If you look at the EUR/USD on the 5 mins now there’s is no kink above the support, so chances are it will break, bet it doesnt now I’ve posted this.
Well: I’m looking out for it now i.e. I’m currently believing that it gives that system a ‘second chance’ as it were even although RSI does not generate another valid signal this ‘another leg up or down’ idea before the ACTUAL turn could mean something.
Regards,
Dale.
P.S. I edited one of my posts above to CLEARLY ILLUSTRATE my ‘apostrophe issue’)!!! LOL!!! Yep: maybe I should got to the shops or something i.e. do something USEFUL!!! LOL!!!
Do you believe me now?
And that my friend is one of the simple techniques I use to scalp the EURUSD pretty damn successfully even if I do say so myself.
(Back of the net methinks)
:D:D:D
And it would have netted me another 20 PIPS (my usual target), damn shame I’m not working today then isn’t it?
I see. I see.
To illustrate my ‘understanding’ I’ve attached a 1 hour (urrrgh!!!) chart of the AEX with RSI. Let’s test ‘the theory’!!! LOL!!!
HOWEVER: I’ve now run out of cigarettes so I have NO CHOICE now BUT to go to the shops!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
aex1hourrsiroll.zip (61.9 KB)
Not being familiar with that market but first thing I see is a dog leg! RSI breach, but it’s after the kink in the middle on the second breach that it reverses, then it’s showing signs of resistance at that 338 area, but no way it’s going to reverse 'cos there is no kink, the wave has not completed so it’s long, then after that I think stay out.
Well let’s see.
I’m long now anyways (thanks to this mornings little ‘mess about’) so let’s see where things go. It’s only a test really i.e. I ordinarily wouldn’t even be looking at this timeframe but as I may have noted (either here or on another thread) I’m re-visiting one of Wilder’s systems from my ‘dark’ past with a LOT more insight (and ‘cuts and bruises’) and I noticed that this particular one (his Volatility System) (the little orange dots) appears to lend itself quite well to CERTAIN instruments on the shorter timeframes (ESPECIALLY seeing that NOW, three years later, I’ve coded the indicator CORRECTLY)!!! LOL!!!
As far as the smoking is concerned: I’m UNFORTUANATELY one of the very few people (that I personally know anyway) that GENUINELY still enjoys it (you know: you get those people that say how they WISH they COULD stop i.e. I’m not one of them)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Good for you, I used to be one of them, then I started going off them, then I used patches and the above to stop.
Hey this is good thinking, something I’ve just realised, you know how people say longer timeframes are easier to trade, because they are less choppy, let me put it to you:-
I keep saying, trade when the candles are not spikey, like they tend to be on the longer timeframes, so when the candles aren’t spikey and it’s trading time, you will be dealing with a market that is behaving like the longer timeframes giving you the long timeframe advantage on your shorter timeframe.
It has to be given that scalping profitably is the best way of trading, short trades, in and out, higher leverage.
I really couldn’t sleep with any kind of trade on.
OK: I’m back!!!
Smoking: yep I guess I’m one of those ‘die hard’ people (probably will be ‘literal’ one day)!!! LOL!!! I’m fortunate that I don’t live in the UK or the US because I know for SURE I’d have to stop given the price of cigarettes i.e. we’re still pretty lucky here (although the government is ‘trying’ i.e. every year the ‘sin tax’ goes up so it won’t be long before we’re there as well)!!! LOL!!!
Well here’s a thought (and I agree 100% with what you’re saying) i.e. I’ll not even LOOK anymore to trade an instrument (on ANY timeframe) that has long wicks on ANY side. It does indeed ‘mean’ something: I’ve just never quite figured out exactly ‘what’ but I DO know that anything that ‘behaves’ like that has ALWAYS ‘chopped’ me around!!! Maybe because of the spread!!! LOL!!! EUR/AUD, though, is a good example of what I’d NOT trade using ANY system on the 1 hour timeframe (for this very reason) but on the daily and longer it APPEARS to be a lot ‘calmer’.
