Ok firstly, it is possible to pick tops and bottoms, BUT it is hard to be consistently correct.
I did get there in my previous trading history, but the operating system I worked was such that I only got a signal 1-3 times a YEAR. That was when I went back to work - because I thought “I can do this without spending all day in front of teh screen” - but then other things crop up and you forget to check the charts at all !
That was on “the DOW” and one of the main reasons I am looking at Forex is because I believe it is based in factual exchange rates and therefore has actual boundaries, which should make this easier - We’ll see !
Now you have identified the problems you are bringing to the betting counter. That is real progress.
The problems come from our evolutionary psychology.
There is no point my trying to tell you - because you can already see it.
We are taught from early age things like
A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush - Nobody ever went broke taking a small profit.
Which actually align with our thinking - we will fight harder to reatain that which we have than to achieve a gain ! - Hence your “HODL” activities and indeed your “Doubling down”
However, when we have a small paper gain, we again get frightened to lose it and close out too early.
Hence small winners, big losers - That WILL Bust you !
Now I am back and make no secret of the fact I am trading Demo, because those errors have crept back in over the intervening years. As we speak, I am in a trade which is currently 130 pips UP. It got to +180 yestrday and I was joyful that it was going to hit my TP (+220 pips) - then I have watched it retrace to +110 and was so close to closing out that it was unbearable. I had to shut down the computer and “Go do something else”
I shall not go live again until I have overcome those emotions so that I can “Treat those two imposters both the same” (Kipling)
Go back to demo mate - until you can do the same.
Then go live - not with $5000 but with say $500
In the meanwhile read what you can about “Behavioural Economics” and “Behavioural psychology”
Like this :