Timmy's 50% Fibonacci System

Hello fellow pippers,

I’ve been trading in the forex markets whether on Demo or Live accounts for the past 4 years now. Each year I seem to come up with a Price Action new trading system to follow, but for some reason I lose focus along the way (caught up in that trump china trade war etc.)

Now I’m telling, no, FORCING myself to stick to one system. I think the best way for me to do that is to prove it to an audience (if I even build one)

So here is my trading system! I’ll try to post my trades here but mostly theyll be found on my blog

Blog: tradingwithtimmy on WordPress

Babypips wont let me post more than 1 image so if you want to see the full trading system in detail please visit my blog :slight_smile:

Timmy’s 50% Fibonacci System

Confluence is key in this system. A combination of Top-down trend analysis, price swings, fibonacci retracement, and a candlestick pattern or 20MA touch is all required for a valid entry. These parameters must be met on the 1HR chart in order to consider a trade. Lets take a look at the indicators in detail.

Top-Down Analysis

Start from the weekly and draw trendlines or boxes to identify support and resistance levels, or supply and demand zones. Use these zones to identify a trend. All lines and zones must have at least 2 or more touches to be eligible. Repeat in Daily, 4HR and 1HR charts.

Trades are only taken when in a reversal, or a continuation pattern. Do not trade consolidation.

Indication Patterns

These patterns will indicate where price will move to next during our TD analysis. Probability of outcome for these patterns are very high in the markets we know today. Using these in confluence with our indicators will promise very high win ratios.

⁃ Ascending/Descending Triangles

⁃ Double top/bottom

⁃ Head and shoulders

⁃ Last kiss

Price Swings

Look for these swings. If entering a reversal, there must be at least 2 swings in said direction before considering a trade. When looking for a continuation, do not enter when coming 1 swing away from a zone. Wait for either the rejection or breakout.

Fibonacci Retracement

Once the first 2 parameters have been met, time to draw our fibonacci retracement. In the 1HR chart start from the bottom or top of the previous swing’s candle wick. End at other end. Always draw from wick to wick.

Entry should always be from the 50% zone. Stop loss should maximize from at least 200 pips to the 78.6% zone.

Candlestick Pattern & 20MA

The final indicator for our trade is confluence of both a candlestick pattern and the 20MA bounce. Look for these in the 1HR timeframe. Also use follow up confirmation candles.

Candlesticks include but are not limited to:

⁃ Engulfing Bar:

⁃ Pin Bar:

⁃ Harami/Evening or Morning Star:

Either of these must bounce off the 20MA to be valid for entry

Now that we’ve taken a look at our rules and indicators, lets take a look at entry, stop loss and risk management.

Entry:

  • Top Down analysis proves trend or reversal (not consolidating) thru indication pattern
  • Minimum 2 swings in direction we want to trade
  • 50% retrace with candlestick, confirmation and 20MA bounce
  • Minimum 4:1 trade

Stop Loss:

  • Minimum 200 pips
  • Maximum 78.6% retrace

Take Profit:

  • Minimum 4:1 trade
  • Just beyond fib 100/0 levels or at consolidation

Risk:

  • 1%

TLDR This is a trading system combining Price Action Swings/Fibonacci retracement/Candlebar Indicators for entry.

2 Likes

Hello Timmy.

Nicely presented I must say.

Have not gone into the details in depth. But sure looks like you’ve thought it out well.

Also nice to see that you’re FORCING yourself to one system and no longer allowing yourself (or at very least TRYING to not allow yourself) to get caught up in all the sagas that play out on a daily basis. Personally I think you’re on the right track.

I don’t really believe that Fibonacci numbers are magical on their own (although many will disagree I’m sure). What makes them count is the fact that MANY watch them and base trade decisions on them. They therefore become a self fulfilling prophecy. Not my thing. But I have indeed sat and watched them in action and they certainly do have merit.

Nice to see you’re attempting to manage risk and risk/reward too. You’re one of only a few I can tell you.

So I do wish you well and every bit of success.

Regards,

Dale.

2 Likes

On paper this is awesome, a magical formula that somehow knows exactly what level the market will retrace to.

In reality its because there are so many eyeballs on the same level, everyone and their dog draws a Fibonacci retracement in more or less the same place.

The truth is the big players (smart money) doesn’t give a hoot about your RSI indicators, Fibonacci retracements and definitely doesn’t care about Elliot Waves.

But if it works for you, it works for you.

2 Likes

Thank you Dale for the kind words.

I couldn’t agree more with your statement about finonacci! Yes, fibonacci levels alone definitely do not hold up an entry.

Thats why this system uses Price Action Swings and Candlestick Patterns in confluence with the fib.

Hopefully baby pips allows me to post more images one day so i dont only have the one there.

Cheers

1 Like

@Timmynguy3n, nice clean well thought out strategy you have there Tim. I’m with Dale on the Fibonacci Levels, not a true believer but they definitely generate interest points on most charts.

Having said that, the same “Many Eyeballs” theory can be applied to Support and Resistance, Bollinger Bands and even to some point point the RSI (30 - 70) and common MA Crosses (20 - 50 or price over 200).

Cheers

1 Like

@The_Baller. You are starting to remind me of Karl Pilkington!!! LOL!!!

Give the boy a break. He’s at least trying to work things out in a methodical way and doing his homework. Which is more than I can say for at least the other 99% so far as I can tell.

I like Karl by the way!!!

Regards,

Dale.

All I can say is Karl Pilkington is a legend.

1 Like