because I don’t know how exactly it is calculated, but I like how close it comes to marking out the trend start and end. Though I know it repaints, It seems when I watch it real time to catch the trend with in at least 3 or 4 bars, which seems to be pretty accurate before It repaints. The Idea I had as a filter, so that we could back test and produce an idea of profitable trades is to only trade when fisher is above x or below -x, where x is somewhere between .4 and 1?? I also tried the fisher indicator with no repaint, but it is definitely not as accurate unless it is on a 5 period setting and even then it is ify. Any suggestions on better trend indicators, or systems similar to this where I take a small profit fairly consistently and compound it for the long hull. Also if we could fix that 80 point stop I would be able to at least feel a little better :stuck_out_tongue:

i cant upload the files but this is where I got them from

Metatrader 4 Indicators download list - Mt4 Indicators F


Your head seems to be screwed on the right way :smiley: In other words, your thinking makes sense and also you’ve identified the two major problems with the system.

To me, the dealbreaker is the R/R which isn’t good enough. The problem is what happens during a losing streak. Just 3 losers in a row would decimate the account in such a way that getting back the losses would become tedious and a gumption trap. I promise that all systems experience losing streaks of 3 trades and in fact longer streaks than that are not at all unusual.

As for suggesting similar systems, that’s difficult since there are virtually thousands of them that all try to capitalize on the London/NY volatility.

What suits you may not suit me and vice versa. Are you willing to stay glued to the screen for hours, or would you like a set and forget approach, etc. There are so many variables which makes it hard to advise.

Anyway, your post shows that you’re on the right track. Be persistent and you will get there but if my personal experience is any guide, the journey even for smart skilled people is longer than it will first seem.