On the above subject I know that one or the other of the well known ‘gurus’ (you know: the books written by ‘THOSE’ guys) did a lot of work with an indicator to measure ‘market noise’ and I seem to remember that I myself worked for a while on something or the other that took an average length of the wicks (almost like an ATR of the wicks) but I don’t remember reaping any reward from my efforts (although I didn’t finish my ‘study’).
And while we’re ‘chatting away’ here: I’ve also always been of the belief that the actual SIZE of the spread is indicative of ‘something’ but I’ve never gotten an answer to than one either. I find it hard to believe that it’s only liquidity that affects the size of the (variable) spread (that’s the reason that’s always given). Right now, for example, I could buy or sell EUR/USD with the exact same ‘ease’ as USD/RUB so where does liquidity come into this ‘picture’???
I’m the ‘other way’ i.e. there’d be no point to my getting up in the morning if I DIDN’T have a trade going!!! LOL!!! Even after a ‘wipe out’ I’ve somehow managed to be able to keep at least ONE ‘tiny’ trade going (like a single unit of Silver)!!! LOL!!!
And I have to say that this 1 hour experiment is not going well either i.e. this is starting to remind me of THOSE days where you couldn’t do anything else or THINK of anything else BUT the trade. Daily is definitely better for the ‘sanity’ (although let’s be honest: I’ve never had the privilege of knowing what it’s like to make money every few minutes on a short timeframe but I HAVE INDEED had the privilege of LOSING money every time I’ve tried)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
I have a saying, the market will continue to do what it’s doing until it does something different, silly in itself, but if you are in the midst of long wicks and no direction, it’s ranging, and ranging is not good for trading, S/R is unreliable too. It’s all those clichés, like trade with the trend, but it’s always how do you identify a trend, well that is one of the key things, you don’t see many long wicks in a nice trend.
Size of spread, here you go again with your spreads (LOL) , but yes I do think lower spreads, smoother movement, shorter wicks, but DONT think too much about it, unless you are trading my Cat and Mouse strategy and scalping 30 second trades.
Daily, hourly, 5 mins, is down to the trader, but the best kind of trading is profitable trading, just like the profit I would have made this morning if I had traded that call on the EURUSD, 20 PIP on high leverage in 20 mins or so, well if i don’t blow my own trumpet, no one else will 
Yeh well: take a look at the three attached charts (once again in the WinZip file)!!!. Two reasons: the first being that it AGAIN clearly shows what I was meaning about RSI (as a part of our ‘dogs leg’ discussion anyway). It’s almost as though there is always an ‘overshoot’ of the previous high or previous low before a major change in direction occurs. The second reason: I’ve always had a ‘penchant’ for the ‘weirder’ (‘exotic’) pairs (the charts are USD/RON, USD/RUB, and USD/TRY). Just LOOK at the way these pairs trend (and on our current subject: note the negligable length of the wicks)!!! OK: LOW SPREAD doesn’t factor in here that’s for sure (well USD/TRY is not TOO bad at 20 pips, then USD/RON at 100 pips, and USD/RUB at 1 500 pips all fixed)!!! In all fairness though: on Delta’s L2 platform I’ve seen these spreads go to ‘next to nothing’ but unfortunately it’s not my ‘trading style’ but these pairs COULD VERY POSSIBLY be ‘scalped’ using L2!!! Anyway: hell if I didn’t know any better I’d say the higher the spread the better the instrument trends and therefore the greater your chances of actually making money (well: with a trend following system anyway)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
exotics.zip (180 KB)
usdron,
I’d say where you have your rectangle, where it is overshooting, the trend is bearish, that’s the trouble I find with just using support and resistance it always seems that it pushes your luck just to stop you out, but what I see is on 1st/2nd Dec is a reversal, RSI too high and bingo a dogleg in the middle, it just looks as if it’s going off chart though that it’s starting to stall, but you can’t account for that I don’t think, you have to work on the assumption that the market will continue to do what it’s doing.
