$TLT Long Term Cycles & Elliott Wave

$TLT Long Term Cycles & Elliott Wave

Firstly the ETF fund TLT inception date was on July 22, 2002. This instrument seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of or in U.S. Treasury bonds with maturities twenty years or more remaining. There is a lack of data before July 22, 2002. This article will focus on the larger uptrend cycle from there which is presumed finished a cycle higher from those lows in wave ((a)) in July 2016. The pullback from that high appeared to be an Elliott wave zig zag structure in three waves into the October 2018 wave ((b)) lows.

Secondly: The aforementioned pullback lower in the wave ((b)) was strong enough to suggest it was correcting the cycle up from the all time lows. Thus it appears ended that cycle. From those October 2018 lows the instrument has made another high above the July 2016 highs creating a bullish sequence. This sequence higher from the October 2018 lows appears to be incomplete. On the weekly chart shown below, Elliott wave corrective sequences are in either three, seven or eleven swings. Impulses are in either five, nine or thirteen swings. It is obvious the three swings lower from the July 2016 highs into the October 2018 lows were of three swings.

The analysis continues and concludes below the weekly chart.

Thirdly and in conclusion the cycle up from the October 2018 lows appears to be an impulse that appears incomplete. The wave III cycle up from there ended at the March 2020 highs. Down from there a three swing cycle in wave IV is favored ended at 139.01 also in March 2020. While the current pullback continues to show it will remain above there it can see a turn higher toward the 190 to 195 area in the larger wave (I) before a correction of the cycle up from the October 2018 lows.

Without complete analysis, it is hard to decide whether you should invest in a TLT ETF or not.