usdrub,
I just don’t like the look of the chart, it’s a ranger, and from my experience you never know really where the range is, you never know to wait until it breaks the range a little, or you need to trade just within, I don’t know, I just don’t like the look of it, too ‘spikey’
usdtry
Looks like a nice short on the 1st/2nd Dec again, but it’s a loser, nice chart though, notice another thing, and it’s similar on your ‘usdron’ from start to halfway, 1.61 to 1.5ish, on the break it goes the same distance again more or less as it did from 1.61 to 1.5,
I also think that it’s good to stick to the mainstream, EUR/USD GBP/USD and the EURJPY, but for a while now, just take my 20 PIPS a go on EURUSD, I do have a bit of a psychology issue on it though, I stop trading every week when I get to 40 PIPS 
Why not try the StochRSI on it though, it’s a damn good indicator, and I’m not the biggest fan of indicators, but the StochRSI, shows me what I’m looking for quicker than the naked chart does.
Thats my twopennys’ worth, hope it helps. (f*** apostrophe’s)
Yeh: I’m probably talking nonsense about the actual size of the spreads (so ‘do not try this at home’)!!! LOL!!!
StochRSI: I’ve ‘dabbled’ with it before but I’m TRYING to be DISCIPLINED NOW and stick with what I KNOW!!! LOL!!! But yes: I’ve seen some very interesting trading systems based on it and it alone.
And by the way: while I was on my way to the shops I kept THINKING to myself that I MUST give you the link below i.e. it’s a link to FREE (no REALLY FREE) e-books and you’ll find somewhere down the page there is an e-book entitled ‘The New Elliot Wave Rule’. I don’t know: maybe something of interest for you there??? You only have to register with them to download the book or I could do it for you I guess (if you’re interested of course). I’ve not downloaded it (Elliot Waves not being my ‘thing’ and all). I’m registered with them and no spam or any stuff like that (and I get a lot of good articles from them via e-email every other day and NO there is no ‘refer a friend program’ so that’s not why I’m sending you the link before someone else ‘starts’ with me)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
LOL!!!
(f*** apostrophe’s)
I STILL want to know WHY though!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Hey purplepatchforex,
I don’t know if you read this ‘crud’ over the weekends (or if you, unlike me, have a ‘life’) BUT I’ve attached three charts (again in the WinZip file) which YOU may find interesting!!! LOL!!! As it turns out: I have signals to short them (and the same on most of the other major indices). Well: signals to PLACE orders to short them anyway i.e. not short at market and not per the Volatility System either (not per the little ‘dots’) but from my ‘numero uno’ system (Wilder’s Swing Index System i.e. the ‘SIS’ ‘indicator’ above RSI at the bottom of the charts). If the truth be told: I missed a short signal on the NASDAQ PROBABLY because of this darn thread so I ‘jumped in’ at market (at a better price luckily).
(These are my ‘darlings’ by the way i.e. these three ARE ‘the market’ to me)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
P.S. Don’t miss my previous ‘offerings’ (above this post).
darlings.zip (179 KB)
Hey Matt,
Yep: ‘those days’ are over!!! LOL!!!
I pretty much do things this way (if I’ve missed a signal that is): I look to see if I WOULD STILL be in the trade at that point i.e. I first look to make sure that whatever trading system had generated the signal had not yet generated an opposing signal or would have already had me stopped out AND if my current entry price is equal to or better than the original entry price would have been and then and only then will I ‘jump in’ at market. I will never just ‘jump in’ LATE if that makes any sense. Basically and in this case: I’d still be in the trade (I just got in at a better price is all but not by design i.e. only because I was not concentrating)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.
Edit:
The RSI Rollercoaster trading system is an exception to the above ‘rule’ i.e. because of the way it handles risk if you’ve missed the trade to the point where you would already have been at BE then there’s no point because you’re undermining the risk management rules of the system itself.
That’s cracked me up,
Hello,
Well: it wouldn’t be the first time that I’ve missed a ‘stellar’ trade due these forums I’ll tell you. Concentration is important and something that’s rarely mentioned. And since this thread started and we’ve been having such wonderful interactions I was checking this thread before checking my charts in the morning (as noted: it’s a mistake I’ve made before and need to be watchful of)!!! One of the other problems is that the futures markets close (well: the daily charts roll) at midnight my time and very rarely am I up at that time (and experience has also taught to NOT pre-empt a signal that MAY BECOME valid during the morning hours)!!! Most times I’ll be ‘at it’ from about 06h00 in the morning and immediately check for signals. Most times it makes no difference i.e. nothing has really happened overnight so it’s not like I HAVE to stay up until midnight. I used to do this but I found it to be counterproductive i.e. after a few days you start feeling like a ‘zombie’ and you make mistakes and I’ve proved this to myself to many times for me to be wrong on this. You have to strike a balance between your ‘trading life’ and your ‘normal life’ and that’s a mistake I made a long time ago FOR a long time too i.e. I was absolutely and totally ‘consumed’ by this and that too is counterproductive e.g. you start to find / see trades that simply aren’t there. That type of thing. That’s why when I see posts made where people say that they’re ‘addicted’ or ‘obsessed’ with trading I actually ‘feel’ for them because I know that almost all of them are going lose their money UNTIL they strike this balance. That’s my personal belief anyway.
And BY THE WAY: I found another one (word)!!! I shan’t ([B]‘shall not’[/B])!!! LOL!!!
And thanks Matt for the warning and encouragement!!! That means a lot in this business given that for the most part it’s only another trader that’s going to ‘wish you well’ in this business!!! LOL!!! And yeh: if I’m REAL lucky some downward movement will ‘spook’ those Algorithmic Trading Systems and give us another ‘flash crash’!!! LOL!!! Larry Levin has spoken about (and pointed out) quite a few ‘mini flash crashes’ in the past few months!!! That’s ONE time when you ‘throw caution to the wind’ i.e. TAKE THAT PROFIT MAN!!! I was fortunate that one day (2010-05-06) when that ‘flash crash’ caused the Dow to fall a few points ‘shy’ of 1 000 points i.e. it just SO happened that I was sitting at my PC (having a few drinks i.e. it was late evening) and I remember not actually believing what I was seeing i.e. the only other time I’ve seen that happen was during the sub-prime crisis and I thought 'here we go again) but it recovered and eventually closed ONLY 435 points down that day (THIS time of course I was on the RIGHT side thank to Wilder’s SIS). The irony is that the low that it put in that day actually BECAME a ‘valid’ low eventually i.e. price retraced and eventually traded below the low of that day!!! I ‘bailed’ that night when I couldn’t take the excitement anymore and then entered again when price had ‘stablised’ i.e. just before the close. Unfortunatley: price turned the next day and that trade was a loser so the nett effect of both trades was just about BE which was dissapointing of course i.e. my ‘windfall’ was short lived!!! LOL!!! I suppose it’s like ‘damned if you do and damned if you don’t’!!! LOL!!! BUT: I have to say that I’ve also learned the hard way that BE is WAY better than a loss let’s face it no matter HOW frustrating it may be!!!
Well: I hope everybody has a good week although I fear that it’s going to be one of those SLOW and PAINFUL weeks and hopefully now that I’ve made that observation the indices will correct by at LEAST 10% or so before year end (even although APPARANTELY we’re in another bull market phase) i.e. hopefully people decide to take their profits before the end of the year. It could happen you know. And I’m starting to hear that all too familiar ‘flannelling’ here and there about us being ‘long overdue for a correction’ and the phrase ‘double dip’ seems to be becoming slowly ‘popular’ again (‘first prize’ would be a ‘double dip’). But of course this is all just ‘analyst flannelling’ so who knows what it’s worth i.e. I’ve at least learned to trust my signals more than the so-called ‘educated opinion’ of any analyst but it would be nice if they are right at least THIS time around i.e. imagine being short the Dow and it going back down 6 000 or even 5 000 at $1 per point per open position. Hell if we’re lucky it will ‘overshoot’ as per purplepatchforex’s ‘dogs leg’ theory)!!! LOL!!! If this happens though it would surely be nice for forex traders too i.e. short on the ???/JPY pairs (especially EUR/JPY)!!! So there’s my rather ‘rudimentary market analysis’!!! LOL!!! (Let’s see if I’ve ACTUALLY learned something since my little ‘debacle’ of two, or was it three, years ago)!!! LOL!!!
Regards,
Dale.